Without Light, Heat, or Trains: How Russian Strikes Are Deepening Ukraine’s Crisis

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On November 4-5, Russia and Ukraine continued exchanging strikes. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian air defense forces destroyed 40 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched approximately 80 attack UAVs, of which 61 were shot down or suppressed.

Following recent massive Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure, the challenges of the heating season have reached a critical point. According to Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleg Seminsky, around 60% of the gas infrastructure has been destroyed. The energy crisis may lead to extremely serious consequences for the civilian population.

Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, stated:

“If combined heat and power plants (CHPPs) in Kyiv are disabled and there is no prospect of restoration within three days at temperatures of -10°C or lower, Kyiv must announce: a) draining water from residential buildings, and b) evacuation. If the boilers at CHPP-5 or CHPP-6 are destroyed with no prospect of resuming operation within a maximum of three days at -10°C, this constitutes a scenario of a man-made catastrophe.”

A critical situation is also unfolding in transport. Deputy head of the supervisory board of Ukrzaliznytsia, Serhiy Leshchenko, told the Verkhovna Rada that Ukraine’s railway system could stop due to catastrophic conditions:

“All of the railway’s resources are exhausted. The railway may stop soon. We have lost 49% of freight traffic. We need the help of Ukrainian taxpayers. The net loss over nine months is 7.19 billion hryvnias. We require 16 billion hryvnias from the budget to compensate for Ukrzaliznytsia’s losses.”

Another significant blow was the sabotage of the Izmail–Odesa railway line, reportedly carried out by Odesa partisans. This behind-the-lines operation disrupted the movement of a freight train carrying NATO ammunition and equipment from Romania, disrupting the supply chain.

Details on Strikes in Ukraine

Russian strikes between November 4 and 5 targeted facilities sustaining the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ operations.

• Dnipropetrovsk region: A road bridge over the Vovcha River near Vasylivka, a vital transport artery for military convoys and supplies, was damaged.

• Dobropillia and the surrounding area (DPR) were struck in two significant attacks. A rear command post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, located in a school building, was destroyed by a guided aerial bomb, causing the detonation of stored ammunition. Additionally, a strike on the coal distribution unit at the Dobropilska Central Concentration Plant damaged critical energy infrastructure.

• In the Mykolaiv region, the hangar complex of the Mykolaiv Aircraft Repair Plant (NARP) sustained significant damage from strikes. The NARP plant was responsible for the medium-level repair and modernization of Su-24 aircraft, as well as the repair of D-30KP engines for Il-76/Il-78 transport aircraft. The strikes on the enterprise will lead to, at a minimum, a reduction in the rate at which Su-24s are returned to combat service and will necessitate the transfer of these maintenance works to other facilities, which will place an additional strain on logistics.

• Other regions: Reports indicate damage to the last remaining gas station in Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv region, as well as to energy facilities across Sumy and Chernihiv regions, leading to widespread disruptions in electricity and water supplies throughout these areas.

Strikes on Russian Territory

Most Ukrainian UAVs were shot down by Russian air defenses over Voronezh (11) and Rostov (8) regions. Damage was also reported to an energy facility in the suburbs of Vladimir, along with a repeat strike on the Oryol Thermal Power Plant. Additionally, two oil-pumping stations in Yaroslavl region reportedly came under attack.

Against this backdrop, the US has begun deploying new Meadowlands and Remote Sensing Terminal counterspace electronic warfare systems. These will complement the previously operative Counter Communications System and are designed to disrupt the operation of enemy reconnaissance satellites.

The systems generate powerful jamming signals across the S-, C-, X-, and Ku-bands, allowing them to disrupt the operation of radar satellites such as the Russian Pion-NKS, Obzor-R, and Kondor-FKA, as well as the Chinese Yaogan-29 and Jiangbing-6 satellites. These systems may provide the US with a strategic advantage in information and reconnaissance warfare.

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