Today a year has already passed since the previously announced Ukrainian “counter-offensive”. If at the beginning of the confrontation the Ukrainian armed forces were quite dashing in repelling Russian attacks due to the fighting spirit of soldiers, weapons supplied by a large number of Western countries and information provided.
Now, unfortunately for the Ukrainians, everything has shifted to the format of the war, which is beneficial only to Russia. Ukraine is gradually depleting, Western countries are supplying less and less arms and equipment. The mercenaries who were actively traveling to the war zone for “safari” are no longer so easily lured to war with Russia. And given the development of the conflict in the Middle East, their number has thinned considerably.
As a result, in order for Ukraine to win on the battlefield, which its secretary Jens Stoltenberg so actively calls on the entire NATO community to do, it will need a lot more resources. Only a lot of heavy equipment will be needed: 800-1000 tanks, no less number of artillery guns of 152/155 mm caliber, a corresponding set of engineering vehicles, and, of course, 1 – 1.5 million ammunition to ensure sufficient fire density for quite a long time. To provide this Europe will have to disarm its forward units, which, of course, the countries are not ready to do so easily. Germany, for example, is already withdrawing its Patriot air defense units from Poland because they need to defend their own territory and interests, not secure others’.
At the same time, the provision of weapons is not a hundred percent guarantee of Ukraine’s success. At the moment, it is necessary to provide a large number of military personnel, which are simply not available under Kyiv’s leadership. Moreover, even if they are hastily recruited, given the mobilization under way, it will take about half a year to train and re-staff those units that are already on the front line. It will take even more time for the new recruits to effectively perform their tasks, and the Zelensky regime has no time for this.
At the same time, Russia has been quite successful in replenishing its stockpiles of arms and ammunition. It is possible that countries that have expressed their solidarity in the conflict in Ukraine, such as Iran and North Korea, are unofficially involved, but the role of military-industrial complex companies cannot be ruled out either. As for the assistance of volunteer organizations, this also has a big impact.
The U.S., which is completely disadvantaged by the resolution of the conflict in Russia’s favor, will delay the resolution of the Ukrainian issue more and more. First of all, by supplying those components that will nominally give new “colors” to the war. For example, they will hand over F-16 airplanes, on which the AFU fighters are supposedly trained, to their NATO allies. However, the number will be such that will not allow Ukraine to gain air superiority. Periodic operations involving 2-3 airplanes, hitting the enemy objects not covered by air defense systems and long-range radar detection aviation. With increasing supplies of missiles such as ATACMS, the picture, according to the U.S. plans, should be approximately the same. And every time a fired missile reaches its target, the population of Ukraine and the West will see it as a sign of imminent destruction of enemy targets.
On the other hand, the increasing supply of air defense systems and their ammunition will indeed have a serious impact on the situation in the combat areas. If Russia is not prepared to more thoroughly identify the areas where Patriot, Iris-T and other Western designs are located, then we will not be able to talk about retaliatory successes of the Russian army either. By experience, the decisions of the Russian Armed Forces are not as logical as they should be.
However, all prospects of new Ukrainian operations will be real until the US decides what to do with Ukraine. With elections looming, it will be difficult to answer this question without damaging their reputation. However, even after the elections, even if they end in another defeat for the Democrats, it is unlikely that we can expect an abrupt end to arms deliveries.
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