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The US-Iranian standoff in the Persian Gulf has once again entered an acute phase. On April 22, US President Donald Trump announced that he had ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian gunboats that follow or harass US ships. In response, Commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Major General Hossein Salami declared on April 23 that Iran will provide a swift, “decisive” and “effective” response to US forces if they threaten Iranian “vessels or warships”.
One of the reasons behind the escalation is the consistent and strengthening anti-Iranian rhetoric of the White House as a part of Trump’s presidential campaign. Another driving force of the US actions is likely the sharpening global economic crisis and the turmoil on the energy market that has led to the dramatic collapse of oil prices. Indeed, a new conflict in the Persian Gulf could theoretically return the oil prices to $50-60 per barrel.
In the current situation, Iran is not interested in an escalation of the conflict with the United States. The escalation could, however, be instigated by the US military:
- A warship or a group of warships could enter Iranian territorial waters;
- A US military aircraft could violate Iranian airspace;
- US forces could block for Iran the civilian maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, or detain an Iranian oil tanker;
- Warships of the US Navy could imitate an attack on an Iranian submarine;
Iranian forces would have to respond to such a provocation. Thus, a military confrontation could start. After initiating a localized military incident, the White House would accuse Iran of aggressive actions against US forces and the US navy could carry out a demonstrative missile strike on a target or several targets inside Iran. Such an attack would prompt an Iranian response that would involve both its regular and irregular warfare capabilities.
The IRGC Navy doctrine reflects irregular warfare principles that include the use of surprise, deception, speed, flexibility and adaptability, decentralization and highly mobile and maneuverable units, all of which are used at sea. These include hit-and-run style surprise attacks or the amassing of large numbers of means and measures to overwhelm the enemies’ defenses. In this scenario the employed naval forces might be described as a mosquito-like swarm of small boats using their size and maneuverability to track and hunt down enemy warships.
The IRGCN’s mosquito-fleet concept enables rapid formation of tactical groups of small crafts to carry out a surprise strike at any given time from different directions in a particular area of the offshore zone. Such groups can deploy in attack formation immediately prior to reaching the area of the attack.
Crafts from the formation reach their assault line position either independently or in small groups. This is the way the Iranian Navy would employ the swarm concept. It is important to note the high motivation and ideological training of the mariners involved, who well understand the high level of threat to them personally in the event of the employment of this tactical scheme. IRGCN personnel are motivated and ready to accomplish any feat to defend their homeland. This factor (the high motivation of the personnel) makes a mosquito-fleet armed with missile, torpedo and anti-air weapons especially dangerous to naval forces of the US.
Th aircraft carriers and large warships of the US naval group would become the main priority target of the Iranian response. In the event that the Iranian attack succeeds, the US would have to carry out a massive strike on Iranian infrastructure objects or political and military command centers. Teheran would have either to accept their defeat in this limited confrontation or to respond with another attack on US forces in the region.
Current US military doctrine dictates the prior employment of mobile interoperable forces, unmanned and robotized systems, as well as massive strikes with high precision weapons in conjunction with the maximum usage of electronic warfare and information warfare. If the confrontation develops further the US would be forced to conduct a limited landing operation on key parts of the Iranian coast. The success of such a limited operation under the likely condition of a strong Iranian military response is improbable. Furthermore, the move would be hampered by the weak psychological condition of US service members caused by current developments inside the US.
The US military would have to either retreat or venture on to a large-scale military operation in the Persian Gulf region. If the number of forces involved does not allow Washington to deliver a devastating blow to Iran within 1-2 weeks, China or Russia could intervene in some form likely turning the military standoff into a frozen conflict.
It is likely that despite all difficulties, the US would be able to create an occupation zone inside Iran, likely in the coastal area near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian oil trade would be fully blocked and the US shale industry would be rescued. At the same time, Washington would have to deal with a permanent insurgency in the occupied area.
Another possible scenario is the defeat of the United States in this limited conflict because of significant losses in warships, aviation and service members of the involved interoperable forces. In this case, US influence in the region would be drastically undermined and the White House would start drawing up plans of revenge.
We should stop pretending this won’t happen. We should prepare for what’s coming now it’s a matter of time
USA dont fear Iran…they fear a posible new Ho Chi Min route in Caspian sea to supply Iran with constant modern weapons from Russia and China to undermine US armed forces like they did in Vietnam..and we have seen what happened there!
Those weapons that Iran develops end up in the hands of their proxies and then turned against us, which would also force the IDF to join the regional war alongside the U.S army and other coalition members. If it does happen, then it will be the mother of all wars the ME has ever seen, both in terms of the deadly weapons being used and the number of casualties for all sides. The trigger is Iran’s uranium enrichment and I believe they have already piled up enough of it for a bomb, so a military operation is a matter of time.
In the case of a full force conflict Israel would be extremely vulnerable, a massive attack on Gush Dan could behead the country. Or maybe US have decide to sacrifice you in their struggle with China, whose Iran is a key ally and one of the main supplier of oil.
If escalation were to happen and israel enter the war, in no time israel would be decapitated. It’s painstakenly obvious. There would be no reason to not strike israel and clear her from the arena with the first blow. It would be wise.
Let’s see Iran does it, it will be their most stupid decision for many more centuries to come.
I don’t think Iran will be the first to strike. That is not their history or their style. The thing that will destroy you is the enemy you do not see, very much like this tiny virus floating on the breeze has shaken the world. Something just as tiny and unexpected will shake israel to it’s foundations. Thereafter, naturally, the Palestinians will rise up and when you are at your weakest, you will drown within them. The Iranians will simply be standing by to watch you fall into a pit of your own invention.
You seem to have missed the point of the article completely. It was all about the US provoking an incident against Iran, not the other way round. You really need to think carefully before you reply and then hopefully you just might stop making such a complete ass of yourself. Of course, I wouldn’t bet money on you doing that.
I dont think he makes a complete ass about this. Maybee You should use a mirror and lok at Your own. Remember shaving…
You’re the biggest ass on this forum now that jake321 has been removed. Pity the imbecile who upvoted your dumb comments, must be a low IQ jew.
When was Jake321 removed and why, I found him humorous!
2 weeks ago, I think. All his posts just went *poof*. My theory is that he got doxxed somewhere and hasbara central decided to wipe is alias.
That, or the site admins detected his spam and ran a site wide delete …
Thank you, sad. If everyone posts the same it’s akin to shouting down a well and listening to the cho.
That’s your Zionist opinion and it doesn’t impress me.
Hard to see that has anything to do with zionisme.
You need to look in the mirror and say that without blushing.
As it will be Israel’s most stupid decision since creation. These guys are itching to kill nearly all Jews if Israel push the U.S to war with Iran. It won’t be another Iraq or Afghanistan, Lebanon or Syria, where Israel will just stand with folded arms and watch as the U.S kills and dies on the battlefield.
You think or believe that Iran cannot retaliate with nukes if attacked. I have been researching this claim for long. I am now 90% convinced they WILL nuke Israel if Israel nuked Iran even before this year ends.
You may be right, but we have our anti missile defense systems to cope with it.
You surely can be funny. You think Iran will just fire off their nuclear missiles as soon as Israel drops a nuke on Iran?
they will first send a salvo of conventional missiles as decoys. When you exhaust your anti-missiles fire on these conventional missiles, the real one will then get through. How’d you like to cope with that?
Oh that should keep you safe! LOL.
Another joke.
The normal thing here is number one is not to know the enemy and build up a shield, so its kept and repeated, so most ME fanatics make all the normal ones of Yours to believe or forced to believe.
When USA dont attack You, You name them as weak and cowards amd even motherfuckers.
And when You do, Ypu blame them too.
The best explanation for most of Your culture seemes to be You already lie so much for and about each other, so there is no truth but only fatansy wishes.
Number one might be You talk about Arabs as one. I see millions fight each other even before MUhammed was born. Most of the time You only has been calm, when You were kept as grass for golfcourts.
And You still fight about numbers and who was worst even long time before WW1 – And yesterday here again about million of dead by Osmans(You all apart from Iranians were United Osmann laundry keepers).
So where is the future. I see not even a try for tomorrow, which involve Yourself treating each other much much better, where historical facts aree totally gone even its very well and free decriebed.
Its laway USA doing everything. BUT IN FACT ITS YOU DOING NOTHING. You even exist in no change.
After Iran gave danish teachers hired by the legal Bagdad Goverment ballistics from about and wounded them, I am changed. We even has trained the shiit militias for better shooting practice.
So asking for help against cortona and food is a no way from here. If we have too much pork, because GB and Germany might be in crisis, we wiill parashute some to You.
And USA. They are barking mad too. Trump has not improved that impression.
But thats not the same as I like Your kind better. I like none of You, but I certainly any time prefare how we are in Western ecoonomics and most jews incl. them in Israel included – for You.
Now go and remove the reaosns for war there. I can only see the main things well. One could be pressure by making nukes and hostage taking in the most cheep way.
Another good change which has continued from Sunnis and Shiits split up and made at least 3 Choranes is Iran in Syria, Lebanon and like that. But that of course is their version of Sunni traditions.
Iran should mind its own business. Now they cant even feed themselves even 50% unimplyed men as farmers or at least hobbyframers in an agrar system, which was very good 300 years ago. Another good reason for not so much food and Irnaians probatly becomes smaller and smaller too is, You make much more children then jobs.
Iran has choosen themselves. USA has it too.
1st, I’m American. 2nd, use Google translate, do not ever, ever again, attempt English! 3rd, revised history much? I think you’re part of a cult. A racist xenophobic pubescent cult. 4th, simply put, you’re a moron. You make absolute 0 sense.
I think “moron” is rating Jens too highly. The correct medical classification used to be “imbecile”.
Bacille fits You.
product of incestual rape describes your condition
if the Gush Dan area comes under a massive attack of thousands of rockets, then it’s doomsday for Iran.
You’ve got that ass backwards. Iran is better defended by geography and decades of hardening. Israel is a sitting duck, to use the vernacular term.
Shows you know nothing about us, it’s good.
I know a lot more than you think. I’ve seen a dozen Crusader states fall in the last 1000 years. Israel is just another Crusader state. Like the others it will disappear shortly in the sands of time. This is then 10th and final crusade. The days of the Crusaders are over.
He will emerge. That will be the Mahdi. Far greater than Salahuddeen Al Ayyubi. this will be their final defeat. Before Salahuddeen emerged, Muslims appeared to be in a hopeless state just as they are now.
