Now, when the city of Aleppo is under the control of the Syrian army, various media outlets and analysts are discussing where pro-government forces is going to deliver their next attack against militant groups. Some claim that the Syrian army and its allies will rapidly and effectively deliver a series of wide-scale military operations against al-Qaeda linked militants and take control of significant areas in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib.
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These suggestions are good-looking for the Syrian government and allow to make nice headlines, but they are hardly based on the real analysis of the situation on the ground.
While SF already released a detailed military analysis of the situation after the liberation of Aleppo on December 14, the project’s team wants to clarify some issues and provide additional details on the topic.
First of all, SF wants to emphasize a low possibility of a government forces significant advance in the province of Idlib and the western part of Aleppo province in the nearest future (at least a few of months):
…Before launching new full-scale operations, the Syrian military and its allies will need to regroup, resupply and rotate their forces and to improve security of the Aleppo countryside.
The Syrian army has to secure areas close to the city of Aleppo to prevent militants froms shelling the residential areas of the city. The Military Research Center, Mansoura, al-Rashidin 4, al-Rashidin 5 and Khan al-Assal will likely become the main targets of this operation.
Then, government forces will be bound to halt active offensive actions in the area for a few months. The Syrian government needs to solve humanitarian problems in Aleppo and to restore the city infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the Syrian military will rotate and resupply its forces. It’s important to note that military units that participated in the Aleppo operation will need time to get a rest and to receive reinforcements.
Active military actions could continue in the northwestern Aleppo countryside – al-Layramoun – and in the northern part of Aleppo province where Turkey-led forces will develop the operation around al-Bab (and most likely seize it if there are no additional political agreements on the issue).
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An important task of the Syrian government is to liberate a number of pockets near Damascus and Homs, what will allow to free forces and means for active military operations across the country. The area of Palmyra will also be a high priority because its fall to ISIS is a major PR blow to Syria and Russia.
Thus, the active phase of military operation in the western and southwestern parts of Aleppo province and an advance in the direction of Idlib can be launched in about 4 months.
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First thing to do is to protect Aleppo. “Rebels” will continue to attack Aleppo.
Totally agree. Also an attack on Idlib would be a sensitive issue for Turkey, so probably they will delay it for some time.
SAA must be splitted in 4 parts.
First part, protect Aleppo at all cost by creating a buffer zone. Second part, go to Al-Bab Third part, take Palmyra. But to take Palmyra, you must push either north and south Palmyra. Otherwise, you can’t protect Palmyra even if you take it. Four part must keep fight in Damascus pockets and north Homs.
Al-Bab is not that much of a priority right now. If the SAA go there, they will be escalating tensions with Turkey. Let the kurds, the turks ans isis fight each other
Al Bab should have been attacked since months to cut FSA going down.
After that, FSA will have fought against Kurds. And then, Kurds would have regretted to betray Assad. And then, you make an alliance with SDF and you fuck USA.
The main goal is to expell USA. Assad and Putin must make allies with SDF and real patriotic opposition. You must destroy or infiltrate every US support group in Syria. That’s the main goal.
Palmyra attack was poorly planned. just look at the map. If you take Palmyra like Syria and Russia did last time, you are an easy target.
4 months? No way. Geopolitical events will change the whole situation, if they have not already. Government calling massive reserves back to service has a purpose. I am sure the purpose will be to start new offensives.
Ask why Russia so silent as Turkey stumble to Al Bab and divide Kurdi? Next is why Russia silent about US Airbases in NE Syria, …SAS roaming Der Ezzor and Jordan border? ISIS assault on Palmyra had key real time sat coverage and probably US drones hit key SAA Positions. …Russia silent. ..
I’ve been following this conflict since Libya. .. It’s all about Energy and Future Energy routes. Have posted the Syria oil/nat gas concessions map several times this website.
Having worked the front end on world oil/nat gas process. ..can tell you the Oil men and Bankers will go to any extreme to win… And screw their own over ….is Game on….just ask BP when they lost all those Russian Concessions and no one in that boardroom came to save their @ss.
