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Prolonging the conflict in Ukraine is the worst alternative for all sides.
Written by Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.
Recently, some American pro-war activists wrote a letter entitled “U.S. must arm Ukraine now, before it’s too late”, in which they advocate an increase in aid to Kiev so that the situation of the conflict is reversed. The authors believe that the conflict is at a turning point and that aid must be provided now in order for Russia to be defeated. However, military experts disagree with this argument and say that there is no reason to try to prolong the fighting.
Despite all the difficulties the Western world has faced as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, many people still insist that aid to Kiev must continue – and increase – until Moscow is defeated. The main rhetoric of the pro-war militants is that Russia would not just win the conflict in Ukraine but would expand its operation to other countries in Europe, which is why it needs to be defeated now – which they consider possible by sending arms to Kiev.
“For the U.S. and NATO, that time is now — and the place is Ukraine, a large country whose population understands that its choice is either defeating Putin or losing their independence and even their existence as a distinct, Western-oriented nation. With the necessary weapons and economic aid, Ukraine can defeat Russia. If it succeeds, our soldiers are less likely to have to risk their lives protecting U.S. treaty allies whom Russia also threatens. What does defeat for Putin look like? The survival of Ukraine as a secure, independent, and economically viable country”, the authors of the open letter asking more weapons to Ukraine say.
In fact, this rhetoric is absolutely unfounded in all its points. First, there is no reason to believe in an expansion of the Russian special military operation to NATO countries. Moscow just started military incursions into Ukraine because Kiev left no other alternative with its continuous policy of killing Russian citizens, but there is currently no equivalent situation in other countries. However, more important than that is to note the lack of realism on the part of the pro-Western militants in believing in the possibility of “defeating” Russia, despite the current stage of the conflict.
Russia did not mobilize all of its military power to attack Ukraine, but the small portion of the Russian forces sent to the operation was efficient in annihilating Ukrainian main bases of resistance. At the current stage of the conflict, there is no possibility of reversing the military situation. Kiev is defeated and only postpones the inevitable decision to surrender because it continues to receive Western weapons, guaranteeing a kind of “survival”, prolonging the battles indefinitely, even without a chance of victory.
This is the assessment of any expert who analyzes the case honestly and without ideological emotions. For example, Douglas Macgregor, war veteran and former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, believes that the sending of weapons will not bring any positive change to Kiev due to the human capital deficit, both quantitative (with the low number of active Ukrainian soldiers), and qualitative (considering the tactical and operational inability of these fighters to reverse the conflict and even their lack of instruction in using the weapons they receive from the West).
With that, the weapons would only serve to prolong, not to effectively change the current military situation. He also claims that even if Kiev were to achieve major victories, the absence of human capital would not allow it to rebuild its troops after the long battles, while Russia, whose current combat mobilization represents only a small fraction of its military potential, would have the ability to recover quickly and thus regain the positions eventually lost.
“The hard truth is the introduction of new weapon systems won’t change the strategic outcome in Ukraine. Even if NATO’s European members, together with Washington, D.C., provided Ukrainian troops with a new avalanche of weapons, and it arrived at the front instead of disappearing into the black hole of Ukrainian corruption, the training and tactical leadership required to conduct complex offensive operations does not exist inside Ukraine’s 700,000-man army. In addition, there is an acute failure to recognize that Moscow would react to such a development by escalating the conflict. Unlike Ukraine, Russia is not currently mobilized for a larger war, but it could do so quickly”, he says.
Macgregor claims that the letter written by the pro-war militants “reinforces the failure” of Ukraine. For him, the conflict is at a decisive moment, in which it must be ended, not prolonged. He still believes that the reasons that led to this conflict – NATO’s incursions on the Russian border – were disastrous and unnecessary and that Western countries should give up further provocations against Moscow. The best solution, he says, is to support the Austrian model of neutrality as a solution for Ukraine before the country is completely destroyed.