As a non-Muslim my admiration must end only with Salahuddeen and perhaps Hassan-i-Sabbah, who is my personal idol :-)
A learned Muslim knows your race inside out. we know about how you troubled and even killed the prophets. How Allah cursed you after you repeatedly broke your covenant with Him. you even attempted to kill Christ despite his life full of miracles. You have been expelled from more than 40 countries. Hitler tried and nearly succeeded to eliminate your race for reasons we Muslims understand, but disapprove. Islam had already explained all these things happening today. Have you heard of the Malhama? it is this coming war. The hadiths explains it in plain language to be a war between Muslims on one side and the Jews and Christians on the other. Though a great number of Christians will help the Muslims because they will know the evil and danger Jews represent to the World. these will most likely be Orthodox Christians.
The hadiths explains that so many will die in the Middle East those alive would wish they were dead too. This war will be close when Yathrib (Jerusalem) begins to prosper. (i.e after the creation of Israel).
The hadiths specifically notes that the chain of events would start by the killing of an innocent man. I tend to think Soleimani fits this description because he was on a peace mission when Trump murdered him. In Islam, the blood of an enemy soldier who is on a peace mission is forbidden to shed. That makes him innocent even if he is an enemy soldier.
The wars in Syria were clearly explained 1400 years ago. It says the people of Syria will be scattered due to war. When they return home after scattering (refugees and IDPs), Allah will gradually return unity back to the hearts of Muslims.
This war is just a matter of time, probably less than two decades away.
I actually enjoyed reading your comment about how Islam sees the future, we also have a prophecy but a bit different – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_eschatology#Origins_and_development
So you’re putting your faith in a guy who raped a child and whose religious leaders believe camel piss will cure what ails you. Got it. ?
Your Torah is full of child rape, Joo.
You joos run a global paedophilia network, documejted and proven. Not to mention a global network in organ theft.
The Joo accuses others of what he is guilty of. Go suck on baby foreskins as your filthy Rabbis do.
Ok, Archie bunker – prove it. Where is there child rape in the Torah. Also, please provide evidence for the old sad lie about organ theft (your sponsors, the Chinese are doing that with the uhigyars. Listen little man, you are nothing but all y’all. You’re a little insignificant nothing. And if you’re anything more than y’all, I’m in NYC. Let me know when you’re ready to step up
We all know enough, you never stop telling us.
I see none of that illusion.
Much like Fata Morgana camels in my backyard here up nprth in Denmark. But we have them in zoos.
I always thought that Danes were quite sensible, but you’ve shattered my illusions about that.
Israel is a postage stamp and will vanish without trace if a full scale war breaks out with Iran. Oh I nearly forgot to mention Hezbollah, do you remember the thrashing it gave Israel in 2006?
I remember what WE did to them, check some videos from 2006 you might like it.
Which explains why they’ve deterred you since then. Netanyahu keeps fanning the flames with Iran, while he ignores Hezbollah as they grows stronger. I am sure from time to time he uneasily looks out of the corners of his eyes at Hezbollah as it gathers strength, knowing Israel will have to fight them again some day.
Hezbollah is a stubborn foe, I agree they pose a threat on Israeli civilians and infrastructures with their rockets. It is much wiser to deal with them in the next 1-2 years than let them become even stronger.
I fear you have left it too late to dismantle Hezbollah without paying a prohibitive price.
14 years too late.
You could say the same about Israel, but I won’t.
I would you guess actually did nothing during the rout by Hezbollah, still you keep whistling in the dark, if helps you.
It’ll be doomsday for both Iran and Israel. What do you gain from provoking a war you can’t win?
Israel can not let them develop nukes and use them on us whenever they want to, that is unacceptable for us.
So what you are saying is, rather than live with a nuclear armed Iran, Israel would rather not live at all. That would be insanity of the highest degree. Why not just Contain Iran as the Pakistanis, Indians, Americans, Chinese, Russians contain each other? Yeah, you’ll start spewing this nonsense that Iran promised to wipe Israel off the map as soon as they have nukes. I want you not to forget that they already have the capability to destroy Israel with conventional weapons if they choose to. But they haven’t done it.
Objective, Iran itself is not the problem. Our problem is with the mullahs agenda towards us, they will never stop trying to destroy us even if we had a peace deal with the Palestinians they will find another excuse. it’s in their core belief to wipe us out, and we can not take that chance. I hope you understand it from our POV.
You think they’ll be that crazy as to nuke Israel? I strongly disagree. Most experts on Iran say its leadership is rational. What you should know is that they already have the means to bomb Israel back to the stone age with conventional missiles. They don’t need nukes to do this. Why haven’t they done it? If I am not mistaken, Israel has been hitting Iranian targets in Syria without a single retaliation from Iran. What Israel really fears is a challenge to its military dominance of the region. And also a balance and check on its actions.
But you’ve got nukes, so only fair for Iran to have a few.
They just can’t help it. Shame about Iran though.
Typical ME stupidisme comment. Israel has been extremely vulnarable since they started. Israel alos is not important in those matters.
You even write about sacrifices. What about own losses. Are they sacrifices or total stupidity. I vote for number 2 in 70 to 30.
I used to think that Danes were great and then you came along.
USA will sacrifice Israel by forcing it to sign 7 years peace treaty.Collapse of usa economy and EU and oil betrayal collapse of Saudi Arabia. Is because of unending unplanned Israel sabotage war.Another economic sabotage is Erdogan. Even his unending war and invasion of Syria has cause severe constraints on Russia economy.Erdogan war interference in Cyprus,Egypt,Qatar,Iraq and Greece have both USANATO and EU on knees.Expelling Erdogan is nothing but expelling Israel will cause Israel Iran unity.and this is the biggest fear of USA NATO.
oNlyh enemies to deserve to be hit hard themselves deserves someone like You.
So who will win? Polar bears or ants?
Progress would be You proposing something else. But OH NO. Thats not allowed in Your little world.
Not after your buddies assassinated Soleimani
If Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Iranians will pay in kind, and return the favor, and bomb Demora Nuclear Research facilities. Eye for an eye. Israel had brought it upon itself. Shalom.
Its the ususal stuff. In the old days americans joked about USSR. ‘One was all of their science fictions started witt : “Onece upon a time, there will come…” :)
You have no change unless You gets economical strong and support devellopment. You do exact the opposite and enemies of Yours love You for it.
The fact that the Arabs and Persians have not yet decided to (discreetly) leak a bio weapon into Israel’s water and air supply should be enough to make Israel get down on it’s collective knees and thank them for their humanity …
And what do you think would be our response for a Biological or Chemical attack against Israeli civilians? you can guess.
Who has more to lose when it comes down to the edge?
Them.
Not really. You have fewer people. Your chances of anihilation are higher. There’s enough of them to survive a total war. Your kind will be gone though.
Okay.
Its as if You not even know, what You are writing.
That’s like the pot calling the kettle black. You, the one who can’t even use Google Translate properly. Besides, since your grasp of English is generally rubbish, it would seem that au contraire, it is you who don’t know what I am writing :-)
I never use google translate for english.
This is not about google translatel but knowledge for military capasity as well as politics about things.
I know for 100% my normal fast writing and speaking english is understood in the whole german english world and in the borders of that.
Thats where I live.
I am aware of Your many limitations in this language because of Your own languiage, culture and maybee religion as well.
Thats why You dont understand so many things happening in tne west. You even define Our democrasy in the same way – What we dont know dont exist.
For me and us its like Islam only has 3 imporetant things instead of 5.
Another thing is, if You want to level up anything, You at least has to be able to copy the good parts of Ours.
Here You have to reform Your minds and not use the childrens perfect for lawyers english only. The normal dane is no high ranked lawyer, doctor or ingenior wearing a suit driving 3 expensive cars.
You are told that again and again but reduce Your pronlems to, that we have them. We inovate how we live, You are not able to because You cant clean Your own houses. We and for that matter jews cannot see why You has to blame us for those many limitations, which is Your own made by Yourself – or for that matter from above by Muhammed.
We didnt invent Islam. Important part of that old stuff shluld be updated to 2020. Even the standard Sharia is more then 100 years ago.
There you go again, making assumptions about my religion and ethnicity. Clearly you haven’t even researched the origin of my name :-)
Never mind Google Translate, you should learn to use google!
Well you should know all about that.
Well you should know all about that.
Ypu are right, if You write like that. Your supporters for that all are spendables in millions and deserve to die. And they will.
But You dont care in Your narrow minded world, because You have learned the few left has gained honor and respect by that stupidisme.
Ypu should learn from them. They are doing very well for their seize because they go to school, educate, use their sjills, work hard and even are payd pr hours for, what they are worth.
They also live in a productive system, where You are kept in systems, which was implemented, because Muhammed didnt like some Jews in Mecca or Meina 1400 years ago.
You probatly use the Choran and Your added culture as well only taking the bad parts of it and even keep the women more stupid then Yourself, so the can be raised for sale.
Please go play in the children’s section, Jens. The adults are talking here.
Boring.
None of the lines in your post make any logical or factual sense. Somehow you seemed to have assumed I’m a Muslim and based you logic on that. Since I’m not a Muslim, your entire argument falls apart into garbage. Please understand: You can’t make reasonable arguments by making a bunch of random assumptions and building a tower of nonsense on it.
Like when you were thrashed by Hezbollah in 2006.
Can you kill every Muslim on Earth with your 400 nukes. Maybe you can start with American Muslims. Or those in Saudi Arabia, Africa, India, or the 100 million in China.
Your enmity is with Muslims, not just Iran. You hate us so much it is making you sick.
No, I have Arab Muslim friends just like Christian ones, we studied at the university together in Haifa city. I don’t hate Muslims, I hate extreme Islamic ideology like Hamas or Iran. Ramadan Kareem.
The same Arabs that your people murdered and plundered for years, and are still doing so. How dare you say you have friends among them when you clearly glorify Israel on this forum? Do you really think the Palestinians deserve what is happening to them? You claim the land was given to you by God over 1000 years ago. Even if I am to believe you, how does that justify uprooting a population that has settled there when you left? How is it the fault of the Palestinian who was born 100 years ago on that land? He didn’t steal it from you. He was born and brought up there. He knows no other home. Do you really think Israel is doing the right thing? imagine that the position of Israel and Palestine were interchanged. How will you feel to get such treatment.
Not all Jews are evil, but those who support the Israeli regime clearly are. So please do not say that you have Arab Muslim friends. Imagine those friends reading what you post on this forum and knowing it was you. Do you think they’ll continue looking upon you as a friend? certainly not.
I have never said they don’t need to live here with us! never! I said I want peace, and I would give them most of the West Bank if it was up to me, it’s our interest for them to have a state. But then you have the Hamas and PIJ that don’t compromise for less than destroying us, how can we have peace with them? we can’t. That is why you see me angry here, I want them to have a state and they still keep shotting rockets, that is why I hate them.
Do your research well. It is Israel who doesn’t want a two-state solution to the Palestinian crisis. It is also Israel who has been extending the borders originally set by the U.N.
