Written by Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai; Originlaly appeared at his blog
Trump will pull out US forces in 30 days…. Trump won’t withdraw now… Trump will pull out from Syria in four months…The US forces began withdrawing military equipment but not the personnel… Trump will maintain a 20 mile buffer zone in Syria…
All these contradictory announcements have come from the White House in the last month or so, indicating some combination of the current occupant of the White House’s lack of experience in foreign policy, or lack of control of his own administration. Nobody in the Middle East believes Trump. Only President Erdogan confirmed the serious intention of the US to withdraw from Syria but was knocked down by Trump’s threat to “cripple the Turkish economy if Turkey attacks the Kurds”. But soon after Trump’s threat to Erdogan, he again changed his mind and suddenly announced a new plan for a buffer zone “to protect the Kurds”, Turkey’s worse enemies in the Levant. Trump is signaling a high degree of confusion about his intention to stay or leave Syria.
It doesn’t matter if the world doesn’t understand what Trump’s plan is. There is no point in trying to analyse and predict the next step because Trump himself doesn’t seem to know what to do next. He wakes up with one decision and seems to change it hours later or the following day.
Nevertheless, Trump’s continuously changing plans are not preventing his adversary the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani – the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in the al Quds Brigade responsible for supporting all movements of the oppressed peoples in the world, mainly the Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi, Palestinian and Afghan groups, but others as well – from making plans to counter Trump in Syria and Iraq.
Well informed sources say “Soleimani is holding meetings with various of his allies’ groups in the Middle East to stand against US forces and push them away from Iraq and Syria”. According to these sources, neither Iran nor Russia believe in Trump’s declared intention to withdraw and both are convinced that at least some US forces will remain in the Levant. Soleimani is planning to move more aggressively with his allies once the last ISIS stronghold east of the Euphrates is reconquered. ISIS maintains an area of around 15 sqkm with several villages on the Euphrates and is currently under attack by Kurdish forces supported by the coalition.
President Bashar al-Assad agreed with the Iraqi National Security Advisor Faleh al-Fayyad to reactivate coordination of tribal groups in northeast Syria with Iraqi forces. “Assad gave the green light to Iraq to coordinate with the Arab tribes in Syria and to push Iraqi security forces into Syria when and if needed to end ISIS control if the US is not willing to finishing the job quickly”.
Such an arrangement has potential disadvantages Syria and Iraq are aware of. The US forces occupying Northeast Syria could attack Iraqi-Syrian forces attacking ISIS controlled areas as they did in the past. Last year, Israeli jets bombed the Hashd al-Shaabi command and control headquarters on the borders with Syria and US jets twice destroyed Syrian forces trying to attack ISIS, one group crossing the Euphrates, and other advancing towards al-Tanf.
“If and when the US attack Iraqi forces, such an act of aggression will put pressure on the Iraqi government to ask for the total withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq. If this doesn’t happen, another source of leverage will be to make sure US forces in Iraq are under continuous threat. There are many groups in Mesopotamia unfriendly to the US, determined to see their country free from any foreign troops, particularly the US forces, considered the source of all the troubles the Middle East suffers from”, say the sources.
Thus, the “Axis of the Resistance” is planning to face down US hegemony in the Levant and Mesopotamia. Iraq and Syria are not friends of Washington and will never act like the Gulf monarchies propped up by US protection. If the US establishment decides to stay in Syria and continue its occupation of the country or establish a “buffer zone”, the cards will be reshuffled again.
If this happens, Turkey, considered to date a friend of Russia, may become an enemy by occupying northeast Syria and deploying forces in the buffer zone suggested by Trump. If and when Turkey does that, it will pass into the hostile camp by opposing Russia’s plan to protect the integrity of Syria. Such an accommodation with the US might help Turkey fulfill its dream of occupying part of Syria. In this case, Turkey will be considered an enemy and will suffer attacks from the Syrians, supported by Damascus. Local Arab tribes and Kurds will be armed, enough to defend themselves and to counter attack Turkish forces or their allies in al-Hasaka.
The Kurds and Damascus will then have the same objective, i.e. the return of northeast Syria to Syrian army control rather than subject to Turkish control or a US-Turkish understanding. And Iran will fight the US through its allies in the Middle East, including Iraq. What is unclear is why the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF – Led by Kurds) announced its readiness to support the creation of a safe-zone, a zone Turkey is gathering for it over 80,000 men and is hoping to control around 420 km wide and 32 km deep (bigger than the seize of Lebanon) in Kurdish controlled provinces of Raqqa and al-Hasaka.
The US establishment has asked the Iranians to mediate with the Taliban to spare US forces from lethal attacks. The US establishment also asked Iran to refrain from attacking its troops in Iraq. Assent to these requests will be forthcoming if the US responds to one important request from Iran: total withdrawal from Syria. If Trump cannot do it, the US president may be sweating through a hot summer this year.