“Ukraine’s war with Russia is at a decisive point. It is time to end it. Instead, the authors of the letter seek to reinforce failure. They are demanding a deeply flawed strategy for Ukraine that will lead in the best case to Ukraine’s reduction to a shrunken, land-locked state between the Dnieper River and the Polish border (…) Expanding NATO to Russia’s borders was never necessary and has become disastrous for Europe. The longer the war with Russia lasts the more likely it becomes that the damage to Ukrainian society and its army will be irreparable. Neutrality on the Austrian model for Ukraine is still possible”, he adds.
In fact, this opposition of opinions reflects the old debate between realists and warmongers. Anyone who really understands war and military strategy knows that there is no other solution than the neutralization of Ukraine and the end of Western expansionism. Those who think through liberal idealism, however, advocate fighting “to the last Ukrainian”.
Prolonging the conflict is not good for either side: it increases the destruction in Ukraine, perpetuates the suffering of the people, raises the expenses of western countries and forces Russia to mobilize a greater part of its military forces.
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I don’t see how “neutrality” is possible for Ukraine when it’s ruled by neo-nazi genocidal idiots. Neutrality in Ukraine would require a regime change + hunt and extermination of all extremists elements and pro-western mercenaries. Which is something that only Russia is interested in and is doing right now. However, by the time this is done, Russia has already invested too much to just settle for “neutrality” for Ukraine, instead Ukraine will be turned into a Russian republic (maybe as part of federation, confederation, autonomy or semi-autonomy) as this is the reward Russia deserves for ridding Earth of this fascist scourge.
Well said. Russia will have to liberate all of Ukraine. This is because any part of Ukraine that is left standing will invite the gutless NATO terrorists to again hide behind an ISIS 2.0 in Ukraine. This the current situation.
Russia has no inclination to conquer NATO countries, if only to avoid governing the majority of insane NATO citizens who believe in more than two genders, LOL.
Slava Rossiya.
Even the rest of the world.
That is correct. I have many times stated that the only solution to the Ukraine problem is for Putin to achieve all his objectives. Just to liberate the Donbass will not be enough, for the attacks from Ukraine will never stop. He must instead liberate ALL of Ukraine and then, when the time is right, maybe after a couple of years, reunite ALL of Ukraine with Russia, which would then prevent foreign influence from continuing its attack upon Russia. Ultimately I would like to see both the Ukraine and Belorussia rejoining the Russian federation. Only then can the all people of Ancient Rus be able to feel safe and secure within their own borders again.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahagahagahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahagahagahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahagahagahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahagahagahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Like they gay useless faggots NATO and its useless leaders are!
He who laughs last will have the best laugh. We all laughed at Vietnam, we all laughed at Afghanistan and we’re saving the best for last, no hurry.
you don’t need to conquer anything if you make you enemy expend all his ordinance inside a country of your choice and then slowly bleed the country to bankruptcy. And that took no time to achieve in Ukraine. Z
Then why did Putin agree with Ukraine on resuming exports from the ports, helping it gaining income again? Because he knows the USA won’t allow Odessa to be taken and Ukraine becoming landlocked! No matter how strong Russia is on its borders, it can’t face the entire NATO and get out of the fight a winner. It’s not the old NATO vs the USSR, it’s the enlarged NATO vs Russia, the balance is tipped!!!
I could almost feel your tangible thought over this crisis presenting the glaring facts of the situation, far way sensible than the Kremlin bigwigs tactics on how to deal with the outlaws.
No, even if Russia occupies all of Ukraine, the Nazis will just find refuge in other counties!!! Putin knows this very well, that’s why he started the opperation asking only for Donbass and “denazification” and “demilitarization”. Of course, now he wants Kherson and Zaporizhia too, but he doesn’t want to “conquer” more of Ukraine, EXACTLY because he knows all that.
Neutrality in the Ukraine would work much the same as neutrality in Sweden and Finland worked. Finland actually signed treaties with the Soviet Union in which it is stated that they would forever remain neutral.