Alot of mistakes have been done by the corrupted PM Bibi, you should already know I don’t support him or his actions regarding the Palestinian issue. On the other hand, their leadership is also afraid to sign a peace deal with us, so I don’t see any solution till we both change leaderships.
You don’t have any friends, apart from Jens the sad Danish Zionist.
Fairytales again. 1001 or more.
idf is worse than the US.. all barf and no bite..
You need to thank our coward PM, I can’t explain it to an outsider. One day we will get rid of him by force, the people are already mad at him for the economic situation and his actions, so it might get closer.
Maybe you should start with Hezbollah who thrashed Israel in 2006.
They must have been watching the Chechens smash the Russians
True.
you are right this will be the deadliest war in the region’s history. However, I am certain God will intervene, particularly for the innocents.
No, they dont. AreYou mad.
There hardly will be any USA troops nearbye.
Are you saying that the USA will remove all it’s troops and bases from the Middle East before it attacks Iran?
They can’t do that by the way: withdrawing troops will mean they only have long range attacks available – which will have limited effect. Meanwhile the lack of local forces will leave resistance groups free to destabilise the puppet governments the US is propping up all over the region. Eventually US troops will have to move back in to make any difference and at that point they’ll be moving in to absolute chaos.
“There hardly will be any USA troops nearbye.”
Gosh! And it doesn’t occur to you that this means that in the event of the USA starting a shooting war then Iran can overrun pretty much all of its regional rivals, and there isn’t a single GI to stand in their way?
Americans! Not the deepest of thinkers, no matter how often the Law of Unintended Consequences turned around and bites them on their arse….
Already too late for that. Russia is already the biggest arms supplier to Iran besides China and there is nothing the USA can do to interdict those weapons. America has no access to block routes through central asia, and certainly no access to the Caspian sea.
Well dig deep and dont come back.
True.reasoning and nuclear excuses wont stop this war it is coming.We must be prepare by repenting.
If You were important to me, You would do me a big favour detonating Yourself. We all gone a die sooner or later.
Hunger or poverty we dont comit suicide it is against the will of God.
US will be seeking to end this in a few weeks but Iran will be in it for the long haul. This will see the live use of a nuclear bomb. This will also be simultaneous to an E or SE, even S asian conflict. The worst part of it all, US only has a diminishing window to do this, otherwise it will be forced to escalate plans to leave the region.
I dont see Iran has many friends.
Iran has more friends than you do however…
A very short list. Until they threw ballistics at our teacher and tech soldiers called in for help for Bagdad I was “dont care”.
Now I do care. hy should I be neutral in those matters.
I’m sorry, you’re completely incoherent.
Hasn’t invaded a nation since the 18th century – that’s a decent record to compete with Switzerland!
America doesn’t have any friends. Just vassals.
Not many of the vassal’s forces will want to die for the US. US deaths and capital losses will be horrendous and all just to get Trump re-elected.
Things are not like that at all. If I see the alternatives USA is great.
It would be nice with some links for, where uts better… I never see that. You create hardly nothing Yourself and only hope the worst for others, so the can collapse or decline to Your kind of low life.
I believe Kissinger said “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests”, but you’re close enough.
Indeed. My observation is that the USA, in it’s relationships with it’s so called ‘allies’ actually insists on a lord-vassal relationship. If the ‘allies’ refuse to obey, it historically sanctions, deposes the leaders, bombs, embargoes or carries out other forceful actions against it’s ‘allies’. This is a lord-vassal relationship, not an allegiance …
We all are the western economics and fx EU is just as big as USA incl. GB.
We also has big affiliates. All are foing better then most of tbe rest. If we are vassals, we are very happy ones in xocial, policial and relgios matters.
Put in alternatives ? Well, I can only see China might do.
Some links might be nice.
USA as well as many other countries are not like or dislike.
So you’re saying you’re all happy vassals. Got it. Live happily enslaved then.
I say for fx for GDP we were number 14 pr capita with 55.000 dollars a year. Í say we are number one i less corruption. I say we export more to USA then they do to us.
I say You dont know what Vassals are. They normally pay. But we gets paid by selling HQ products to them.
its the same for us being slaves. Being independent both ways isnt slavery. Most products in the west is outsourced to the best.
So a danish company fx is ordered to make 250 missil ramps for F16s or we make almost half of the elektronic in all german cars or Novo Nordisk is the biggest insulin producer in the world selling for several billions in USA. https://www.novonordisk.com/media/photo-library-02/Production.html
Danes also invented the use of large scale windturbines, which has spread to the rest of the world – Trump or not.
Some of the largest transporters by sea and land/trains also i Danish.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maersk_Line
So we work WITH USA and many others in the world economics. We dont work for.
Now go and play with Your danish Lego. Thats danish too Barbie girl.
You also could visit the Sidney opera house. Some slave vasal from here made the printings for that too.
https://lepinworld.com/shop/lepin-creator-expert/lepin-17003-sydney-opera-house/
Damned if I’m going read all that gibberish. Get back to me when you learn to speak clear, coherent English.
Thank you for acknowledging the limitations of your intelligence, dummy
Have you considered what it might be like not to need any ‘alternatives’ at all? How about not needing a superpower to attach yourselves parasite-like to. How about simply existing as a collection of independent states looking out for the collective good, and organising against larger powers like China and the USA, even Russia *if necessary*?
The USA has allowed itself to become a vassal state of Israel
You’re talking bullshit as usual.
That’s because you’re blind. They have many friends The problem is that the USA punishes everyone who deals with them. Sometimes humanity wins over American Tyranny though, so here are their friends:
Switzerland
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51314171
Russia:
https://armscontrol.org/act/2001-03/iran-nuclear-briefs/russian-arms-technology-transfers-iranpolicy-challenges-united
The EU:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/20200323-eu-to-give-%25E2%2582%25AC20-million-to-aid-sanctions-hit-iran-in-coronavirus-fight
Turkey:
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200331-irans-ambassador-thanks-turkey-for-coronavirus-aid/
China:
https://youtu.be/KAZ35qIm_JI
South Korea:
https://www.iranwatch.org/news-brief/south-korea-resume-exports-humanitarian-aid-iran
South Africa
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2152HF
And the list goes on …
In fact, if it was not for the USA iran would only have a few enemies.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/with-iran-ravaged-by-coronavirus-us-is-pressured-to-ease-sanctions
You dont get it all.
Its family maybee cousin. Have You never pushed or been pushed in Your family. I have. Not all has been nice. Even I havnt been nice all the time.
It’s not the same family. It’s the same colonial criminal cabal that thrives off thieving the resources and blood of native people.
You’re not wealthy because of so called hard work and enlightened values, you’re wealthy because of centuries of exploitive criminal activity.
Your so called wealth was stolen over 900 years from Arab, Black, Native American, Asian people. Most of Europe is still living off the plundered riches of colonial times. The USA was built on the backs of black slaves shipped like cattle to die in the white man’s fields. The easter islanders were made extinct working in the white man’s mines. You are nothing but thieves and your so called ‘enlightened’ ‘utopia’ is a facade covering hundred of years of evil. It is like a pretty face on a rotting corpse.
I didnt do it. My famlily comes from poor farmers hands nd feudals and was feudals in the same way as Yours.
Itso a very sick illusion slaves created USA. Most gard workung people wasnr them at all but people, which had nowhere else to go.
Look of the muslims in Europe of today. Compare with them instead. Those prefare to live among christians and infidiels instead of You.
You should wonder why people like You makes so many kept in stupidity as lazybums on a low living standard and even its our fault, Ypu are like that. I see it here every day.
I also allow me to remind You that Ottomans was an Empire in the period, You mention.
I also can see there are about 190 countries in the world now. So from WW1 most of the countries are released form the collapsed or declined Emipres. Some – true – are in different kinds of neocolonialisme, but nothing from my well educated world very women are equal or alost equal with us men keep You and Yourself down.
You culture and religion keep Ypou down and it has no flexibility, that matters.
The most stupid joke of Yours start with”IT IS WRITEEN”. Well hardly any of You can read any of that. Most women noty even get the right they have in the Big book, he Haddits and the more then 100 years old Sharia.
Its old mens rules based on looking back when they were Young,keep it and keep there men but especially all women even more stupid and backstapped then themselves. Girls even are raised for sale and given away to someone they not even know and sometimes not even with their knowledge. They are not even asked.
Women also WORK here and by that contribute a lot to Our GDP. You – if You are muslim in a muslim country – has up to 50% unimployd by men and much more aming women. How comes. Is there npthing to do. Iran says they has no food or not enough food.
So why dont they make the 50% into farmers. Well they cant, because Ypu insist in being in old days in systems, which sometimes are 900 years old wasting water to the sky, making salty fields, grow 10 times on 40 hektars instead of 40 times at 10 hektars and only with symboilic fertilizer.
BUt You dont see how and copy the know how fx from Marocco, Akgeria, Portugal, Spain, Southern France and Italy – Even many muslims work hard there to groe a lot of food incl. proteins.
In Iran You even has an Aytollah being expert in back agriculture should remain. Rhat hasnt anything to do with sanctions but all about no learning. …………………………..
And I know it well from here. Most muslim emmigrants has to learn to read the Holy Choran in Danish, because we have translated it for them in an modern and a traditionel version.
They are used to work in ineffective family businees of the worst kindnot able to prodyuce as much as a single plastic bottle in the whole ME(apart from the Jews of course).
We pay based on shcoll, education, skills, hard worj and pay pr hour. You pay stupid men being nice to old men cars and clever women nice to old men flowrs in their behind or some mobile phone.
The help seemes to be boyes are made by Allah and women by clay:( Ours aree not. Our women are made by the ribs of ADAM, so Adam is only a whole person again being united with the ribs, which is a wife.
No wonder women always are in front where You cross Your many minefields.
NEXT there is a revolution in all those homes, because – ITS WRITEEN – what the Choran says about RIGHTS and also DUTIES for helping their chidren to a life, where they live and “SUNNI” bark as among the rest of the dogs, pigs, sheep whatever.
You are so lucky we dont accept priests being as evil as some of Yours. If so, You would be gone in 50 seconds.
Your kind deserve how it is. Blaming us for inventing the stupidmaking parts of Islam and culture is impresiing and only confirm, what I read from You.
Oil is same thing. If it wasnt for oil could be used to a lot of things, You were still even more poor. You get most of it doing not a thing about it Yourself apart from Your own kind of Feudals strip You down to less then nothing by drowning corruption and no investments.
Even a farmer in ME can see a goat dont give milk if they dont feed it.
Your version of whatt has hapopens has correct corners, but as west we have denied no devellopement of Your world as well as it is WHAT WE DO with the oil, which is an important tool for many things.