Proofread by: C.G.B.
to make matter even more complicated : Russia need turkey for its turkstream gas pipe
If America is defeated in Syria and Iraq an Iranian gas pipeline will be built. If Turkey starts to behave like Ukraine, Iran will sell more gas, and Turkey will lose money.
Really this is a war about who controls global energy supplies. The US has controlled global oil supplies since WWII, but they were stupid and didn’t see the rise of natural gas. So the US is desperate to destroy all competitors and regain control of global energy supplies.
If America wins, the world will go into another dark age.
Oh shut up with that Western BOLLOCKS propaganda will you !
Turk stream ( IF ever accepted by EU ) in quantity doesn’t represent not even one fifth of the quantity exported through North Stream 1 and Ukraine at the moment! And when North Stream2 starts to work Turk Stream will represent even much less! Turk Stream has quantities sufficient only for Balkan countries and there will be nothing left for Italy and others up North !
Turkey has as much interest in Turk Stream as Russia! So NO Russia doesn’t “need” Turkey for “Turk Stream” because Turkey needs even more cheap Russian gas and money they get from the Turk Stream gas transport over their territory!
turk stream project is almost complete , and will start operating in 2019
I know that, thanks all the same…..
There is always somebody who doesn’t know so good to say those things… Actually Turk stream will start to operate when they get green light from EU …When European Commission and other gangsters and US stooges say so….if they say so…
lol……my writing a year ago!!
we are lucky to have you….. you deserve reward….give yourself treat and change hairstyle
Is time for the russians to decide if a gas pipe, is more important to them than branded as opportunistic whores, worst than what the UK/Usrael shown themselves to be. All they did for Syria allegedly and not their own interest, all the dead russian soldiers it be for nothing if they keep up what they been doing the last year, that has absolutely nothing to do with Syrian interest, but her lover affair with the turks.
The Americans have been stopping Russian gas pipelines, Syria gave Russia the opportunity to block an American pipeline. If the US was allowed to carry out its plan unopposed Russia would have been isolated from the world bankrupted and taken over by the US. The end result would be the US ruling over the whole world, freedom of speech and action extinguished and poverty for all except Americun* plutocrats.
If Russia and Iran had done nothing in Syria, Syria would end up like Somalia, Libya etc. People say the Americans never win, because after the US has destroyed a country it never recovers, but chaos is what America wants, that’s why they train and fund so many terror groups.
So although Russia is acting in Russia’s interests, it is also aiding the whole world.
what world will that be? The western world that is bankrupted and only can pay with IOUs and goods that most of them are supplied as raw materials, from russia -asia and africa?
There are many ways to skin a cat. I agree that russia has done good stopping and destroy part of isis in syria, but they not only have not finish the job now they are making it worst. Their agreements with the turks and the relocation of much of the turkish backed terrorist have found their way more than 50% of them into europe and several thousand of them into the balkan area where the next war is prepared.
Half done jobs in the name of national interest do more harm in the long run than good. And I see the deals they strike against syrian people and interest, that are supposed to defend and be their allies. If you dont then you are blind to facts. By the way I dont need any one to point out to me what good russians did and where. I am fully aware of the temporary good they make as well all the bad they causing to happen so………..
This war is about shia crescent. The pipelines are only the covering masks.
Despite naive assertions like urs being written since beginning of Syrian campaign – Russia is doing more than well in Syria :)
speak for yourself and yes you are naive and disconnected from reality. Your post indicate this.
:)) Syrian interests are Syrian interests and for them to solve and manage. If it is in Syrian interest for Russian soldiers to die in thousands in war against Israel, USA, Turkey and their proxies- than they have to pursue Russians that it is in the interest of Russia as well.. Russia already give more for Syrian interests than any other country – besides, Putin clearly stated Russian interests in Syria before sending army there (google up)…
I dont need to google anything. You may have to get properly informed as to why russia did what they did and also be impartial when you judge facts in syria.
By the way none refuse what russia did in order to keep Assad into power. So before answering is best you understand what I said and why.
Apart from “i know everything” and “you know nothing and get informed” – u wanted to say what?
i never said I know everything and what I advice you stand.
Since last year the Syrian people interests are not coincided with Russian geopolitic projects. Russians are not helping Syria out of their good heart.
So how would you call all those dead Russian soldiers and pilots dead in Syria huh !? Why the fuck did they die for ?!!! For 2 fucking Russian military bases (that were paid already by Russian intervention and equipment) or they died to impress Assad maybe?!
