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Ukraine is unlikely to instigate direct Western intervention by provoking Belarus into conflict.
Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
The joint exercises between the Belarusian and Russian Air Forces, which are currently being held in Belarus, are of a defensive nature and are a response to the collective threat the two countries face from NATO and neighbouring Ukraine. These exercises are being held at a time when the West is pushing Kiev to open a new front against Belarus, which is of particular importance because Poland is massing troops on its eastern border.
Western countries have significantly increased their provocations by conducting military exercises, concentrating its troops, and amassing heavy weapons near the Russian-Belarusian borders. Just as Russia was drawn into conflict with Ukraine because of the country’s unrelenting willingness to carryout Washington’s demands, even if its contrary to its own interests, the West hopes that Belarus can be drawn into the war in a much deeper way.
The joint air force exercises began on January 16 and will last until February 1. The main goal of the exercises is to increase operational compatibility in joint combat tasks, something of critical importance given the war waging in neighbouring Ukraine, and in which Kiev is being financed by the tens of billions of dollars. None-the-less, it must be noted that the deeper integration of the Russian and Belarusian militaries began long before Moscow launched its special military operation in Ukraine.
These military exercises also raise speculation on whether Belarus will enter the Ukrainian conflict. Belarus does not want to be drawn into the conflict if it can be avoided, but President Alexander Lukashenko will certainly not shy away either if it is necessary.
Kiev finds itself in a conundrum. On the one hand, Kiev hopes that a Belarusian military operation would force a direct Western intervention in the war. However, if Ukraine is to provoke Belarus, it also runs the risk of the Belarusian military pouring into Kiev, Zhitomir and Chernigov oblasts, thus forcing Ukrainian troops and resources from other fronts, and with no guarantee of a western intervention. The West is content with seeing Ukraine destroy itself in the attempt of weakening Russia, and hopes that Belarus can also be drawn into this mess.
It is recalled that Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Yenin already told the BBC in December that Ukraine would be bolstering its border with Belarus by allocating further armed forces and ammunition, something which could be used more effectively on its battlefronts with Russia.
If Ukraine is to provoke Belarus into conflict in the hope that it will lead to Western intervention, and the West does not directly intervene, it would be a major disaster. It is this risk-reward factor that Kiev is still debating. Kiev already frequently complains about the West’s lacklustre support and it is highly unlikely that the West will begin directly intervening in Ukraine because Belarus also entered the conflict and in this case the main repercussion for Minsk will be more sanction packages.
At the same time, considering the deterioration of the situation on the western borders of Russia and Belarus in October last year, Lukashenko approved the deployment of a joint regional military group. With the aim of strengthening border defences, the total contingent of the Russian military in the joint group is about 9,000 soldiers. According to earlier announcements, the group will include about 170 tanks, about 200 armoured fighting vehicles, and 100 artillery pieces and mortars.
Lukashenko previously warned that the West is pushing Ukraine to open a front against Belarus. It cannot be discounted that NATO and some European countries are considering options for aggression against Belarus.
Apart from bordering Russia, Belarus (with an etymology meaning “White Rus”) is sandwiched between the Russophobic countries – Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Poland is amassing an army on the eastern border with Belarus, while NATO troops are stationed in the Baltic countries. The latest tanks and planes have arrived in the Baltics, suggesting that there are enough weapons to open another front against Belarus.
It is for this reason that joint air force exercises between Belarus and Russia is critical, especially as the Russian Air Force has a high-level of combat readiness and recent experience (when considering the war in Ukraine, Syria since 2015 and Georgia in 2008), something that the pilots of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics do not have. For this reason, transferring this combat experience to the Belarusians through joint exercises will also improve the defence and security of Russia.
For now, it is unclear whether Kiev will push ahead in forcing Belarus into conflict. It is highly likely that Washington wants Belarus to be dragged into the war but at the same time it seems to be reluctant to directly intervene if Lukashenko gives the order to attack Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been a useful puppet for the US thus far, however, even he must surely know that forcing Belarus to intervene in the war will only create more problems for the struggling Ukrainian military. At the same time, the Kiev regime since 2014 has been in the habit of serving foreign interests rather than their own, and for this reason, as Ukraine is unpredictable, Belarus must also have high combat readiness in case the Ukrainians do instigate provocations.
