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Faced with the possibility of a catastrophe, Washington changes its discourse on Ukraine.
Written by Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.
Recently, there has been a subtle pressure from the US for Kiev to resume peace talks with Russia. Despite the Western media insisting on spreading narratives about a “Ukrainian victory”, Washington still seems to prefer that the negotiations be done as quickly as possible. According to some analysts, this is the best way to avoid a catastrophe of an extended war.
The fact that the conflict in Ukraine is not yet over is exclusively due to Western support for Kiev. According to several experts, the Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime would have its forces totally neutralized by the Russian attacks, if it did not receive the constant packages of military and financial aid sent by NATO countries. The more the West participates by sending money, weapons and mercenaries, the longer the fighting becomes, although there is little or no chance of a real reversal of the military scenario, which points to a Russian victory.
However, recently, the public interest of the US, the nation that leads the anti-Russian coalition, has been to redirect the course of the battles to the negotiations table. Previously, American spokesmen – as well as European and Ukrainian ones – had made it clear that there would be no possibility of a peace agreement as long as Putin’s government in Moscow lasted. With the support of the media outlets, the West spread the discourse that the Russian president was “the one to blame” for the conflict and that the end of his “regime” was a necessary step to resume negotiations.
This discourse is no longer seen in official American pronouncements, which now focus on the need for bilateral talks in order to cease hostilities. While in Europe and Kiev anti-Russian animosity continues to grow day by day, in the US the topic of talks is commented on more and more rationally. The reasons for this change in rhetoric are still unknown, but the curious fact has led analysts to propose interpretations explaining the American “pro peace” turn.
In a recent article for Bloomberg, the American columnist Hal Brands lists three hypotheses to clarify why the US would be thinking about peace negotiations. The first, according to him, is the uncertainty regarding the future of the Ukrainian military scenario. Brands adopts the unsubstantiated and biased narrative that Kiev is winning successive victories on the battlefield, but he seems skeptical that this means a possibility of “defeating Russia”, considering that Moscow’s troops, now withdrawn from Kherson to safer positions, would be having the necessary time to recover and start new offensives.
Then, Brands also emphasizes the possibility of nuclear escalation, if Kiev continues to threaten the zones reintegrated into Russian territory. According to Russian military doctrine, the use of nuclear weapons in situations of threat to the State is legal, so if Ukraine starts constant attacks on Russian sovereign territory, the use of such weapons would be possible, annihilating chances of victory for Ukraine.
Third, the analyst points out that the pro-Ukraine coalition may not have a very long future. As winter arrives, war becomes more expensive, mainly because of sanctions that prevent European supplies of Russian gas. This tends to generate popular and political dissatisfaction in the western world with the course of the conflict. The columnist also points to the growth of the Republicans in the US as another sign of uncertainty for the future of the pro-Kiev alliance.
For Brands, West-Ukraine diplomacy may become unjustified if Kiev continues to refuse to negotiate with the Russians. Apparently, it is necessary to maintain the narrative that it is “Russia that wants war”, so the Ukrainian side needs to try to negotiate in order to garner Western support and justify the efforts of the allied countries. Finally, the analyst also states that a long-term struggle could harm US interests in other regions and damage its defense capacity – he cites, for example, the deterioration of security in the Taiwan Strait.
As a Westerner, Brands is based on two false assumptions: that Kiev is winning the war so far and that NATO is taking advantage of the partial results of the conflict. For him, it is necessary to know the exact time to end the war so that the benefits of the West are not reversed. However, despite his analysis error, he has interesting points of discussion, such as the evident fact that prolonging the confrontation will hurt the pro-Ukrainian coalition.
In fact, Russia continues to win and the strategic retreat from Kherson, where the Ukrainian troops are now surrounded and with no possibility of advancement, does not change this situation. NATO does not have the advantage, it is just reacting: unable to win its proxy war, it wants to prolong hostilities in order to inflict material damage against the Russians and destabilize the region as much as possible. However, if this position continues indefinitely, the costs can get out of control.
In this winter, the trend is that simultaneously Kiev is weakened on the battlefield and Europe collapses with the energy crisis. Social tensions will rise in the West in the face of an unprecedented crisis and the imminent defeat of Ukraine, as European and American citizens will see that their efforts have been in vain. Therefore, the American interest in proposing negotiations is not exactly to achieve peace, but to anticipate in saying that “it did everything possible” to avoid the catastrophe.
I agree with the writer of this article. I also add that the US lost a proxy war against Russia on Vietnamese soil. And now they will lose again on Ukrainian soil. Some suckers never learn.