DO is the difference. Do things systematic by the scientific way is the magic stick.Motivate by competison and an income tax, so the state and the socalled top of Yours are less corrupt does it. Educate Yourself lazy bums. Vomen are just as clever of You. You are not even allowed to know more then one well in their minds and brightness.
We have a female “King”. We have a Female Premiere minister. The biggest town of Ours being a police district has a Female Chief as well. Females here also fly our new Sikorskys for rescue operations.
So make some jobs and make all the ones work instead of all that nonsense. Parts might be true or was true. Most of is not at all. You lie for Yourself and not even has a language for, what we do.
You describe Parlamentarisme as not parle. I can only compare with we as non muslims descriebes Islam by only having 3 important things in stead of 5. One might instead be: Never go to Mecca. Maybe its not even there.
You neglect to include that these europeans, purportedly of the same ‘family’ enslaved and colonised their own kind:
– The English oppressed the Irish for centuries. To the point where they were called ‘The Blacks of Europe’ – World War 2 was essentially one huge robbery cross massacre of Europeans against Europeans over land and wealth. – Not to mention Europe was one big cluster*** of wars and conflicts for hundreds of years before that.
Stupid, the Easter Islanders totally disappeared before “white men” showed up. That’s why it was a mystery for so long. Arabs invaded North Africa & South Asia, so i’d be careful talking about stolen wealth. Hell, all of Pakistan is stolen from India. Your knowledge of history is really quite pathetic. How are you not embarrassed to post this stuff publicly (other than you hide your real name, so nobody really knows just who Archie Dumbfck Bunker is.
America cannot beat AlQueda, ISIS, Taliban … and it wants to take on Iran, and probably China and Russia? GOOD LUCK A-holes.
There is saying, an enemy of my enemy is my friend!And frankly, the USA doesn’t have that much friends either, but it has developed a score of enemies, hidden or open, with it’s bullying!
There will be no use of a nuclear bomb on Iran. Not under any circumstances. The reason for that should be pretty clear.
God never lies through visions and dreams Israel and USANATO will used nuclear weapons and rapture will occur.But both Israel and USANATO will be defeated.Then USANATO will force Israel to sign peace treaty with Iran and Arab countries.Due to the oil betrayal war Saudis will make unity agreements with all Arab and Muslims. Turkey will be defeated by Syria and Erdogan arrested by own citizens and hang in the street.Israel will destroy Damascus before completely defeated.
A grand prophecy. Let it be true.
two important facts that have eluded today’s Christians: a) that the Judahite Hebrews who became Christians were the true Israel of God, whom God spared the Great Tribulation during the Apocalypse of AD 70 – an event a lot of Christians today think is in the future; b) that those who followed the Pharisees were not the true Israel of God, and therefore were not spared during said catastrophe that saw the genocide and the end of the Hebrew race. “For they are not all Israel which are of Israel…” Romans 9:6 “The Lord is not slow about His promise, as some count slowness, but is patient toward you, not wishing for any to perish but for all to come to repentance.” 2 Peter 3:9 “Behold, your house is being left to you desolate!” Matthew 23:38 In effect, those Judahite Hebrews who followed the Pharisees were the seed of the Devil, a truth the Apostle John was trying to convey in Revelation by calling them “Babylon.”
The problem, is the belief system of Christian Zionists. They believe that what Israel wants is what God wants. Therefore, it is perfectly acceptable to give the green light to whatever it is Israel wants and then conceal this from the American people. Anything, including lies, theft, even murder, is justified as long as Israel wants it. Then why did JESUS suffer on the cross!?
With more than 50 millions members, Christians United for Israel is a major politica force in the U.S.. Its Chairman, pastor John Haggee, declared: “The United States must join Israel in a pre-emptive military strike against Iran to fulfill God’s plan for both Israel and the West, […] a biblically prophesied end-time confrontation with Iran, which will lead to the Rapture, Tribulation, and Second Coming of Christ”. Have you ever LOOKED at HAGEE — at best he is a glutton ….
“rapture” is actually a vicarious form of suicide. “rapture” is an extremely SELF-ABSORBED way of saying “I am SO perfect” and anyone I dislike will be LEFT BEHIND to suffer(feel bad because I am gone) but I will revel in heaven. HUMBLE? These idiots will go to hell just for their arrogance. One of the major problems America faces is a large population of religious fundamentalists who have become as fanatical in their own way as any Middle Eastern Ayatollah. At present, they are caught up in their own version of the myth of the end of the world, and hope that by working to bring it about, they’ll get to sit at the right hand of their diety and to hell with everyone else
God is with you.Romans 8 verse 35 to 39.
Are you insane? Nobody wins if the nukes start to fly, we all just die. Rapture fanatics need their heads examined.
Only God will end human life no nukes.
I hope Your bicycle for fun is a 3 wheeler :) Remember sealt belt and airbag.
The “rapture” Prophets for PROFIT “christian.zionists” are ANTI-Christ DEATH CULTISTS. God/Jesus put you in this LIFE to learn “soul lessons”, to increase your consciousness to the point of Redemption. Hagee and his Ilk REJECT the LIFE God gave you, and dangle a “shortcut” in front of people, just as SATAN dangled Temptation in front of Jesus. Do not follow the ANTI-Christ lies of FALSE prophets. There will be ONE Judgement Day, and NO ONE is going to “bypass” it by being “raptured”, that is a lie from Satan and his television IMPS. Their “shortcut” of cheating God’s lessons does NOT lead to Heaven, any more than cheating on school work teaches you the subject. Hagee, Robertson, the whole group, do NOT believe in anything except the MONEY they collect for leading their Flocks astray. From the Hagee church on down to Pat Robertson, it’s all ANTI-Christ. I don’t believe their savior would’ve approved of fat bank accounts & massive multi million dollar buildings. Christian institutions today represent the most perverse translation of Christianity. “FEEL GOOD” churches are Houses of Satan. http://www.jeff-goodall.com/?p=8955
Repent man rapture will occur it is close.1 Thessalonians 4 verse16-17
If the US had a different political system and demographics resembling the 1960s or earlier, it could win in a total war situation. The reason why they wouldn’t win against Iran, like in Vietnam, is the lack of political will and public opposition to these wars. They could also have won had they invaded in the 1990s, or the 2000s after they invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.
War between the global Ziocorporate terrorists and Iran looks like Tel Aviv in ruins, the Samson option won’t save the Rothschild neocolony in Palestine from destruction, neither will the US even if, as in Kissinger’s 1973 Nickel Grass Pentagon operation to save ISISrael, the US military tries and come to the rescue of the Zioterrorist invaders. Iran’s still playing softball, Tehran has been developing capabilities to influence not only Iraq to the west but Afghanistan to the east, and the Zioterrorists have a huge profiteering scheme to lose in both countries.
Unfortunately, Zioterrorists are every bit as extremist as Wahhabis, and the current state of affairs in the region cannot go on much longer. Terrorists in Tel Aviv, Washington, Riyadh and London no longer stand to profiteer a lot from occupying the Middle East as it is and will try to tip the balance of power in their favor. NATO Turks are the same.
The Zios don’t seem to understand that the only reason the Evangelical Christians of the US have enabled them to occupy Palestine is that Revelations says that the Israelites hold the Holy Land when Jesus returns. When they have served their purpose they will either convert or be slaughtered with the rest of the heathens. Thank “God” the Chinese are atheists…
That was the original reason. These days it’s because the American and European leadership has been entrapped by a combination of bribery and blackmail (See Epstein’s international Mossad-backed paedophilia ring).
I’m sure that plays a part but paedophilia scandals are just another day on the job for Christians, check out Cardinal Pell, just yesterday I was arguing with some twat who thinks he’s been treated unfairly. I think the blackmail has more impact on the Zionists though, they are able to ignore the Christians goals because they think they’re getting one over on the goys. Pompeo is as evangelical as anyone from any previous US administration, Christians have been doing the puppet master thing a lot longer and more successfully than the Yids, I wouldn’t rule them out so quickly.
People telling that are in menthal hospitals here even we try to keep people out from there as well as jails:)
Menthol hospitals, cool as a mountain stream.
Scenario two is kinda already obvious defeat of US, if not they wouldn’t waste words and would attack Iran just like some other countries in no time.
No, its not. USA is many 1000 kilomaters away. You are wrong too but seemes to prefare Iran look like Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
If Iran inflicted mass damage on the US presence in the M.E (destroy all US bases with missile strikes), combined with destruction of US allies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. If they timed this with the economic collapse of US markets, and waited for the US to get involved in another major conflict (e.g with China) and chose the moment when the US was least capable of responding. If they waited for relations between the US and Russia to be at their worst, they could definitely defeat the US. The collapse of US control in the middle east would lead to a retreat back to US shores. The loss of this influence would lead to defeat on the global stage because once America loses the middle east, it is dead in the water.
Bet on Iran
“It is likely that despite all difficulties, the US would be able to create an occupation zone inside Iran, likely in the coastal area near the Strait of Hormuz.” Highly improbable considering Iran’s ballistic capabilities – all US forces and the zionazis entity would be under constant bombardment – the entire ME would turn into a multi-front for the US. The iof is completely inept and occupied Palestine would fall to unrelenting missile strikes by Hezbollah and the SAA – likely culminating in a ground invasion of the Golan and Galilee. There simply are not enough forces – even if NATO joined in to hold back a counter- attack by the resistance.
An attack by the US against Iran would result in gloves off for the resistance including direct involvement by the Russia and China.
yes, it would never be just US vs iran and no one else, you can bet all of iran’s allies will join in but the US’ vassals will give every excuse to not get involved hahahaha
Iran has no allies. Only China dare to print some rials for them.
Assads are a Russian vasal or Oblast for recycling their ancient weapons and now test are for one of the 8 Armatas, which to the price must be made of gold and diamonds.
Russia is a key military supplier to Iran.They are also part of Iran’s nuclear program. Russia cannot allow Iran to fall because:
a) If Iran falls Russia will be infiltrated by terrorist movements funded by the USA, Turkey and Saudi Arabia via Ingushetia, Dagestan, Chechniya. Iran is Russia’s defensive barrier to the Caucasus.
b) If Iranian oil comes under American control the Russian oil market will be wiped out. The Americans will flood Iranian oil onto the market wiping out Russian market share. Bye bye Rosneft. Bye bye Russia.
So it should be clear that not only will Russia assist Iran, but they will fight to the DEATH for Iran.
Of course, I don’t expect you to understand this, it’s above your pay grade but I’ll leave it out there for those on this forum with the intellectual capacity to understand it :-)
Jens is a lowly farmhand, living in faraway Nordjylland. You have to make allowances for him, as there aren’t many rabid Zionists living in the Danish outback. He is clearly very lonely.
“It is likely that despite all difficulties, the US would be able to create an occupation zone inside Iran, likely in the coastal area near the Strait of Hormuz.”