This maybe the ideal excuse for Russia to call for a second mobilisation, whether or not, it’s military industrial complex can catch up
It seems the Poles are looking for any pretext to enter the conflict and the UkRops will play on this. The first move will not come from Belarus, not unless, like the Russians in Donbass, the Belarusians are provoked into retaliation.
The polish want to take back territory in West Ukraine that is their only intrest in supporting the Ukrainian junta the people in Ukraine need to open their eyes and see this
Warsaw should be nuked first.
You are mental, right?
The planned provocation of Belarus into this conflict could be the reason for the US troop buildup in Poland with a planned intervention of NATO and dramatic escalation to justify a wider war…Russia is dealing with idiots here.
if the US had the appetite to confront Russia directly, it would have done it in Syria. Instead, when the moment of truth came, the US blinked in Syria, their military officers explained the situation to their politicians and they backed down. At the height of any escalation in Ukraine, it would just end the same way
there is much in your post , that convince me. The US push others with pleasure to war but avoid to take part directly. There are many reasons for it. In the actual situation in Ukraine it means some hope for Europe to avoid the full scale war , no matter how eager some hunger for it.
@Darius
Your close to hitting the nail on its head, but miss doing so by a few inches.
See the real planners of all this, they want you to sacrifize your life in another jewish initiated stupid world war. And they camouflage this ambition behind the phrases of “saving Ukraine”, resp. “saving Russia from being overtaken by the USA” or “we need to de-nazify Ukraine in order to save Russia” and all those obvious bullshit stories. (Bullshit as everybody can clearly see that neighter USA nor Russia are really fighting each other, but are just slowly expanding and escalating this stupid war into one big world war!)
But in order to achieve their aim, they need you to choose to step on one of their booby-traps, resp. put your believe in one of their puppet governments.
Realize: It’s all just jews, wanting you to be stupid and help the jews killing you by supporting one of their evil agendas, to get you slaughtered. It’s basically the very same narrative like they did with the so-called corona-vaccines, resp. jewish created ratpoison death-jabs, where they too gave the option to their stupid christian victim-masses to choose between ‘eighter taking the Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer-BionTech, ModeRNA or the AstraZeneca or Sputnik V death jab’.
What most here still not realize is that it is not Russia who is targeted by the so-called Ukraine War. It is Europe !!!
Would the USA (which is a fully jewish controlled entity) indeed want to fight Russia ( which too is a completely jewish controlled entitiy) then the USA would of course do it with effective means and gear.
Remember that in 1944, with the Normandy D-Day operation, USA was landing onto the beaches 40.000 US soldiers every single day into Europe against the National-Socialist German Wehrmacht.
Whereas now USA has trained an “unbelievable dangerous” number of 500 Ukrainian troops in Germany Grafenwöhr US base to fight in Ukraine. UK announced having trained 20.000 Ukraine troops, over the past 6-8 month, which will be ready tfor combat within the next weeks. This all knowing that Russia has just drawn in 300,000 (!) conscripts and thrown them to the front.
So for all who have at least 1 functioning braincell left, it should be absolutely clear, that USA isn t fighting Russia, and Russia isn t fighting the USA. They didn t do in World War 1, they didn t do in World War 2, and of course they do not do in World War 3 eighter ! Instead they, like always, work hand-in-hand in order to destroy those who are not accepting jewish supremacy !
Btw. Europe too is already jew controlled but fell to them only in 1945, and the western civilization stemming from Europe, and the anti-jewish knowledge is so deeply routed inside its culture that the jews are very afraid that – especially now after the vaccine-jab-genocide, which the jews commited, the europeans will wake up to who did this to them, and again start rising and fighting the jews to the death !!! That’s why the jews want to eradicate Europe first !!!
See, for example, if USA was truely wanting to prepare Europe for fight with Russia, then USA of course would do the following:
For example: Pushing for nationalism in whole of Europe in order to create a militant maximum anti-russian sentiment inside Europe, and get the populations of the different nations as menly, tough, war-ready and battle-hardened as possible. Get the men to become men again, istead of pussies. Train the armies of that nations intensively, and enlarge their size by a factor of at least 20 !