Russian help in Syria was CRUCIAL and still is and without that help Syria with all other help they have would NEVER survive as country! While you go into microscopic analysis of Russian “heart” and sincerity of their feelings and intentions have DECENCY at least to remember that Syria is NOT THEIR COUNTRY and that Russians just like Iranians have also right on their own interests as well!
Let’s clarify once again that I am referring to the administrations and not to the people of the countries. I have nothing with people and more or less we have the same problems to solve all around the world. I didn’t say that Russian intervention in Syria was not good. It was decisive and efficient to prevent Syria become Lebanon and destroyed terrorists in masses. I also understand that Russia can not go directly against US and NATO, that could be very stupid and Putin and his military expertise are very smart to know that it could be a world catastrophe. I think our perception is different. I believe there are not innocent interventions and wars and at a certain time it is becoming very obvious. We all understand that cheep gas to Europe will use either Russian pipe lines or those crossing Turkey today or in the future. So we will see more severe strangles between various interests. I must notice though that these interests do not include the people but only the elites of the countries involved. So its not about my scull or your scull lol
” these interests do not include the people”
Oh yes they do in Russia! All gas exports represent significant improvement for Russian economy thus standard of living.Except Russia is FORCED to spend too much on defense also so that affects people also. ————– “gas to Europe will use either Russian pipe lines or those crossing Turkey” ———-
NO IT IS NOT zero sum game! Turk Stream IS RUSSIAN pipeline and if Russia would find economically justifiable they would build even bigger pipeline through Turkey! The biggest obstacles above all are EU and US not Turkey ! Both countries Turk-Russ would benefit from that. Of course Russia prefers more RELIABLE partner like Germany to harvest the profits of gas transit simply because Germany is less much risque than Turkey and bigger protection from US and EU obstructions of new pipeline
————— “I believe there are not innocent interventions ” ———————-
And why is Russian intention to liberate Syria for her own benefit NOT innocent?!!? Is that some devious Russian plan to steal bucket of oil from Syria maybe?! Why don’t you speak it out fucking loud an clear what is that sinister plan of Russian government ?! You have been playing with this pipeline bullshit without saying exactly WHAT pipeline through Turkey…. and how is that pipline going to screw Russia badly .
Please do enlighten me because I stand in darkness here. Shed some of your wisdom upon me and free me from my ignorance.
That will be a long answer and I don’t want to waste my time with somebody who thinks he knows everything.
Whow you caught me there by surprise !
So you even know that I “know everything” and I didn’t know that ?!?
I didn’t even know that till you kindly have explained to me ! How stupid of me to ask questions at all if I “know everything” !
You are right don’t answer my questions because I must know your answer already ! Is that the reason why I have feeling that your answer is not going to be good? Sorry ! No more questions cause …”I know everything”
Good boy lol, for your info Liverpool 0-C.Palace 1
thanks buddy
And which country in the world can afford 3th world war confrontation (with rest of the world), giving equipment in billions for free, losing thousands of soldiers – solely, out of the “good hearth”?
A world war III will find this planet in ashes. So it’s not a matter of who benefits.
ok.. And which country in the world can afford war or proxi war confrontation (with all western countries + proxis), giving equipment in billions for free, losing thousands of soldiers – solely, out of the “good heart”?
It is not even question of affordability… It is question of sanity ! Russia would be fucking INSANE to start WW3 and nuclear Armageddon to make sacrifice of her own country and her own people just over forcing liberation of Syria or ANY OTHER country! The do not even have formally signed alliance between 2 countries and Russia has NO OBLIGATION to help Syria at all !
These people who permanently attack Russia for never doing enough have NO contact with the reality what so ever. And ask from Russian government to do something for them unimaginable and unacceptable to destroy Russia in effort to save others!
I concur.. Some people just cant see that Russia was forced to intervene in order to protect their own borders from terrorism. Putin stated that clearly and openly. Forced – because they have no resources to intervene around the world out of their “good heart” solely. Russia at the moment is fighting off west in economical, financial, political, informational war around the world – and armed conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. Russia cannot afford open conflict with Israel, USA, Turkey and Kurds in Syria! Solely for interests of Syria (aka “good heart”)… Would be Russia’s doom probably – would that be in the interest of Syria?
Not question for you :)
You have said it all…I couldn’t have said it better even if I try…
2.5 million $ per day average expenses and occasional wounded and dead, loss of equipment… is all Russia can afford in Syria without falling in US-NATO trap or bankrupting herself.
I do not know what it is…..Maybe it is influence of video games so some of these youngsters have no contact with the reality at all…
The problem for Russia is the control of the Bosphorus.
that too.
Bosphorus can be problem for Turkey as well. If they want to walk over international agreement and close the Bosphorus for Russia they must be ready for war with Russia also.
That is so, but if the Turks blocked the Bosphorus and a war was declared between Russia and Turkey, NATO would be involved and the Bosphorus would be blocked anyway. This would impact very quickly on Syria.