Using what, exactly?
There doesn’t not appear to be a single American on planet earth who is aware that the Iranians have a standing army of 350,000 ground forces. That is men ALREADY in uniform and ready to fight at a moment’s notice. The IRGC can add at least another 100,000-strong ground force. Again, these are men already in uniform and ready to fight.
Give Iran a few days and the numbers swell to nearly a million men.
If the USA lands a Marine force of, oh, let’s be generous, 30,000 men on “the coastal area near the Strait of Hormuz” that force would last less than a week.
The USA has a big advantage in the air *if* their planes can get into the air. Its Navy is vastly more powerful.
But let’s none of this nonsense about the USA being able to land ground forces anywhere on Iranian soil. There is simply nowhere – and I mean nowhere – in the Middle East where CentCom has anything like the number of ground soldiers to be able to stand their ground against the Iranians.
N.o.w.h.e.r.e.
The US navy, like all navies, is very vulnerable to modern anti-ship missiles. Iran has many thousands of these weapons, as well as a fleet of modern submarines, some especially designed for use in coastal waters.
Why is everyone fixating on how many F-15 and F-35 fighters the USAF has, and the number of ships the US Navy has in the region?
Like all wars, and especially all wars in the Middle East, this will be a ground war irrespective of what the US “wants”.
And if Donald Trump orders his Navy to open fire *today* he will learn on “day two” the very inconvenient fact that the Iranian Army outnumbers CentCom by nearly 10-1 and by “day seven” start to sweat as he sees that swell out past 20-1.
HE HASN’T BOOSTED CENTCOM’S GROUND FORCES.
Bush Snr spent six months doing that before Gulf War One. Bush Jnr spent six months doing that before Gulf War Two. Trump has done Jack Squat in the last six months, and doesn’t even realize that He Doesn’t Have Enough Grunts On The Ground.
This is going to be a slaughter, and it will be the Iranians doing the slaughtering.
@Southfront: a very shallow analysis. You mention none of the following: 1stly, any attack by the USA will unlikely be limited. Regardless, Iran will assume the attack to be existential and will respond accordingly. Any attack by the US will be complimented by Israel either attacking Iran as well and Hezbollah simulatneously. Iran has immense strategic depth regardless of being surrounded (except in the south) by US bases. It’s strategic cities are behind rugged mountains separated by miles of desert. Iran’s US allies and hence enemies (Israel, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi, Bahrain etc) have little to no strategic depth by comparison. Iran has cultivated highly effective proxies (hashd, hezbollah, houthis) all of whom will be deployed in any war of aggression against her, In the event of an attack against Iran, she will not hesitate to attack US bases in the persian gulf and obliterate those countries – it will take a week of continuous missile strikes to obliterate any small gulf state, and using fuel-air explosive warheads (conventional ie), just a few days to destroy Haifa and a few more to wipe out Tel Aviv. Hezb and hashd will invade the Galilee and attack Golan. Israel will attack hamas in gaza preventing infiltration. US fleet will be wiped out with invincible Yakhonts which iran and hezbollah have several systems of (which can be adapted to carry nukes at supersonic speeds). In every US computerised wargame scenario in the past, Iran has come out on top. The US and Israel cannot destroy iran’s strategic capability or cities even with nukes without massive, effective Iranian retaliation destroys Israeli cities and opens the gates of Hell for Israel, whose armed forces are woefully demoralised and ill prepared to counter the world’s best non-conventional force – Hezbollah. This time, unlike in 2006, nasrallah will not only deploy a limited 2000-2500 man force, it is likely to double that or more. Israel has again recently ordered GBU – bunker busters in various strengths. Regardless, this will be israel’s last war. Either it will obliterate Hezbollah, or it (Israel) will cease to exist. Remember, the combined experience and ability of the Hashd, Hebollah and Irgc Quds force makes them the the world’s most capable and experienced fighting force in the ME arena. – all this pre-supposes that Iran has no nukes, which it is suspected of buying 250 of from Ukraine over 10 years ago. In this case, there will be total destruction for Israel and the Gulf states in the offing. One also has to bear in mind that Pakistan with its nuclear will itself feel existentially threatened and fearing itself to be next, will make it’s arsenal available to Iran for use against Israel. The outcome of this engagement has apocalyptic connotations and destruction will be massive and widespread.
You neglected to mention the 300 nuclear bombs that Hezbollah and Iran have stored in Demora Nuclear Research Reactor in the Negev. Both Hezbollah and Iran have missiles that can reach the Negev. That might settle the Arab/Israeli conflict with a peace of a necropolis.
I’d like to see them try, if they dare ofcourse :)
Attack Iran, and you will see. After the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, Iran sent a barrage of missiles to a US Military base in Iraq. When a US drone spy plane flew over Iran, they shot it down. What do you think that Iran would do if it attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities? It did no hesitate to shoot down a $172,000,000 drone spy plane.
That is what the US said when they sent a 172,000,000 dollar spy drone. Iran called the dare.
I have seen them. They all has white helmets:)
I can recommend You as General or more for my worst enemies, if You wish:)
When I was a child i used matchboxes as tanks . I even took up a mirror to double them.
This is good as a single-faceted analysis of one potential outcome. However the fact is that an attack on Iran involves so many interacting variables and conflicting interests that the likelyhood of a clear victory by the incumbent superpower, even against an inferior military opponent is far from clear. Under the current circumstances the combination of a global pandemic, crashing markets, loss of faith in the status of the USA as the so called ‘Leader of the Free world’, the fact that Israel stands as a “hostage” to Iran in the event the US decided to ‘obliterate’ Iran makes even a limited war against Iran so fraught with danger that even a superpower would be hard pressed to initiate it – nobody knows how or where it would end.
Further, not only does the US have to fear defeat at the hands of Iran, in that tiny theater in the Gulf, but the US and it’s allies also have to fear the consequences of Victory. The outcomes of destroying the Iranian state could lead to fragmentation of Iran into hundreds of insurgent movements, infiltrating and destabilising the entire middle east. Blowback would be immediate and it would be significant. Think Hezbollah x 100 and on steroids. Consider where Iran’s nuclear and military resources would go once the state disintegrates … Consider that Iran also acts as a regulating hand on Hezbollah and Hamas. What would happen once the regulating hand of Khamenei is no longer there and his place is taken by a fanatic bent on revenge (rightfully)?
I can tell you right now, there is no victory against Iran with Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan in mind. There is only damage or setting it back five years in infrastracture and a generation lost. Now what is uncertain is how much damage and expenses the US will incur on the process. If damage and disabling Iran’s nuclear reactors is the goal and not regime change, then there may be partial attainment of objectives. Depends if they can obliterate mountains then turn around and succesfully blame Iran for the radiation. Israel may or may not be openly involved but it will not be their decision but Iran’s. No one will be willing to gamble on good faith, so the odds are on the side of secret but active involvement until their cities are hit.
Realistic reflexions.Too many abnormals here.
I agree with the sentiment that a war against Iran will only set it back 5 – 10 years. People should remember that Iran already knows what it’s like to lose a million lives in a war against the entire West. Teheran has been bombed before. Iranians have been gassed with chemicals before. They do know what it’s like to starve, have missiles falling on their holy sites, have their food supplies blocked, their oil platforms bombed. They survived 8 years of hell and rose out of it. Yet a few days ago they launched a military satellite into space.
Nice reflexions. I am not worried for a “Persian” split up. But true some neighbors might see possibilities.
Fx I think Baluchistan should be united and away from Pakistan(too) .
The Balochs are better with Pakistan than on their own. If you think Baloch tribesmen are a problem now, you’ll wish they were back under Pakistani control if they ever break away. Just like the Pashtuns, the world is better off with the Pashtun under Pakistani guardianship than not. The FATA tribes are like pandora’s box – you don’t want to open that nightmare … No, let the Baloch remain where they are.
Much to me that “Balochs” should decide themselves and also make a smaller Pakistan.
Maybee all Pashtuns should have their own country divide in Autonome states. The rest might have less problems by that.
Dumbest idea I ever heard of.
Thats the old days and hardly war but a way to stay in sta quo.
Real war by USA anytime will knock out electricity, water, bridges, roads and trains and make Iran into a corpse with no arms and legs.
Some might think the start should be to make Qaum into a lake.
USA has ballistics – too…
Forget the rest. If possible USA will not spend a single soldier against Iran.
Soft targets in the west are as far as the eye can see. Do you think these 3 nations, Russia Iran and China don’t know how to take out these targets and create chaos within western infrastructure. ..you are not thinking,boy.
comic book analyses—US soldiers can’t hold territory–never have, never will!….they would be obliterated by Iran—submarines, fast boats, missiles etc would destroy US carriers—oil from Kuwait, Iraq could not pass through the Hormuz straight—it would be mined and vessels would be targeted from land and sea…Of course US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, etc r already targeted by Iranian missiles…such a war will never be tried by the USA—they would become 4th world instead of a typical 3rd world cultural desert as they r today and there would be no “coalition of the willing”. civilized societies will not participate in such barbarisms…perhaps the Hizbollah attacks Israel, they will nuke themselves…the US ruling class is not so stupid—such a war would plunge the world economy into a depression and their stock market would crash.
And that is just the beginning. Now, imagine if Russia and China, in their paranoia, should imagine that war on Iran is just part of a broader strategy to attack Russia through the Caucasus and China via Central Asia? There are American plans to send salafists into Russia via Iran and Xinjiang via Central Asia – that is the USA’s long term strategy for destabilising the other two rising powers. They certainly won’t stand idly by, they’ll get involved and things are guaranteed not to go as planned ..
Not noted in this analysis is that the US president is actually quite gun-shy.
Under the current president, the US is looking for a way out of the intractable situation in Afghanistan, the presence in Syria has been significantly reduced and US forces seem to be restricted to a handful of highly fortified bases in Iraq. Add to this the bizarre volley of cruise missiles targeting empty buildings and fields several years ago in Syria. Then there is the more recent restraint shown when Iran shot down the drone and the lack of any real military response to Iran’s missile attack on the US base. Therefore, the pattern under the current US president has been a decrease and drawing down of military involvement rather than any increase. And besides rhetoric and bluster, there is little to indicate any reversal of this trend.
In short, the US president does not like dead and maimed soldiers. But that is exactly what it would take for even a limited “occupation zone” in Iran. And thus a full-scale invasion is even more unlikely as the ‘all-volunteer’ military would quickly become exhausted and stretched to the breaking point, perhaps in as little as a few months. Logistically it is therefore improbable. As such a full-scale invasion would require a return to conscription and result in overall lower quality and training of soldiers and thus even greater casualties, an option that is just not politically viable in the US.
It is also highly unlikely that given how the US has alienated its former allies that any effective international “coalition” could be formed under those political circumstances.