But what is the reality ? USA pushes for sanctions of Russia which are by design only hitting Europe, not Russia, USA forbids EU to buy russian gas and oil, but USA itself buys and imports large amounts of russian gas and oil and is even expanding it. Moreover USA pushes for homo-globo agenda, degeneration, poisoning of European food, want from 24th Jan. 2023 the europeans to eat vermin, which are mixed into the powdered grain products, bread, potato-mixes etc. etc. Nationalists are hunted down, incarcerated, murdered etc. in Europe (The same direction, btw. is happening even inside the USA)
So here we see it clearly that the USA does the direct oppossite of preparing Europeans for war with Russia. Instead they are weakening Europe and its people in every possible way, in order to make them easy prey, and destroy them completely.
And still you people here not realize that they are in cahoots? Can t you see from all these facts, that they are both working together !???
Why is all that, you ask ? Because both USA and RU are controlled by Jews, which want to first eradicate Europe, then the USA and Japan, then that little bit what s left of fake-christian Russia, then Islam, and finally all none-jews apart from 500 mio, who will be needed as servile slaves and whores to the jewish self-proclaimed masterrace.
The ADL chief, and living scum, Abraham Foxman told this full openly in 25th Aug. 1998 in New York already, but people are to ignorant to listen to announcements of these disgusting, maximum satanist, hook-nosed demons.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/5y9wH5wgTkRv/
And another one, Moscow’s ex prime Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt, and also good friend of Mr. Putin, goes even more direct on it, listen here: https://www.bitchute.com/embed/U1gOYHsx3nVC/
Or Here too: https://birthofanewearthblog.com/the-jewish-agenda-to-destroy-the-white-race/
Therefore forget all the western (US & EU propaganda) as well as the eastern (Russian & Chinese propaganda) as behind them its just jews who not want to de-nazify or de-russianize your countries, but in fact want christians to slaughter each other. They want that you, as a christian, go out and slaughter your christian neighbors, landsmen and brothers on their (the jews) behalf ! That’s the cause of it all. Therefore, wake up and DON ‘ T do it !!! If you start see through the fog of jewish lies and there media propaganda and refuse to kill your fellow christian brothers and sisters, these jewish vermin are the fucked ones.
And, god-willing, all christians and muslims one day will unite and hunt down all these hook-nosed filth of the earth, till the last cockroach is eradicated from the face of the earth, and mankind will be free of these satanic world-parasites once and for all.
I think the situation could be first dramatic after the Ukrainian military collapses. The run to share the spoils of war in the “former” west Ukraine will start. Sure the banderovtsi around Lvov will be not amused , and considering there are hundred thousands of them or more already in Poland , it could be very unpleasant for this part of Europe. I am sure the US and NATO will disappear and leave their “allies” alone.. I can very well imagine , the half-hidden mobilisation in Poland is not primarely because of the imaginery attack of Russia (promoted daily on TV) , but rather because of evtl problems with nationalistic Ukrainians (to not use the word ‘nazi’). The MSM propaganda in Poland can’t delete the history of conflicts between the two nations , and the most Poles are well aware of this.
It will end like Afghanistan.
@Chris Gr.
Yes, the invader gets beaten back, and is finally forced to leave the foreign country, which he tried to permanently occupy.
should have ended the war long time ago, RF lost precious time with bla bla
the Ukrainian front line is seemingly full of holes already being easily penetrated by Russian recon groups, and the Ukrainians are pushing ahead with a 12th mobilisation, their worst yet. The new Western tanks will also be crewed by novices, too heavy for the terrain in spring, with increasingly poor logistics and complicated supplies of many different types from NATO. Ukraine is softening up into a punching bag and a bag of weaknesses rather than the carefully laid trap for Russian troops that it was when the war started
Tak dúfa, hm … stačí aby Banderovské fašistické svine vystrelil ešte aspoň dva krát, ako to už raz urobili na Bieloruské územie a môžu sa dožiť, že Bielorusko vstúpi do ŠVO ktorú vedie Rusko!!!
The title is full of bs. Who wrote this crap? The west doesn’t need any reason to escalate this war. They can escalate it with any false flag bs they make up. Matter fact, they started this war and they are escalating it.
This war is not about Ukraine or Ukrainians. Ukraine is just the tool the US uses to harm Russia. This war is about maintaining the power of the dollar as the world’s only reserve currency so they can keep printing and robbing the world. The conflict between US and Russia had started when Russia started dumping the US dollar. We all know why Lybia went down, and not even JFK could be safe when he messed with the banking cartel.
US wants the death of many Russians, Belarusians, Ukrainians and Poles it seems.
Ah, actually, it‘s Russia that needs Belarus‘ support for opening a new front against Ukraine.