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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
Former president of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, said in an interview with Die Welt that Ukraine should not harbour illusory hopes about imminent membership of the European Union. His statement was made before a Reuters report that the EU’s executive is preparing to present an assessment of Ukraine’s progress in its membership bid next month, a key stepping stone in the bloc’s decision on whether to start accession talks with Kiev.
So far, statements by Brussels raise hopes in Kiev that the EU accession process will be quick and simple, Ischinger added, who was also a former German ambassador to the United States. But he fears that, as in the case of the Western Balkan countries, which were offered the prospect of membership in 2003, this will only lead to disillusionment. The assumption that Ukraine will be part of the union by 2030 is too optimistic, even if it were an absolutely ideal democracy without any problems.
Ukraine has problems with corruption, a weak economy and war, which pose the biggest threat to Europe’s security, Ischinger pointed out.
Furthermore, the EU accession process is quite laborious due to legal difficulties because tens of thousands of laws and regulations must be implemented. At the same time, under current conditions, if Ukraine enters the union, it will become the sole beneficiary of donor aid, and all other 27 member countries would become its donors, the German politician stressed.
He also noted that everything happening now around Europe demonstrates an “epoch change,” which is by no means a rhetorical technique that is not yet well understood in German society.
“We are seeing a first-class epochal change – a transition from an era of peace to a very dangerous and growing situation,” Ishinger said.
In this regard, Europe must seek to resolve conflicts in its neighbouring regions and involve countries in the decision-making process through other, more flexible, and free forms of cooperation.
Nonetheless, despite Ishinger’s reality check, the European Commission is set to present on November 8 its annual report detailing how far countries looking to join the 27-nation bloc have advanced in meeting the necessary economic, legal, and other criteria, with a decision expected to be made during a December 14-15 summit of EU leaders on whether to launch formal membership negotiations with Kiev.
Kiev is believed to receive a favourable recommendation, but likely under conditions of fighting corruption and improving minority rights, a vital issue for EU member Hungary since Ukraine is home to a Hungarian minority, believed to number about 80,000. It is recalled that the Venice Commission – an advisory body to the Council of Europe, a European rights watchdog with 46 member states – said on October 9 that Ukraine’s latest law amendment on national minorities was an improvement, but more needed to be done.
According to a Reuters article on October 24, the EU’s European Commission is expected to follow that opinion closely in its report.
Although separate from Ukraine’s EU accession, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on September 25 that Budapest will not support Ukraine’s membership in NATO unless it restores specific laws related to the Hungarian minority in the country.
“We do not support Ukraine in any issue in the international scene until it restores the laws that guarantee the rights of Hungarians,” Orban said during the speech to the Hungarian parliament.
The Hungarian prime minister said Ukraine wants “to transform [Hungarian schools] into Ukrainian schools,” referring to a law passed in 2017 that made Ukrainian the required language of instruction for children in state secondary education.
According to Reuters, “the Commission’s proposal for the review includes earmarking 50 billion euros ($53.15 billion) to support Ukraine through 2027, as well as assigning another 15 billion to handling unauthorised immigration.”
Besides Ukraine’s disastrous economic situation, where it is totally reliant on foreign aid, issues of minority rights, corruption and many other social issues will ensure that the war-torn country will not become an EU member state in the foreseeable future, as Ischinger highlighted. Despite this reality, the EU will continue selling the false idea that Ukraine is on the cusp of becoming a member, whilst Kiev will continue spreading this lie to Ukrainian citizens, giving them a false hope that their economic struggles will soon come to an end.
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