The usual tactics of cruise missile, air attacks and special forces raids would therefore be more likely as the US has no appetite for the casualties necessary to actually occupy Iran to any significant level. Thus massive conventional bunker-buster bombs and perhaps even nuclear weapons might be used. But given the geography of Iran and how long the Iranians have had to plan for such an attack and distribute their resources, the effectiveness of these tactics are nowhere near guaranteed to bring about “regime change”.
The US is internationally alienated, trillions in debt, morally bankrupt, contending with a pandemic, is profoundly divided along domestic political lines and has a president that doesn’t really like violence. The US therefore will not be attacking Iran to any significant degree anytime soon.
If the US strategy would be to use aerial bombing then even that would lead to failure. Considering the USA carpet bombed both Vietnam and Korea back to the metaphorical ‘stone ages’ and still managed to be defeated, I don’t think even carpet bombing Iran would achieve much. The USA has no real options, it’s either “No War” or “World War” – Anything in between will result in a defeat against Iran.
You’re right, why should any more U.S troops die like in Afghanistan? the U.S has enough nukes to wipe out Iran.
See my earlier argument about why nukes are not an option.
You wrote: “Now, the USA cannot go nuclear on Teheran for one simple reason: Fallout and Misdirection. Fallout will impact the entire middle east, even american allies. Misdirection will result in Russia and China not being able to distinguish a nuclear attack on Iran from an attack on them: How would they know that those nuclear weapons heading to Iran are not in fact a veiled decapitation strike against Russia or China? They wouldn’t take the chance. They would simply see a nuclear attack heading towards central asia and respond – the nuclear attack window would be between 10 mins and 1 hour … too much can happen in that window for the US to risk…”
1. There are tactical nukes that can have a limited impact, against Tehran only. 2. Russia and China won’t attack the U.S unless they are being attacked, and you can be sure that the U.S will inform them before making that move to prevent misunderstandings.
1. The use of nukes of any size, tactical or not will result in a nuclear escalation by a) Iran, who will respond to a limited nuclear attack as if they have been attacked by a full scale nuclear attack. b) Russia or China if either are unsure that the US is lying and instead planning a nuclear decapitation strike on Russia or China?
USA: “Hi Russia, chill ok, we’re only going to use a nuclear pinprick on Iran, you may see a couple of nukes passing by …” Russia: “Hmmm ….”
2. You contradict yourself: You propose a full scale nuclear attack to ‘wipe out Iran’ and then immediately negate your argument by proposing the use of tactical (limited) nukes. Tactical nukes will have the effect of large scale bombing – i.e basically leaving Iran’s missile forces intact. Which is it, you can’t have both!
3. Can they take the US at their word? Not being friends of USA, how sure that they will not a) Impel the US to cease and desist or face consequences b) Inform Iran they will be under imminent nuclear attack and prepare in a Hurry? If I were Iran, getting a quick warning from either would result in me rotating my entire missile force to point at Israel. It won’t matter that Israel would counter attack, think about it as mini M.A.D.
May I add that Iran’s neighbors, Pakistan and India, are also nuclear states. So there are additional triggers that could be pulled. In any case <> is nothing more than a persona, it’s not real. Normal people do not ignore factual evidence and continue to go on spewing the same nonsense over and over, so it’s useless arguing against he/she.
More as an intellectual exercise to myself than to convince others ;-)
I won’t stand in your way. It’s always refreshing to see comments like yours versus the claptrap that tends to accumulate on this site.
Likewise. Grazie.
Di niente.
Great explanation. You should write an article on this.
Thanks :-) It’s almost identical to the analysis you put further up. Oh for a new career …
You don’t need nukes to take out tiny Israel. Bang bang you are gone.
Is that so? well, they can try :)
How big Is Israel? How many are they? Iran’s general once said, there are soooooo many missiles in Iran we are faced with the problem of space. Hezbollah sits right at the border. Israel has got some real enemies this time.
The U.S has enough nukes to wide out Iran at the expense of Israel. Not sure you’ll back that option. But if you Israelis hate Iran that much then goodluck
It’s actually them hating us, I don’t hate the regular Iranian citizen just the mullahs.
He wasn’t that gun shy when he ordered the murder of Qasem Soleimani.
Not unless Trump blunders into a war. His assassination of Soleimani shows that he is dangerously reckless
Obviously th US is able to bomb Iran and destroy a lot but can they prevent Iran to erase Israel ?
You put up the protection of Israel on a level, where its the Iran/Arb fantasy version.
Iran might be ablo to hit Israel hard and damage it – But destroy – thats not possible at all. If things comes to that level Israel will use their own nukes and not even ask USA.
Nukes…lmfao. Nukes don’t end the war, if the sht hole entity can even set them off, nuke carrying subs being they’re best chance, it will surely be only the nail in israels coffin. They have contingency plans moron. If you think Iran backs down after nukes you’re seriously mistaken. It will totally be the end of israel.
yep and about time that the jewish criminals in palestine are kicked all the way to hell.
Still waiting for you to man up about it
That Israel might use its nuclear weapons is a clear possibility, but they wil have to use it against Iran, Irak, Syria and Lebanon. They will have to oblitarate the whole Middle-East and the outcome could be “The Jewish catastrophe”.
Israel only really comprises 3 important cities (the rest can be ignored).
– All that an enemy with a large missile force would need to do is destroy Tel Aviv, Haifa and the next most important industrial city (Ashdod maybe?).
– Just destroying those 3 key points would lead to mass panic among the population, leading either to a flooding of Israeli citizens to Ben Gurion airport or the borders of the surrounding countries (which would be ironic to say the least …).
Destroying key infrastructure like one or two major power or water supplies would cripple Israel. It really is quite fragile.
But the biggest factor is what happens when the Palestinians in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza decide to kick off an intifada while the attack is ongoing? What happens if they are joined by Hezbollah?
This is called “The Perfect Storm”
sure they can bomb but a country of 1.7 miilion squarekm and 84 million people is no easy target and given the capability of iranian airdefences a road to disaster. add to that the ability of iran to close the hormuz strait and thus kill the saudi life line and the emirates’, the disintegrating states of A better think hard and fast about any dare devil operation that can’t be won. sure the jews in palestine are vulnerable and deserve no mercy so if they are kicked all the way to hell, nothing to be upset about, they’ve earned it.
The closing of the Hormuz strait is an argument for the US to start the war as it could save the US shale oïl and gas industry which are nearly bankrupted
But in this year, given covid19, how would it matter if the price of oil went to 200 dollars but the demand has crashed? The US shale industry was not profitable before covid19 when oil was at a reasonable price, even if oil shot back past 50 dollars, how would it save them? Also, now that oil has gone negative, China and others have taken the opportunity to stock national reserves to the brim, so if the strait was shut, the price wouldn’t matter because countries would simply take advantage of this windfall and low demand to wait out the crisis. Closing Horuz would not save US shale. Also, US shale is light, sweet crude that is only suitable for certain uses, a supply choke in the Persian Gulf may actually have no effect on US shale …
if what you say is true, then Iran has lost one of it’s biggest sources of strategic leverage
nah, the disintegrating states of A can’t afford to lose saudi or the emirates or kuwait and the closure of the HS would mean just that, i.e. bankrupt saudi and emirates and kuwait. so what good is 300bucks crude if there is nothing to sell. and the saudis export via the red sea is a pipedream and could never replace the ras tanura stream.
It would seem so. However so has it’s enemies. The playing fields are still “equalised”.
True. Everyone has lost leverage at this point. But the leverage Iran still has are the triple levers of holding the Saudi, Israel and UAE client regimes hostage in order to influence the US.
God is not a liar USA and Israel will both be defeated by Iran.The Russians will if their see that Iran has full control over USA and Israel later support Iran politically and militarily as a opportunist and only opportunity.
The basic tactical issue here is, how cost-effective given modern technology are classic big, heavily armed ships compared to swarms of very light, cheap vessels with missiles? I’ve long thought that aircraft carriers and big honking armoured ships are no longer very effective. They just can’t stop good missiles and torpedoes, so a cruiser could end up trading one-for-one with a tiny PT-boat just big enough to carry a ship-killer and some electronics. The big ships can still kill, but all their size and armour can’t stop them from being killed in return. Bring stealthy little submersibles into the mix and it could be even worse. In this case of course there’s also shore-based missiles because you can’t be out of range in the Persian Gulf.
But there’s been so little naval fighting in recent years that this is all theory; it will be interesting, in a horrible sort of way, to see what happens if it gets tested in real life. If the missiles work in practice, the US could rather suddenly have a carrier group amputated, and wouldn’t that be embarrassing? And Iran would lose a bunch of little boats, which would be sad for the families of the guys on the little boats, but would represent a comparative pinprick, even given how much smaller Iran’s economy is.
This article is complete horse shit.
ONE of the nice things about Trump’s being President is that what he does brings out the Jews’ control over the USA into sharp relief. If Trump does not do as his Israeli Masters order the EPSTEIN/MOSSAD TAPES get released. … Trump was good buddies with Epstein but Trump DINDU NUFFIN …. yeah sure. All those hookers Trump had to PAY OFF and cheating on every wife and he DINDU-NUFFIN … It is the ADELSON Administration . …. Bought and PAID FOR. Remember how “rich” Trump was “self funded” and therefore could not be influenced by contributions?”! Well $259 million bought him. Those funds came from Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, Paul Singer and Bernard Marcus, donors who have made no secret of their desire for the United States to destroy the Islamic Republic. Adelson, who alongside his wife Miriam are the biggest donors to Trump and the GOP, contributed $205 million to Republicans in the past two cycles and reportedly sent $35 million Trump’s presidential bid. Sheldon Adelson BRIBED Trump and the Republicans …. This does not include the “favorable and unusual” so-called loans granted Kushner and ?Trump? who is notorious for being in financial difficulty and is desperately hiding his taxes. Trump has lots of energy for defending his tax returns but very little for defending Our borders. Trump’s lawyers will appeal and fight this tooth and nail for his Taxes. But when some P.O.S. “judge” treasonously rules against defending this Nation’s borders from Invaders Trump just shruggs and submits. Makes empty threats about where to put the Invaders, and goes back to putting ISRAEL FIRST. Trump has diverted American resources to granting Sheldon Adelson’s every wish for a FOREIGN nation. Trump has NOT fulfilled his DUTY and Promises to the American People as he has focused on Putting Israel FIRST.
yeah the way the jews in palestine and the entrenched/embedded jews in the disunited states of A has bought and paid the lawmakers on the hill and the government officials in washington dc, including the white house, they are nothing but traitors and should enjoy some 30 to 40 years in a federal penitentiary or the needle in the more severe cases – like senior advisor jared kushner and wife,botox barbie (I understand she goes under that name).