Neutrality in Finland and Sweden never really worked. They were always hostile to Russia/USSR, something we can see even clearer today as they both are planning to join Nato, the most evil organisation of our times, and by our friend Thoughtful correctly identified as the Black Beast of the Bible, a demonic entity from Hell!
The deal wasn’t to get “demilitarized”, the deal was neutrality, and it worked fine for 70 years. The deal for Ukraine is “demilitarization”, like Japan or Cyprus were, under Security Warranties of third countries. Of course, there’s also a real danger here that the USA/Ukraine will find a way to instigate a false flag attack and those countries will be obliged to act as Security Warrantors, and start war with Russia.
What did Turkey do last time it was such a Warrantor? It occupied 1/3 of Cyprus! What will it do after a decade, when it’ll have created nuclear weapons in secret? It’ll occupy Crimea!
It worked fine for 70 years, they never attacked the USSR or Russia.
I don’t see how “neutrality” is possible for Ukraine when it’s ruled by Jewish supremacist neo-nazi genocidal idiots.
Yse to much Russian blood has been spilled to give up anything.
The President and PM of Ukraine are are Jews. 90% of all government officials are Jews. Kolomoski is a Jew oligarch who created funds and leads the Azov and all of Judeo Nazis
I think you’re right but I do feel it will advance no further than Kiev. What’s left of the Western rump will be shared between Poland and Hungary.
When Ukrainian Khrushchev in 1954 annexed Ukraine from the Soviet Union, he took lands that were Russian and if you factor in the Neo-Nazis, this has served as the catalyst for the problems we’re experiencing today. Also, if the US and her European vassals hadn’t encroached on Russian security, we would not have this proxy war.
It’s going to end badly for this US regime, their economy will implode and all her colonies will be pulled into the black hole and never to emerge. Israel without her hosts will be no more.
You’re right. And apparently you had the patience to read the article, which I did not, after the first sentence, which sounded like Western propagana.
No!!! Ukraine must agree to “denazification” on its own and implement it on its own. Just like Erdogan did with the Gulen network in Turkey.
Otherwise, if Russia contacts the “denazification”, the terrorists will find refuge in other countrie and even transmit their ideology to the PEOPLE of other countries, so Russophobia will become widespread just like Nazism and fascism were in Europe pre-WWII. And then what? Will Russia invade those countries too?
Can’t you see that violence only creates more violence, and war more war? Ukrainian children have been living 6 months in war, and they play “killing bad Russians” already!!!
Denazification on its own is no longer enough. The idea it self of there being a sovereign state by the name Ukraine must no longer be allowed. All of it must be returned back to the Motherland, Russia. Only Russia can be allowed to exist. If that can’t be achieved, their will be no peace for anybody in Russia or Ukraine. The scumbags of Nato are not going to let go of their plans of destroying Russia, and therefore Ukraine must cease to exist, forever. Even their flag has to be outlawed, to prevent any resurgence of Ukrainian patriotism. Only Russia can be allowed to exist! Nothing else.
lgbt amerikan cesspool disintegrating—-Rome burns—Nero sniffs coke—wastes resources on lost wars—I celebrate another amerikannot failure
A big problem is that the US UK and satanists in our world keep on imagining threats from everywhere and everyone and will NOT make peace but constantly dominate the world in tyranny. We need to have the governments and financial systems taken out. the WEF IMF the banks, everything must collapse. Russia should have seen the writing on the world by the time that Libya and Syria and the coup in Ukraine occurred. the people of the US have taken a long time to see the evil of their own nation. the UK still have not understood JUST how much tyranny we are living under
You mentioned Libya in your comment and I then remembered when Dmitri Medvedev was president over Russia, something the western powers took advantage of by killing Gaddafi and destroying the whole country. Fortunately Putin got back in charge of his homeland just in time to save Syria from being destroyed in a similar fashion. I then fully understood what an exceptional man he was and still is, for he has done his best to keep the Nato-criminals in check ever since, especially now when he is keeping their evil forces at bay in Ukraine. He cannot be replaced, I don’t think.
