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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
The European Union plans to use the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 Summit in India to establish contact with African leaders on the sidelines of the event. At the same time, the G20 Summit is not expected to reach a joint statement due to stark differences over the war in Ukraine.
“With both the Chinese and Russian presidents staying away from the two-day gathering in New Delhi, the EU wants to seize the moment, according to people familiar with the preparations who asked not to be named discussing internal strategy,” Bloomberg reported.
The outlet reported that the EU wants to show that it is serious about redefining its partnership with Africa despite the painful legacy of colonialism. According to the publication’s sources, those expected to participate in the meetings include the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen; the President of the European Council, Charles Michel; President of France, Emmanuel Macron; and the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz. On the African side, participants will include the leaders of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Comoros, as well as the current president of the African Union.
Thus, the agency reports that the agenda of the meetings will include the possible consequences of the suspension of the grain agreement, efforts to reform the global financial architecture, improving conditions for private investments and infrastructure projects in Africa, and the situation in the Sahel region.
At the same time, German Chancellor Scholz also wants to take advantage of the meeting to prepare for the international conference to be held in Berlin on November 20, in which European and African leaders want to promote the initiative to improve the environment for sustained investment in the private sector in African countries, including in infrastructure.
The G20 Leaders’ Summit, which will take place between the 9th and 10th of September in New Delhi, will be marked by the division of the group of the world’s largest economies due to Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine as there has not even been a single joint statement agreed upon in the approximately 20 ministerial meetings held under India’s G20 presidency this year.
Instead of President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang will be representing China. At the same time, Moscow has already stated that Putin will not attend, indicating neither country will be part of any consensus. This could create an opening for Western leaders to engage more closely with their African counterparts, especially since US President Joe Biden and major European leaders will attend.
However, the EU will not be able to shake off suspicions about European neo-colonialism in Africa when considering France’s actions and behaviour at this current time in West Africa. Therefore, it is unlikely that the EU will woo Africa away from Russia and China during the G20 Summit given that neither country has a colonial history on the continent and France is behaving like a coloniser in Niger.
Nonetheless, the two-day summit could become a platform for Western nations and their allies, such as Japan, to dominate proceedings, particularly around the Ukraine crisis. Reuters reported, citing analysts, that a failed summit, meaning that a conclusion statement is not given, would expose the limits of cooperation between Western and non-Western powers and prompt countries to double down on the groups they are more comfortable with.
To tackle global threats, “breaking off into Western and non-Western blocs isn’t what you want,” said Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, to Reuters.
“If the leaders’ summit is a flop, New Delhi and especially [Indian Prime Minister Narendra] Modi will have suffered a major diplomatic, and political, setback.”
Speaking on the matter, an Indian official said that at last year’s G20 Summit in Bali, Russia and China were more flexible.” However, as the war in Ukraine has raged for a year and a half, countries “are not agreeing even to the language used in the Bali Declaration.”
Although G20 proceedings might be dominated by Western interests, especially when relating to Ukraine, it will not deter Moscow from continuing its mission to liberate Ukrainian-held areas of Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporozhye, and to demilitarise the neighbouring country’s military. For this reason, Putin does not need to attend the G20 Summit when there are more pressing matters relating to Ukraine to attend to rather than arguing with stubborn Western leaders about the war.
what’s to discuss? the first obvious step is to stop exploiting them through quislings. until you’ve done that anything you “discuss” is just bs.
how typical of western leaders to put their failures on someone else’s shoulders. is india now responsible for western catastrophic diplomacy or lack thereof in the last year?