I’ve built Frac modules for Iran before Gulf War 1. Iran screwed us over and over with contract changes and wait in the hotel lobby 6 hours. Then Gulf War broke out….Ban on shipping in the Gulf. Iran’s near completed Frac modules for slant drilling oil fields sat in the shop yard for years. Iran screwed themselves! ! : )
This is the way of things….and yes….send death squads or bomb them to same them is cover for The Jaded actors in the Oil and Banker boardroom.
If your starting to notice something fishy going on with Syria…. You are above the Curve : )
Thank you for the interesting comments. If you are ready to explain your point of view more detailed, SF can to turn it into a separate article.
The Syrian oil nat/gas concessions map I’ve linked to. That’s 2010. https://therearenosunglasses.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/french-oil-maurel-and-prom-captures-oil-and-gas-exploration-rights-in-syrian-war-zone/ Highlight that the Offshore bid Map was taken down .
These concession blocks in Syria May have performance conditions to each, And timeline.. IE. …contracts and rights can possibly be annulled overtime. ..or via other Legal contingency.
Certain powers were rushing like hell ** to tumble Assad regime, While others….are quite content to let things go on a while longer. There is also the hypothetical Israeli interest in just keep the ME roiled In Chaos and conflict,…which is different than the oil player for Syria.
Decades ago doing Seismic survey in Northern Canada, Another Geophysical Seismic crew would arrive and shoot the very same track My Firm ( Bendix United Geophysical ) had just completed over such and such Concession leg. One can note from the Syrian map that there are numerous concessions Allocate to different named groups. Which connect back to foreign governments. Erdogan may only be divide Kurdi. ..or…he may be getting that …and the connector Leg of a future pipeline route. There’s lots to speculate … It’s too early to make the call in my opinion. Something to do with Iran and Turkey and the Energy play. Israel…France….US oil group and Saudi may have to negotiate for Future access of Syrian Energy. The attempt to regime change and winners divvy up the spoils is now stopped. Unless the US enters on war footing and ends Assad. Some US oil giants have previous contracts with Russian oil projects. Sanctions and geopolitical tensions injure them, Yet we see that this gambit is played on Europe where Germany especially Takes a major financial hit by staying under obligations. Some in Europe are tiring of the game and want the sanctions lifted. The price** to play the pipeline and land concessions game over Syria Is compounding too. Some groups probably never anticipated the cost would be so high, And that they would loose : )
The Syrian map is a fact….yet we have much to speculate. ..and watch
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/08/201285133440424621.html
Usefull info article from 2012 to compare with other pipelineistan articles in recent years. Pondering… Erdogan does not to be bypassed** …or bypassed completely by pipeline routes. It’s possible He has had to go from Caliph to court official and negotiate with Russia and Iran….that He be in the future game. Looking back….Assad was smart to work numerous energy tracks. ..which were In motion….until certain powers tantraum. Here we consider who** might have leverage on Erdogan to suddenly turn on Assad Who He had previously invested Turkeys energy future with. Maybe an insider will point to who convinced Erdogan to betray and then be about Oil theft,…arm Jihadi and murder Syrians. Erdogan is a war criminal… Does not sit well with people that Erdogan gets deals and other negotiation status.
The SAA needs to crush those last few pockets of terror around major cities and open the damascus Aleppo highway. Once thats done Idlib will be a tiny Talibanesque terror enclave which abuses its people, won’t be able to hide its crimes and will sooner or later lose international support. ISIS can’t exist for long either and Saudi and Qatar will grow disinterested once its proven they cannot take Damascus.
There are now 20,000 people evacuated from Aleppo. I have no idea how many more are waiting. Douma has nearly twice the population and that population is much more supportive of the uprising than that in East Aleppo. So the fall of Douma might cause more than a 100,000 refugees. It doesn’t seem wise to me to cause that – certainly not in the winter.
So my expectation would be that the government tightens the siege on Douma and the rebel held area around Yarmouk in South Damascus and forces them into a kind of semi-truce. It can then focus on the other rebel held areas.
In the meantime there would be negotiations for some political solution.
Did it ever occur to the author that the rebels and IS might have some plans too? Does he think they will just lay down and die or be passive?