You’re right, he cannot be replaced. The moment he’s gone, the Russian Federation may perish because all powers will attack to grab a piece of its immense wealth… (yes, even China)
I’m an optimist, and I firmly believe that the great man, who according to Kadyrov has planned ahead for Russia’s next 100 years, will find the right man or woman to take over the presidency! Putin will probably select his own successor, perhaps he already has? But he is not ready to abandon his duty any time soon, of that I’m sure. He is like Marcus Aurelius , a stoic, and has accepted his fate in life and he will carry on doing his duty as president for as long as he is healthy.
Russia looks reasonably comfortable in having a ‘mild’ war with the Nato bloc with Kyiv-Nato Axis Ukraine acting as the proxy and close-proximity (to Russia) battlefield. Freezing the conflict would be pointless for Moscow now, so continuing a low to medium intensity war is preferable. U.S. had a chance to score a lot of prestige over Moscow back in March, now the wars continuance is draining prestige away from Washington and economically destroying her allies.
I see the Russians (going forwards after the Donbas is cleared of Kyiv’s forces) liberating a major southern or eastern Ukrainian city at a tempo of one every three months, taking the steam out of the collective Wests enthusiasm for the fight further. Winter suits urban warfare fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine.
so Russia humiliates us; we have popcorrn —new amerikan porn: “double taliban in Porkland orygun—antifa fascists raped by proud boy”
To think that Putin’s ambition stop at the Dnieper or even the western border of Ukraine would be naive and show that the author hasn’t read Putin’s own words. Putin insists that NATO be rolled back to 1991 borders and that all states adjoining Russia reinvigorate their Russian Orthodox affiliations. But this author knows this very well. Putin seeks a greater Russia. Not just a combination of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, but a reincorporation of the Polish-Lithuanian lands, and the Caucasus all the way to Iran, and the central Asian republics all the way to China. This author seeks to disarm the defense of Ukraine through the lie that Putin does not have broader territorial objectives. He does. Facing him with resolve in the Ukraine is clearly the correct policy.
Not possible to stop the Russians. Dream on.
Total nonsense! Putin didn’t even intent to conquer the whole of Ukraine, which is why he didn’t unleash war but only a limited SMO. He wouldn’t have even started the SMO, if the Minsk agreements had been implemented and Donbass had been granded the autonomy it had been seeking!
Putin’s official request to the USA for a stable European security architecture was no new NATO members, and retreat of the deployed NATO forces in the countries that became members after 1997.
Please give me a link to Putin’s writings that say those things you claim.
as close are american guns to Moscow, there should be some russian guns near Washington, I think
When will people understand, or at least admit, that the West will not permit the war to end until Pooty-Poot “gives back” Crimea. That is, and has always been, the only goal of this shitstorm.
They don’t care about prolonging the inevitable. Frankly, they is fine with watching the carnage continue. They love it. These monsters see it as a win-win. More looting and fleecing of the US/UK Treasury ensure more kickbacks and higher bonuses when they join the private defense industry.
They don’t care if they have to switch gears for the thousandth time and claim their strategy all along has been to slow-bleed the Rooskies. They’ll tell you they knew this was going to be a long slog from the get-go. Delaying the inevitable/kicking the can down the road has been the modus operandi of the US of Aers for the past 20 years, at least, because they, the rulers, know they aren’t their father’s generation, and are incompetent at building back anything, let alone better. They know nothing of the world and don’t care to know anything that will shatter their fake fictional world order. Heck, even if they were interested in doing things differently, of fixing things, solving problems, repairing fractures, which they ain’t, they know they (at least in the West) lack the capacity and capability of effectuating anything better.