Or just flat out Exterminate Jihadi Iran as a Cunt-ry & while we’re at it why not also Exterminate Ching Ching Chicom Yellow Skin Slant Eyed Demon Commie Cunt Chinkland. 2 Fucks for the price of 1.
Very optimistic:(
Jake321, is that you?
it would be an unmitigated catastrophe for the disintegrating states of A, nothing they can do, short of a full scale nuclear war, will provide even the slightest advantage for the americans and sure as a klucking bell, the jews, the criminally corrupt jews in palestine, will be obliterated to dust, which would be a day to behold.
and moreover, the disintegrating states of A would have to do the fighting on their own since not one nato-country would team up with the morons from washington dc, not even england.
omg. In 1991 the US Military squared off against Saddam Hussein’s army in Kuwait. The Americans were outnumbered 3 – 1. The land campaign is the only military campaign in history measured in hours instead of days, weeks, months or years. Indeed some of the guys I knew who went told me they didn’t even take time to “nap”. Yet in the entire lead up to that mess we heard exactly the same kind of claptrap about how mighty the Iraqi’s were and how stupid/weak/unprepared/inept the US was. Iraq drank that Kool-aid and died like dogs.
Why do people keep writing this stuff? Here is what the war in The Persian Gulf will really look like: Target Practice.
Iran’s ridiculous little tiny navy can be easily swept from the Persian Gulf in a matter of hours. The only difficulty, and that is a minor difficulty, will be shore based Anti Ship Missiles. Iran’s problem is this: Each battery of missiles they have will only get off one shot, or salvo. Firing gives their position away then “counter battery fire” will happen so fast that the battery crews will have to run from those batteries the instant they fire the first shot. If those soldiers wait more than 30 seconds they will get caught by the counter battery fire and vaporized. After such a counter battery strike you will have to be lucky to find their teeth. There won’t be any “bodies” per se.
sure, but as is obvious you are unaware of the Iranians’ capabilities and there is nothing like a walk in the park for the under-educated morons from the fly over states – not even the asses in pentagon believe that although the bought and paid corrupt morons in the white house, in the hands of the jews, might just think that is the case, given son in law’s treasonous connections with netanyahu and the palestine jews. but anyway, let them try and we will see another vietnam or afghanistan or syria unfold before our eyes.
Under educated from fly over states he says. And where are you from Adolf? What’s your educational background (queue litany of Ivy League qualifications, millions is the bank, etc and now loser spends his time advocating the genocide of Jews ???)
Iran is not even remotely like Iraq. Not even close. If you imagine an invasion of Iran will be even remotely as easy as Iraq you’ve been seriously misled.
If the U.S ever decides to attack Iran, watch for the following signs: (1) The withdrawal of almost all U.S ground troops within Iranian missile range (2) Significant deployment of warplanes to Diego Garcia (3) Significant deployment of Naval Assets. (4) Building of large and hardened aircraft shelters and bunkers (5) Significant deployment of Submarines. (6) Rapid preparations in Israel to defend both civilian and military targets. (7) Increase number of European forces in the Middle East.
The U.S is not going to win a war with Iran without using nukes. And the U.S is not going to use nukes on Iran. here is why: (1) Nuking Iran will guarantee the destruction of Israel. There are enough CONVENTIONAL missiles in Iran to destroy Israel ten times over. (2) U.S forces suffer from a lack of range. the range of Iran’s shore-based anti-ship missiles outstrip any carrier-based aircraft in the American fleet. (3) The Saudi, Emirati, Jordanian, and Bahrain governments will collapse. The price of oil will certainly skyrocket, and it is the western economies, especially Europe, that will suffer most. (4) there will be massive global political backlash against the U.S, and Trump will instantly loss domestic support for the war. (5) Iran is very very likely to retaliate against the U.S homeland with chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
Based on my research, I very certain that Iran is nuclear-armed, or at least they can produce nukes in a moment’s notice. Don’t you believe the politicians. Iran just surprised the world with a satellite (aka ICBM) launch. the characteristics of the rocket which launched the satellite is strikingly similar to an ICBM. Rouhani also promised that Iran will surprise the world on the Nuclear front.
Khamenei once warned that Iran will attack its enemies AT THE SAME LEVEL as they attack Iran. google it. Does anyone think that include nukes? I for one think so.
Not sure they’ve miniaturised a nuclear warhead yet BUT they have access to an even worse weapon than a conventional nuclear warhead: a cobalt diffusion bomb.
I.e a “Dirty Bomb”. They don’t need an actual nuclear detonation, they just need a diffusion technology to blast a large amount of highly radioactive cobalt dust over a large area.
Cool thing about a cobalt diffusion bomb: no need to do underground or above ground nuclear tests! Development can be done quietly … Which is probably what Iran is already doing.
I never heard of such a weapon. Can you explain more about the Cobalt diffusion bomb?
I think they can miniaturize a nuclear warhead. their nuclear cooperation with North Korea is so deep their is no secret about nukes the North Korean will hide from them. I read a lot about their nuclear cooperation. In fact, many experts think North Korea has probably tested a nuke on behalf of Iran.
remember that the U.S didn’t have to test nukes before dropping them on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Israel also has never tested a nuke on Israeli soil, but we all know they have it. It’ll be a mistake to think Iran does not have nukes simply because they haven’t tested one. If they don’t have nukes or cannot have one in short order, then they must be crazy to confront America in the way they are doing.
It is highly probable that Iran has nukes or can test one at short notice.
It’s a species of salted bomb:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt_bomb#Fallout_from_cobalt_bombs_vs._other_nuclear_weapons
Wikipedia tends to underplay the dangers.
Personally I’d be more terrified of such a weapon that leaves no hope of environment recovering in a thousand years than a ‘clean’ weapon like a neutron bomb.
I’m not sure you fully appreciate the implications of these two points: (1) The withdrawal of almost all U.S ground troops within Iranian missile range and (4) Building of large and hardened aircraft shelters and bunkers
It’s nice’n’all of the USA to go to all that trouble but, really, the Iranians aren’t going to have much use for those hardened aircraft shelters when they overrun those airfields, so what’s the point.
After all, who is going to stop them?
Certainly not all those US ground troops who are… are… err, where’d they all go?
The USA’s belief that this is going to be an air war reminds me of the dude who brought a knife to a gun-fight.
A nice knife, of course, and way, way better than everyone else’s.
But, dude, you left your six-shooter at home, and I can’t help but notice that the angry looking guy with the evil mustache started grinning the moment you started talking tough. Can’t imagine why.
Like you rightly said, this will be an air war with salvos of missiles. Nearly every military formation above ground will be destroyed in the first few days of conflict. Leaving American forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E, Qatar, Bahrain, etc. will be suicide – unless they are all hidden in secret locations or hardened underground shelters like what they did in Iraq recently. The problem is, Iran is watching every move the U.S makes and has infiltrated all of its neighboring countries – so the U.S can hardly execute any secret construction or major deployment without Iran knowing it.
Iran’s missile capability is terrifying. I don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out. Not only are they armed to the teeth with a variety of missiles, they have also trained and armed a region-wide army. The basij in Iran alone can provide the government with 11 million trained fighters. There are over a hundred thousand fighters in Syria. There are thousands in Iraq, and Afghanistan. Over 150 thousand in Lebanon. This will be the worst bloodbath that region has ever faced.
What makes the U.S scared of this war (And they are really scared of starting it, including Trump, otherwise, they would have done it long ago) is that the battlefield is no longer permissive like before. For example, a shower of missiles on American military bases with 2000 KM of Iran will render those bases nonoperational. That means most planes will be grounded. Also, the Aircraft carries cannot come anywhere withing 1500 KM or Iranian shores. Which means every carrier-based fighter plane has been out-ranged.
Saudi Arabia will be subjected to constant missile fire on its forces. The weakening of Saudi armed forces will result in the collapse of the regime as Yemenis and Iraqi fighters storm the Saudi Kingdom from the borders. The Taliban will overrun Kabul, Assad and Russian forces will retake parts of Syria occupied by the U.S. The emirates will also come under fire, as will the Bahrain and Jordanian kingdoms. Every U.S target in these countries will be attacked.
Israel will try to sit it out, but Iran and Hezbollah won’t allow that. Israeli airports will be the first targets for Iran and Hezbollah as they will try to take out any air advantage for Israel early in the war. It’ll be an intense exchange of Missiles between Israel and its adversaries.
Israel will be itching to use nukes because it’ll lose the missile war with Iran. If that happens, then you can be sure that every single Missile in Iran and the ones with its allied militias will head for Israel. There will be little left of Israel when the dust settles, even if Iran lay is ruins.
It is highly highly highly unlikely that America or Israel will provoke such a war.
“but, really, the Iranians aren’t going to have much use for those hardened aircraft shelters when they overrun those airfields, so what’s the point”
The point is, America will try to degrade Iran from the air and sea. In their calculations, when Iran is significantly weakened, ground forces will move in. Look at what they did in Iraq. All U.S soldiers were hiding in underground bunkers when the missiles came in. It was kind of funny to me: American soldiers hiding in the same holes they pulled Saddam Hussein out from. Had Iraqi Shiite militias attempted to overrun those bases during the missile fire, American soldiers in those bunkers would have fought them. Defending the base was so important that some soldiers were left to patrol it despite the heightened danger.
I am betting the U.S has built numerous secret underground bunkers across the Middle East. It is a fact they are hardening airbases in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, probably in Qatar and other countries too.
The advantage of those bunkers is that they’ll give the U.S some possibility of defending such bases from ground enemy forces even during an intense missile war. But to some extent, I believe underground bunkers don’t offer that much advantage when dealing with an adversary like Iran. If they carpet-bomb everything above ground like they did in Iraq, what benefit would the bases offer to U.S military operations.
Unless Trump is crazy, he’ll find a way to make peace with Iran.
[I am betting the U.S has built numerous secret underground bunkers across the Middle East.]……..why would you bet on this? does the us expeditionary footprint really provide for hardened base facilities? and why do you think Iranian intelligence is not aware of these facilities?
It would be almost impossible to build secret underground bunkers of any significance without the local Arab population being aware of it. Iran has a network of spies infiltrating every part of the middle east. This is how they were able to target the two American bases and the Saudi oil facilities with such precision earlier.
Okay, if you think the U.S will fight Iran without first pulling its forces within range of enemy fire, how does the U.S protect the soldiers on the ground? Patriot missile batteries? THAAD? certainly not. An underground bunker is the most ideal way to do that.
These facilities can be hidden. They don’t have to be so big. Iran has manged to conceal a wide network of underground military site from its population. I think that shouldn’t be too difficult for the U.S to do.
I go along with most of that, but of course it won’t be a Turkey shoot like Iraq. Iran has, as we know, a very formidable military and it will inflict massive damage on the US military and its allies in the region, whatever the outcome of the war itself.
