Will Russia Take Avdeyevka At All Costs?

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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

Ever since the failure of the Kiev regime’s much-touted counteroffensive, one that was supposed to “turn the tables” and “drive Russian forces behind the Urals”, the mainstream propaganda machine has been fighting tooth and nail to justify the failure, while some have engaged in straight up denial and stubbornly tried to portray it as a supposed “win”. However, the Neo-Nazi junta frontman Volodymyr Zelensky himself just admitted that they will be going on the defense. In reality, this was neither his decision, nor that of his NATO overlords, but the logical consequence of the failed counteroffensive. As the Kiev regime is trying to stay afloat amid disastrous losses, both in manpower and equipment, as well as a chronic lack of virtually everything needed to wage a war, the Russian military is slowly moving from active defense and defense-in-depth to careful and incremental offensive operations.

This process is yet to be launched on the entirety of the frontline, but it’s already ongoing in several important directions, including in Avdeyevka, a town some 15 km north/northwest of Donetsk. Before the NATO-orchestrated war that started in 2014, it was effectively part of the wider Donetsk conurbation. However, since then, the Kiev regime turned it into a stronghold from which it has kept shelling Donetsk daily for the last nearly ten years. The Neo-Nazi junta and NATO invested enormous resources into making Avdeyevka a virtual fortress, packed with artillery and various types of munitions necessary to keep the deadly attacks on Donetsk as regular as possible. Thousands of people, the vast majority of them civilians, have been killed, with many more wounded. The town itself was left without most of its inhabitants as the Kiev regime forces took over and heavily militarized it, particularly after the start of the SMO (special military operation).

Ever since, Russian forces have been targeting the artillery installations in Avdeyevka to prevent the near-constant shelling. The effort has been largely successful, but the high command in Moscow has been reluctant to launch any massive offensive operations towards the area and for good reason. Namely, the Neo-Nazi junta, aided by the best NATO specialists, spent nearly a decade building an elaborate network of fortifications in the entirety of the western part of Donbass, including Avdeyevka. A series of complex strongholds of that sort would’ve required tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of pieces of equipment of various kinds concentrated in the area, an exceedingly difficult and dangerous task that would’ve resulted in enormous Russian casualties. Not willing to turn the area into another meatgrinder, Moscow simply kept it in check by preventing the concentration of any large enemy formations (particularly artillery).

These would’ve jeopardized not only Donetsk and the surrounding areas, but the entirety of the frontline in central DNR. However, with the failure of the Kiev regime’s counteroffensive, the situation has changed drastically. Namely, Russia has not only managed to defeat the abortive attacks by inflicting insurmountable losses on the enemy, with relatively negligible losses for itself, but has also amassed considerable forces. Supported by its increasingly deadly Aerospace Forces (VKS) and continuous enhancements to its electronic and drone warfare, Moscow exponentially amplified its strike capabilities. Along with massively improved tactical ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), these pinpoint strikes have helped mechanized infantry to make incremental advances in areas surrounding Avdeyevka, putting the Neo-Nazi junta’s garrison there in an extremely difficult position.

It could be said that the Russian military is attempting to repeat the strategic success at Artyomovsk (previously known as Bakhmut) when the garrison there was defeated after several months of heavy fighting. It should be noted that Avdeyevka is not defended by the ideologically driven Neo-Nazi battalions, but the regular units of the Kiev regime. These formations are much less motivated to resist, while their equipment and training are almost certainly not on the same level. In addition, heavy losses have made it virtually impossible for the Neo-Nazi junta to ensure proper rotation of units in the area, while the opposite is true for Russian forces. This gives Moscow the ability to send fresh troops into the fray, while their opponents are exhausted by over 20 months of heavy attrition warfare in which they’ve never had any sort of advantage. However, this doesn’t mean Russia will mindlessly throw assault units into the fire and sacrifice them for a propaganda “win”.

It’s important to note that Moscow is in no hurry. On the contrary, the time is working against the Kiev regime that’s now facing an increasingly disillusioned populace, both at home and abroad, with many in the political West talking about the so-called “Ukraine fatigue”. Russian military sources, such as the “Operation Z: War Correspondents of the Russian Spring” Telegram channel, are reporting extensively on the incremental progress of their forces. Citing Ukrainian assessments, Russian experts claim that their troops have “a total advantage”. This is not an exaggeration, as Moscow has sent some of its best and most experienced troops to the area, supported by heavy armor, all sorts of artillery and frontline aviation, among other things. This includes thousands of drones that are conducting tactical ISR and strikes against Neo-Nazi junta forces, which is affecting both their already crumbling morale and increasingly scarce resources.

According to “Operation Z”, as of December 3, Russian troops are steadily carrying out assault operations, concentrating mainly on Stepovoye (just northwest of Avdeyevka) and its outskirts. The delivery of equipment and personnel takes place in Krasnogorovka, the main point of troop concentration, with which they keep advancing further west. Russian forces are currently trying to take control of all areas between the railways to secure their flank and continue advancing toward Ocheretino. North of Stepovoye, the Russian military is attempting the encirclement of Berdychi. They currently control the eastern part, the most populated area of the settlement, but are closing in on the center. The Russians are advancing in large numbers to the south of Berdychi, trying to press on toward Stepovoye. Their advantages are overwhelming, particularly in terms of numerical superiority, equipment, logistics and other modern battlefield aspects.

Target acquisition, aided by force reconnaissance (conducted by special forces), artillery, drones, attack helicopters, tanks and infantry are all used to great effect against the entrenched Kiev regime forces. According to Semyon Pegov, a prominent Russian war blogger (known for his WarGonzo Telegram channel), Avdeyevka is effectively a fortress due to its countless reinforced bunkers. He has also compared the fighting to the infamous trench warfare of World War One. Pegov recently reported that Russian forces took control of Avdeyevka’s industrial zone and that the cluster munitions used by the VKS are inflicting enormous losses on the Neo-Nazi junta forces. However, as previously mentioned, Moscow will need to tread carefully to avoid massive casualties. It’s impossible to conduct this sort of offensive operation without losses, but the goal of the high command is to keep them at a minimum.