The Zionist United States will note that it is not Negroes and Muslims who make up the population of Central Europe, but educated and enlightened white men.
This makes it difficult for the American Zionists to wage war in the areas near Central Europe, which they will notice in the future.
The American Zionists should stick to the traditional battlefields of the Middle East and Africa and leave Europe alone.
I didn’t know white guys came so stupid?
Read once more.
He didn’t say that.
How about Korea?
“Some suckers never learn” Has less to do with that than plain old war profiteering.
Russia has mobilized and deploying over 300k additional troops to the front line. Ukraine, is no longer able to keep the lights on in it’s major cities, to include it’s military industrial complex, or what is left of it. The operational initiative is shifting from Ukraine back to Russia. Near term, many western and eastern military analyst are predicting massive gains by Russia starting in December 2022.
What Ukraine, EU, USA can not or is not willing to do, i.e. put NATO flagged boots on the ground, may be stopped via diplomacy, hance the talks.
And don’t get me started talking about the displaced Ukrainians in Ukraine, Ukrainian refugees outside of Ukraine, and the impending civil disorder and lawlessness that can break out due to lack of services, such as heat, electricity, potable water, food, and personal security.
Nato troops are already on the ground badged up as Ukrainians,1200 Poles have been planted in a cemetery in Poland,the locals complain about the constant gun fire as a volley is fired over the latest Polish fool to fight and die in Ukraine.
Ukrainians are being used like proxy war ho’s by US.Gov to fight Russia. Ukrainians need to (WAKE UP). Understand that the US.Gov could give a shht about the Ukrainian people. Ukraine is just a battlefield to fight Russia. When you hear all this heroic /slava ukraine/ cheerleading, it’s only to deceive the masses into supporting this US.Gov ‘underdog war’. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to get destroyed. Yeah, America is your friend, Ukrainians/derp.
On to the EU. How can Europeans even like America any more after we blew up Nordstream? Now, we charge the EU 4x the price for US energy–this is like two massive slaps in the face. (Janet Nuland: F-the EU…in deed!) As an American, I cannot understand how we keep getting away with this shht in all corners of the world?
US.gov even hates Americans. US.gov continues letting American taxpayers get SKROOD by leaving our border wide open for 50+ years now. Our standard of living goes to hell while Americans get REPLACED by the illegal alien who’ll do everything for 1/2 price or less. Meanwhile, Mexy Drug Cartels control our border as they’ve funneled in 5 mill more illegals since Joe Bidet inauguration day. Poor stressed-out Drug Cartels having to resort to laundering their uber-obscene drug profits via American real estate. Meanwhile, countdown to next big war with Iran, while we still leave the border wide open to 2030! 400,000,000 dumbed down worker bees is the goal for 2030. Our potato potus said so.
Peace now looks like a psyop because people are wondering just what their ambitions are.
Fuck the UN and fuck peace talks. The only reason UN/NATO/LGBT/Ukro-Nazi pieces of shit want piece is the fact, that they know they will be steam-rolled by the Russian army in about a month.
That and they need to re-stock, re-organize and re-supply whatever remains of their army…
Only one word needed. LOSING!…
This is just like in the yugoslav war. When the albanians refused a proposed peace plan they where told by the international negotiating team that is is sure that the serbs will refuse it. So if the albanians accept it it will cost them nothing an they will be able to show the world that they wanted peace and the serbs dont.
They are just telling the ukrainians to pretend to want negotiations while the western media will keep on telling russia does not want negotiations to get the message across.
The only ones constantly whining about peace talks are the Jewish oligarchs that control and run Russia.
Tree leaves are falling, Ukraine soldiers and US UK Poland regular soldiers pretends dressing as Ukraine soldiers don’t have places to hide and have suffer very very heavy losses,sad US and UK will sell their widows and daughters as prostitutes and sex slaves in US and UK.
No need for peace talk with the US and Kiev. Russia will finish this war just like they have predicted before next summer. The EU and US are out of ammunitions and never won a war against an adversary like Russia. The Nationalists in Taiwan just won the election meaning Taiwan will stick with China and the US are fuck. Thanks to Pelosi. Russia will impose a new government in Kiev and Zelensky will be deported to the US where most of the criminals of this planet live. Long live to hell for the USSA.
Russia, Has set up for a good winter fight, and they are experts at that and have planned it. I commend them if this is true. FJB and the EU and NATO for doing what they did to cause all of this to the people of Ukraine and the world for that matter.
Keep calm. Is Russia winning now? Only the next weeks will show. Everything is possible. To win or to lose are close.