The outcome of such a war would be unpredictable as well as the timescale.
This is what the US wants, Russia and Turkey to slug it out whilst America fans the flames.
True… bat then that’s what US wants all the time. A proxy wars where other countries start wars and other people die for US interest and objectives against U.S. opponents. While Americans try to stay least possible directly involved with their ground troops to avoid casualties. Their only preference is to indiscriminately kill people with their drones from great distance. Or to bomb the defenseless countries into the stone age so that they can bring there “democracy” in the shape of LGBTQ parades and modern neocolonialism.
“worst than what the UK/Usrael shown themselves to be”
you seem to be wishful thinking again, at least in this universe.
give it time and we see if I have wishful thinking or a very realistic one based on what is written on the wall as we speak.
how much time?
let’s make it 100.000 years and see where everybody is.
The Persian General Soleimani, had the wisdom and integrity to bring together the Shia, Christian and Sunni PMU’s (Peoples Militia Units) in Iraq. Together with the Iraqi Army they were able to defeat ISIS. When the USAF was ‘accidentally’ bombing the Iraqi Army rather than ISIS, he had the PMU’s finish ISIS off from a different quarter. With the ‘Calaphate’ reduced to ‘cell’ size Iraq can now recover. That clearly leaves the US no rational reason for its presence. Suggesting he would consider abandoning his goal of ridding Iraq and Syria of US occupation forces is quite simply slander, he deserves better.
oil would serve as a plausible excuse to stay
“That clearly leaves the US no rational reason for its presence.”
US doesn’t need “rational reason” to justify their presence….they’ll say ISIS is reason… But everybody knows that they are in Iraq because of oil and attack on Iran and they have NO intention to leave (unless forced to). As long they are there ( ISIS will continue to exist thanks to their support)
Energy roads are full of human blood !!!
Very good article, one of the best in very long time….worth reading It will be GOOD that Turkey betrays Astana agreement… That will unite absolutely everybody in Syria (except foreign Jihadist’s and Turk stooges in Idlib) That will unite all Syrian Arabs and Kurds into one front against Turk (and any other foreign occupation) of Syria
Soleimani isn’t neither a jew or an american, so i don’t see how can it be conceivied that he’ll trade something that he does not own with a country that exists on the other side of the world.
Generally speaking it becomes clearer by the day that zionist writers have plunged into confusion.
I said his last article was brilliant, but I can’t say the same about this one.
“There is no point in trying to analyse and predict the next step because Trump himself doesn’t seem to know what to do next. He wakes up with one decision and seems to change it hours later or the following day”. Well when your being assaulted from all sides by even your own team members, you don’t just have to think quickly, you have to move quickly on your feet as well. What Elijah thinks of as being flip flopping on Trump’s part might be just exactly what Trump had to do to get things done, maybe history will show us every single thing Trump did was to his eventual benefit, even though it looked like flip flopping at the time, I have no idea what the real truth is, Elijah may be right, but then again history might also prove him wrong, it might tell us even though we didn’t know it at the time, Trump was doing everything he should have, in few years we may all find out what the truth was.
And he hasn’t been paying enough attention to what the Arab League have been saying, but I have, over the last 5 months I’ve read more statements from the League than I ever have before, they’re making their demands loud and clear, and they’re not doing what Elijah is telling us they’re doing, it’s the exact opposite. The League gave up on trying to split up the Shia alliance before the end of 2017, they all decided that they could still work together [even within that type of fractured framework], and the only goal for the League was to get the League to work the way it was supposed to when it was first envisaged. The League was supposed to put regional interests before individual countries interests, but they haven’t been doing that until recently, now they’ve started to again. The biggest enemy to the League now is outside influence, they may not call out the US and Israel by name, but they see them as the biggest obstruction to advancing the League Nations interests. What the league have been doing, contrary to what Elijah said, is patching up relations between the Saudis and the Iranians, not trying to divide them, Assad only agreed to cooperate with the League by insisting there could be no fracturing of the alliance, that was his only sticking point and he won out. The league have already come together and started acting as a block, even if the deal isn’t signed sealed and delivered yet. And most of them are now looking to cooperate with Russia, instead of the US, which will also be good for the region. I keep saying the war in Syria ended back in January last year, the league ‘FORCED’ the US, Israel and the EU to end the war back then or a little while after, but they couldn’t force Erdogan to stop, this is just Erdogan’s war now, no one else’s, just Erdogan’s war. As to the Iraqis, they’ve been threatening to boot the US out not just ask them to leave, there have been several statement from the Iraqis to that effect over the last few months, maybe not put as harshly as I have, but with the same message to the US. The last article from Elijah was brilliant, this one is the exact opposite.