This proxy war campaign in Ukraine is another regime change in disguise, the US won’t stop until it controls the whole planet. Putin and his brethren will emulate the brave souls of WW2 and once again, save the world from Corporate Globalism, which is the new buzzword for fascism.
Ukraine should ‘confiscate’ Russian gas – official Kiev has the right to siphon off supplies destined for the EU, a Ukrainian politician claims
Kropti want to steal it before anyone else does. I dont think it will be on much longer.
This is all correct!
bingo: ‘Western expansionism’. not economy, military/army, but bureaucracy. because they serve no useful function, and never voluntarily disband, all bureaucrats care about is empire building. EU, NATO, expanded to Russia’s border, because that’s what bureaucracies do. Protesters overthrowing Europe’s ‘leaders’, prime ministers and presidents, won’t get rid of the ‘deep state’, nor london banksters.
the excuse for continuing to supply arms to Ukraine claiming it will save “our soldiers lives” later is the same entropic reasoning that was used to drop nuclear bombs on Japan in WW II.
The war with Japan was already lost, when the soviets rounded up the Japanese army in Manchuria in less than 10 days. The Yanks dropping the A-bomb was really about a demonstration of strength.
The A-bomb was dropped to curb Soviet global ambitions and Truman wanted to remind Stalin that the US and her Trans-Atlantic regime were the new top dogs, Churchill even planned to bomb the Soviet Union after the war.
This had all changed when Stalin demonstrated they too had nuclear weapons. Churchills egomaniac ambitions were in tatters.
This shitfaced buffoon still high and full of exultation from “winning the War”, has fallen into rapid decline. Churchill and his fellow islanders were now the proverbial donkey grazing on an open field. Jackasses have no importance on the world stage. Today, Britain still can’t accept her admin position and continues to meddle in the affairs of others.
It won’t!…
And here are the two major reasons “why” –
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/944-trillion-reasons-why-fed-quietly-bailing-out-hedge-funds
https://southfront.org/reason-u-s-stays-in-syria-revealed-to-steal-its-oil/
And why Russia WILL NEVER be allowed to trade it’s oil in anything other than $USD…
Because if the F-U.K.U.$./EU contingent can’t have it ALL they will prefer their own “$”uicide!…
P.S.
To pootie-poot aka “Ostrich legs”… You NEVER should have courted these A$$hat$ this long https://theduran.com/putin-911-not-inside-job/. Especially allowing THEIR markets to set the price for YOUR commodities…
Because had you and your government been relentless in pursuing truth and justice to the events of 9/11 -especially after the “official” Commission Report came into being, you would have cemented your place in history as a Leader of the Free World!…
It’s really a low life move to sit on the sidelines and cheer on a war. Especially if you’re white and the war is between whites.
But the article was written by DEBRA CAGAN, JOHN HERBST AND ALEXANDER VERSHBOW. Cagan is obviously a Jew, possibly her family changing the name from Kaganovich to not link it to Soviet commissar Lazar Kaganovich. Wikipedia did not provide her background, but the ugly face say’s it all. Herbst is and Vershbow are also Jewish and has all the Wikipedia hints alluding to Jewish networking helping them up the ladder.
The issue is, why listen to Jews, or people that won’t name the Jew?
If pro-war militants really are convinced that Russia will not stop after winning in Ukraine, let Nato wait until Russia attacks a Nato member before retaliating massively. These pro-war arguments are utterly poor and just hypocritical
“Despite all the difficulties the Western world has faced as a result of the conflict in Ukraine …” begins the article. Malarkey! Had the West never interfered nor imposed sanctions on Russia, it would have faced no difficulties at all. This is enemy propaganda. Why does SF publish this stuff? Which side are they on, really? Or is this some kind of “We’re showing both sides to look objective” kind of rubbish?
“the training and tactical leadership required to conduct complex offensive operations does not exist inside Ukraine’s 700,000-man army”
No need to exist in Ukraine, NATO is the one conducting the complex operations, Ukrainians are just the cannon fodder.
Thats no military expert.