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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
Although April 1 is a day of practical jokes, what it brought to Turkey is anything but. The recent defeat of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in local elections, when the opposition effectively won, particularly the Republican People’s Party (CHP) that got the most support (37.7% of the overall vote, compared to AKP’s 35.5%), may soon bring about tectonic changes in Turkish domestic affairs. However, perhaps not all is lost for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country’s incumbent. Namely, the AKP has been losing influence in big cities for quite some time, which is why it refocused most of its attention to the rural areas, trying to double down on drawing support where it exists or is strong enough to keep the current government in power at least a bit longer.
This is why Erdogan’s main cards boil down to a volatile mix of Neo-Ottomanism, political Islam and pan-Turkism, none of which he can really implement. However, all three are very useful for domestic consumption, particularly as the Turkish economy has been struggling for years. The problem for Erdogan and the ruling AKP is that the ideological, nationalist and religious approach is beginning to lose momentum as the electorate is switching priorities to the less idealistic realm. Realizing that this could cost him power and understanding that Turkey’s economic (and, by extension, societal) problems stem from its dependence on the political West, Erdogan might soon start changing his previously (at least somewhat) balanced position to a more pro-NATO one.
This isn’t to say that Erdogan changed his opinion, but it simply boils down to realpolitik. In simpler terms, if he doesn’t change his (geo)political approach, the opposition definitely will, so if somebody has to do it, it might as well be him and the AKP. It seems we’re already seeing this and the United States plans to capitalize on it to the maximum. Namely, Washington DC is set to significantly expand the import of military-grade explosives from Ankara, all in order to support the expansion of the fledgling American and NATO artillery shells production, a field in which Russia dominates with a production capacity that’s around three times larger. The US hopes this could help replenish its seriously depleted domestic stockpile.
If Ankara and Washington DC were to do this, it would bring about a significant expansion of artillery production in the US, enabling a more consistent supply of artillery munitions to various allies, vassals and satellite states. This is particularly important for the Neo-Nazi junta, as its forces have been suffering from a chronic lack of shells, diminishing their already low level of direct fire support against the increasingly powerful Russian military. The acquisition of large quantities of Turkish explosives will surely result in higher interdependence between the US and Turkey, which may bring about an improvement in relations after years of tensions. However, while this might be useful for Erdogan, it demonstrates once again that Ankara cannot be trusted.
In other words, Turkey would surely become NATO’s main Trojan horse, not just in Greater Eurasia, but the multipolar world as a whole. We shouldn’t forget that Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman ambitions, mixed with an attempt to harness the power of the previously mentioned political Islam, helped kickstart the truly unprovoked and brutal NATO aggression in Libya and Syria, ever so euphemistically dubbed “civil wars” in the so-called “free press”. Ankara’s expansionism resulted in its deep involvement in both wars, making it instrumental in destabilizing virtually the entire Middle East for the sake of the political West. Worse yet, this continued even after the US-led belligerent power pole launched a coup to depose the Turkish president himself in July 2016.
For instance, Washington DC and Ankara have continued playing a leading role in supporting various ISIS-linked terrorist groups in Syria and elsewhere, particularly against Iranian-aligned Shia militias fighting on the side of Damascus. What’s more, while Erdogan is officially furious at Israel due to its actions in Gaza, the Turkish military and the IDF are still working very closely, particularly in Syria. Turkey’s close ties with the US will surely continue (behind the scenes, obviously), helping maintain strong relations between the two NATO members, but if this should extend to Ukraine, Washington DC might be willing to reconsider its stance on Ankara’s return to the troubled F-35 program. In fact, the infamous neocon warmonger Victoria Nuland said so back in January.
Namely, the now former Deputy Secretary of State and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs stated that the US would be “willing to provide F-35 fifth generation fighter jets to Turkey” if it meets “American conditions in regards to ensuring it does not operate Russian S-400 air defense systems alongside [the F-35]”. If Washington DC returns Ankara to “the fold” and the latter acquires the F-35, it would give NATO another certain carrier of the latest B61 thermonuclear bombs, helping the belligerent alliance in surrounding Russia with hostile nuclear-armed vassals stretching from Norway, Finland, the Baltic states and Poland to Turkey, possibly even Romania and Bulgaria in the future, as the relevant military infrastructure is being built there.
turkish economy has been struggling for years? well that’s what you get for siding with the western globalists. no country controlled by the wef and the u.s petro dollar flourishes.
there is a saying never turn your back to a turk or he will put a knife in it.
okay .so who was this idiot say such a thing.
not idiot but every nation that ever had/has the displeasure of direct contact with turkoids (and former ottomans).
egypt muslim brotherhood – got stabbed in the back by truk not long ago.
i remember erdogay saying he would never* talk to sisi… fuk you and your fuking country ape. you are making idf uniforms and trading with “israel” while they are killing palestinians… all you fuk think about is money, no shit you are sleeping with zionists.
oh you people loot syria and supported isil – oh i’m sorry “freedom fighters” that behead people.
isreal trains their pilots in turkey cause there is not enough airospace for that in tiny isreal. but they are in the process of changing it. with the help of their friends in turkey, saudi and of course the west.
i know what turkey government doing and has been doing for years. i’m mainly pissed at turkish people… clowns cry about palestinians but none of them even dare to say a word to erdogay clown or turkish government. they just want to act like they care, they fuking don’t it pure bs pr.
also, just remember these clowns said during syrian civil war and after that. turkey and turkish people still support the same terrorists in syria…
maybe you should consider your meditation.
turkey would triple cross, imo. they know any support for kiev is symbolic. kiev already has full nato support and the decadent west is no longer able to win against peers or near-peers in conventional warfare. hence why they resort to assymetrical, terrorist warfare. turkey would probably end up selling the f35 to russia and china even though turkey would never receive the most advanced versions of it — and even though russia doesn’t really need it to be able to shoot em down either
‘turkey would probably end up selling the f35 to rus..’
the f35 is a turkey on its own. it’s high maintenance, vulnerable and certainly not cut for modern aerial warfare.
this decade’s lockheed starfighter but without the sleek retro cool looks.
turkey has always since ww1 been playing both sides. turkey is the most helpful single nato member for russia. turkey has been selling ukraine really sh#tty weaponry with high cost.
this shitty weaponry helped aliev to kill armenians and defeat the karabakh forces. the surprising successfull war in 2021 inspired the ukrainians and made them believe with turkish and israeli drones they could easily defeat the upgraded sowjet tech russian army like aliev with turkish and israeli help the dated sowjet tech armenian karabakh army. without erdogan the ukrainians would have not even tried to fight just like they did not try in 2014.
‘will turkey fully support neo-nazi junta in exchange for return to f-35 program?’
a) yes. but not before erdogan demands extra freebies, kickbacks and guarantees first. after all he made a tidy sum out of sweden joining nutto!
erdogan is a cryptozionist pig, a liar, traitor, thief and terrorist.
let them bankrupt themselves with the f35 program. in a real war most of them will be on the ground getting maintenance while your air force is being systematically destroyed. i’ll go with what peter the great said about the turks.
trust erdogan? i don’t think so. he would sell his own grandmother if the price was right!
putin will regret saving erdogans life years ago. i normally dont do this but in this rare case “told you so”