“The point is, America will try to degrade Iran from the air and sea. In their calculations, when Iran is significantly weakened, ground forces will move in.”
So your point is that while the USAF is striking Iran from the air that the Iranian ground forces – nearly 500,000 strong, and easily able to mobilize up to 1 million troops – will simply sit in their barracks playing cards and peeling potatoes.
And they’ll keep doing that until the moment that the USA decides that “Iran is significantly weakened”, at which point US ground forces will march in to deliver the killing blow..
Is that the plan?
Coz’ it’s not a very good one because it relies on the Iranian ground forces deciding to “sit this one out” even though in the initial stages of a shooting war they will have an overwhelming (as least 10-1, probably much more) manpower advantage over CentCom ground forces.
Explain to me why, exactly, they should be so accommodating other than “because US plans rely on them doing that”.
I stand by my original post: if the USA starts an “air-war” on Iran then the prudent course of action for the Iranians is to mobilize all of their ground forces and turn this into a “ground-war”, and the sooner the better.
If they did that they will be able to roll up all of CentCom’s forces like a cheap Persian Rug, and do it before Trump has time to shout “Why didn’t anyone tell me they could do that!!!!!”.
There is something you misunderstand about the point I made. I rely on analysis by authors, studying U.S and Iranian weapons systems and war strategies, Observing U.S and Iranian on-the-ground actions, and Critical thinking. Let me attempt a clearer explanation of my point.
Iran’s missile power is what seriously altered America’s military thinking. The U.S is in a bad position militarily in the Middle East whichever way you look at things. There are no good options for the U.S – only bad and worse options.
Deploying ground troops in the open anywhere within 2000 KM of Iranian border will result in a massacre of U.S forces. That will be suicidal. The Iranians are armed with precision strike drones (up to 1500 KM and soon 2000 KM range). They have precision Missiles up to 2000 KM.
The only times it becomes strategically logical to deploy U.S forces near Iraq are: (1) If the U.S managed to get some means of defense from Iranian missiles. They have tried Patriot batteries, Laser guns, THAAD, but none of this can tackle even up to 5% of the Challenge. (2) If the U.S can keep those forces out of harms way by building hardened shelters – most likely underground. this is a better option (3) By dispersing troops in small units across a wide area to complicate targeting by Iran. But this strategy has a disadvantage. The small units cannot use heavy war machines like tanks and escape detection by Iranian drones. Iran has intelligence assets on the ground all over the Middle East.
Because of the above bad options, the U.S is likely to choose the safest option of keeping ground troops out of range, or rely on a combination of the options above. However, because of Iran’s intelligence resilience, I believe the U.S will be taking too much risk deploying soldiers and war assets within range of Iran.
The U.S Airforce is in a better position. They have planes that can fight from distances beyond reach or Iran (the B series bombers). These bombers will operate mainly from Diego Garcia. The shorter-range bombers like the F22 and F35 will operate from hardened and fortified airbases. the U.S just revived the airbase in Saudi Arabia and has fortified the aircraft shelter. If aircrafts will fight from these fortified bases, they need to have troops underground or in shelters to defend against ground enemy forces that will try to overrun the base if missiles fail to disrupt air force operations. Planes on this bases will be capable of short landing and take-off. That makes them less dependent on runways, which missiles can easily destroy.
For your information, Iran’s war equipment are kept underground in fortified and secret tunnel, or network of tunnels. The U.S with their air bombardment will be able to destroy much of the civilian infrastructure and those few military assets above ground. Iran is literally a nation that can quickly go underground in the event of war.
Iran’s priority will be to take out America’s air advantage asap. They will do this raining missiles on U.S air bases to damage the runways beyond immediate repair.
America on the other hand will try to fortify its airbases as much as possible. America’s greatest advantage in any conventional war is the air force. the U.S relies so much on air force to win battles. this has worked for them fine, until nations began fielding precision cruise and ballistic missiles that can negate such advantage by rendering airbases unusable.
If America’s hardened airplane shelters cannot withstand Iran’s ballistic and cruise missiles, it is game over.
The navy can do little as aircraft carries can’t risk getting up to 1500 KM from Iranian coasts. Refueling tankers are also very vulnerable because they are not stealthy. Using fighter plane escort for refueling tankers will be too daunting as carriers can only take a limited number of planes.
I must object to point (1) though. The moment the U.S withdraws it’s ground troops it will leave it’s local proxies in the region defenseless against Iranian and local proxies and allies who would have been waiting for just the right day. It would be like the dam walls bursting. While the US might be preparing for long range attacks on Iran, the entire middle east will be disintegrating. Regaining the foothold they took a century to create will be impossible in this era, given that their local allegiances will have been disrupted, if not completely wiped out.
Good observation! This is why the U.S will not start a war with Iran until they figure out a way to outrange Iran and still deliver a decisive blow without losing much.
Of course, the U.S will withdraw their forces when war with Iran becomes certain. Or at least, they’ll withdraw most of them. They will not give a second thought to their Arab vassals. It is not the first time America will betray an ally to save its neck. Remember Hosni Mubarak? Saddam Hussein? The U.S didn’t even have to suffer any casualty when it betrayed Mubarak. Can you remember Trump boasting that the Saudi monarchy will be no more should America withdraw support for two weeks?
Watch America’s actions in Iraq. See how they are redeploying forces to keep them out of harms way. this is not for fear of Iran, but a militia!
Maybe Trump promising during his campaign to withdraw forces from the Middle East could be a signal that the U.S has decided to fight this war. He is withdrawing ground troops and increasing the number of fighter planes, bombs, and naval assets. He is in such a big hurry to withdraw U.S forces from Afghanistan despite the Taliban violating parts of the agreement. Fighting continues in Afghanistan as American troops withdraw. He is taking big risks (Soleimani assassination) that a president really averse to war will not take.
I think you greatly missread Trump. He is the most evil U.S president I have read about except for Harry Truman. Trump will deceive many with his talk of peace. He is actually angling for war regardless of the doomsday consequences for Israel, Iran, the U.S, and the region. These lunatics will push for war until humanity is destroyed.
Don’t listen to what they say. watch their actions
The US has dozens of sitting duck bases, within easy reach of Iranian missiles. Evacuating these bases cannot possibly go unnoticed by Iran, which would then go on to hair trigger alert. It might launch a massive initial strike if it thought a US attack was imminent. The US clearly has very little room for manoeuvre.
The baby butchering demoncraps win the 2020 election and Biden or whoever is pulling his strings crawls back to Iran and gets on his knees and tells Iran he is sorry they had to endure Trump for the last four years. Then he has the 82nd Airborne drop a couple pallets of cash on Iranian soil for Iran to spend on whatever they want. Iran is even more emboldened by the pathetic weakness of America and Americans and is even more encouraged to attack U.S interests anywhere.
Are you aware that the “pallets of cash” was actually money the Americans owed to Iran? These were Iranian funds the Americans had stolen from the Iranian state years earlier.
I would not be surprised. What America has done to the Middle East since 9/11 beginning with the invasion of Iraq (which had nothing to do with 911 makes you wonder doesn’t it?
The Chinese communist that made this video failed to report those attack crafts cutting in and out in front of ships in international waters. What country would allow this? Did Xi or Putin write this article.
You must be a paid shill for the Imperial States of America.
What country would allow 24×7 surveillance traffic from a hostile power at the very edges of it’s borders, including threats to ‘obliterate’ it and destroy it’s cultural sites? What country would allow a hostile power to surround it on all sides with bases while planning invasions and also imposing embargoes on critical medical supplies?
Do you think Iran could sail it’s navy along the edge of America’s maritime borders without interference by the US coast guard?
Oh look, dumbfck doesn’t understand politics, borders, international law. What a shock (it’s not his fault folks, this is a man whose mother gave him the tide pods).
I see you mentioned “International law” there. Isn’t that like unicorns, tooth fairies and Santa Claus?
Well, does the US adhere to international law? Do other countries adhere to international law? See, Arch Dumbfck doesn’t understand, is too ignorant (appears to be an islamofascist since he supports Iran) is a Jew hater and all around retard, that Russia (an enemy of the US) does this off US shores all the time, outside the 12 mile sovereignty zone. That’s just like the US in the Straights of Hormuz, Taiwan Straights, etc. Don’t align yourself with a person who has the intelligence of driftwood.
Let’s assume for a moment that something like “International Law” actually exists, for the sake of argument. Then my answers would be:
No.
and,
No.
(I’m not particulary interested in Arch’s side of the discussion)
What I’m interested in understanding is this concept of ‘International Law’ which to me looks like some kind of shared hallucination. Basically three reasons why I think there is no such thing as international law (While there may be Agreements, Conventions and ‘Understandings’ and Treaties):
1. Things that are called International Laws are ignored at will by countries depending on what military advantage they have at any given time. This is a historical and current fact. Laws that can be ignored are not laws.
2. “Law” in the legal sense can only exist if there is a single body to enforce it. There is no such thing as unenforceable law. We are not under a One-World-Government (yet), therefore there is no Such Thing as International “Law”.
3. The things we call “International Law” are selectively applied and enforced. All are not equal before these ‘Laws’. A law that does not apply equally, or equalise the playing field for weak and strong, fail at the purpose of law.
Sorry, I get triggered when I see people base arguments on “International Law”.
Ok, let’s discuss. International law exists to the extent sovereign nations agree to abide by it. It’s really just a contract of sorts to govern behavior. If a country agrees to be bound by the enforcement of that law (ICC) then it has some force behind it. The US doesn’t and that’s fine. I don’t agree that international laws are simply ignored based on military strength. Look at many muslim countries that follow sharia (subjugation of women, stoning, etc) These are weak countries, militarily, relative to other countries and they simply ignore international law. Finally, your claim that laws are equally applied is not accurate. Lots of laws are applied unequally, but that doesn’t mean they’re still not laws. But otherwise I agree with you.
For those who believe that “US would be able to create an occupation zone inside Iran”, should take a good look at this picture! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4089f7af25bee9fcadc07892d57cdb2cfc712b01a26628221a9db31932c8bb0e.jpg
occupation zone – for what purpose and causing the deaths of under-educated servicemen on a scale not seen since vietnam since iran would just throw all forces on the zone and the cannon fodder there. 1.7million squarekm and 85 million people, a walk in the park for some, like pompeo and netanyahu and kushner. but they are mistaken.
The forecast rely mostly on ground base artillery /missiles and torpedoes , how about the air power that mostly change the game in any conflict, who possessed the air power between the two states?
Dust masks, wood working masks, plastering masks, medical masks. Cant find a single one for sale in any of the countries that bombed syria. Save iraquis sxrians and yememis and yourself. End the 911 mafia.