Xi’s Arguments Are Stronger Than Trump’s. The Result Of The Global Standoff Hinges On Russia’s Stance

Support SouthFront

Click to see the full-size image

In the first half of the 21st century, the confrontation between the United States and China has become central to global geopolitics. The future of the global economy depends on these two countries. They are competing for dominance in the most economically developed region of the planet: the Asia-Pacific. However, bloody battles are not taking place in Taiwan or on the Korean Peninsula, but rather in Ukraine. Why?

The outcome of the confrontation between the United States and China will be decided by the Russian Federation’s final choice. The Kremlin is faced with a dilemma: it must decide whether to fully align itself with its powerful Asian neighbor or take a neutral position friendly to America. In many ways, the situation resembles the early 1970s during the Cold War. Back then, a smart Richard Nixon’s and Henry Kissinger’s policy allowed them to remove Maoist China from the international communist block and unite the Americans’ and Chinese’s potential to counter the Soviet Union.

Washington understands the importance of Russia. Ukraine is precisely the lever of influence on Moscow. It is an attempt to blackmail Russia to break its alliance with China. The Alaska summit demonstrates the Trump administration’s deep understanding of the problem. Russia is Xi Jinping’s strategic rear. It can provide China with all the necessary raw materials, including oil, natural gas, coal, and agricultural products. Most importantly, it aims to disrupt America’s plans to isolate China’s trade and logistics routes.

The Chinese economy is export-oriented, primarily to the European Union. The vast majority of goods are shipped by sea. In the event of a war between China and the U.S., Washington’s allies could paralyze all foreign trade. A tight chain stretching from the Japanese island of Hokkaido to the Philippines would cut China off from the world. Russia provides a direct transport route that allows goods to be delivered from China’s wealthy coastal provinces to the European Union.

Of course, this requires infrastructure. Yet, much has already been done. Thanks to its close ties with Russia and other countries in the Eurasian region, Beijing can partially diversify its foreign trade routes in the event of a confrontation. Additionally, Moscow is positioned to provide China with large-scale military-technical assistance. The Russian army has invaluable experience in modern warfare. Neither the Chinese, the Taiwanese, nor the Americans have such skills. The Russian military-industrial complex is experiencing explosive growth. Soon, Russia will be able to fully meet the needs of its armed forces and help its allies.

The United States would inevitably lose in a confrontation with both China and Russia. Or even with just China if Russia maintained its “armed neutrality.” The only sensible move for the White House would be to drive a wedge between the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai. It seems that this was Donald Trump’s main goal at the meeting in Anchorage. Did the American president succeed? Well, it seems he did not. Trump promised Putin that he could extract concessions from Kiev. At the very least, Trump said he would force Vladimir Zelensky to order the withdrawal of all forces from the Donbass region in exchange for a ceasefire. Nearly two weeks have passed, yet Ukraine’s position remains unchanged. The United States continues to supply weapons to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The fact that the weapons are now being sold rather than transferred does not change the situation.

The historic summit in Alaska may be overshadowed by Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Xi Jinping on September 3. The Russian leader will arrive in Beijing to celebrate Victory Day over militaristic Japan. Eighty years ago, the Soviet and Chinese peoples defeated a terrible enemy together. The current celebrations have great symbolic significance. These are not mere guesses. According to the Kyodo news agency, Japan has asked the leaders of European and Asian countries, via diplomatic channels, not to attend the celebrations in Beijing. They claim that the celebrations have an “anti-Japanese undertone.” It would be strange if pro-Japanese narratives dominated on September 3, wouldn’t it? Similarly, it would be strange to see pro-German events on May 9.

The combined symbolic capital of Russia and China frightens Western analysts. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which opens in Beijing on August 31, is an important event that marks China’s regional leadership. “Xi Jinping will want to use the summit to show that the American-led international order is crumbling and that the White House’s efforts since January to counter China, Iran, Russia, and now India have been ineffective,” says Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of The China-Global South Project. This is the largest SCO summit since 2001. It is also the first time in seven years that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China.

On August 26, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Parliament Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin met in Beijing. The Chinese leader called for joint efforts to build a “fair world order.” “The two sides should continue their traditional friendship and deepen strategic mutual trust,” reported the state-run Xinhua news agency. According to Western media reports, the Beijing parade will showcase new military equipment, including missile systems capable of striking targets in the United States. Vladimir Putin’s attendance at the parade sends a message to Washington.

In fact, both America and China are competing with each other to see who can offer Russia more. The Americans are capable of making concessions in Europe. They could stop supporting the Kiev regime, end European attempts to isolate the Baltic Sea, promote lifting sanctions. Invest heavily in the Russian economy, and find ways to resume energy supply from Russia to the EU (perhaps under the guise of “American” supplies). China could approve the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project on terms favorable to Moscow, invest in Russia’s real economy, and finance important transportation projects. Finally, China could supply the Russian Armed Forces with high-tech weapons and military equipment.

For now, closer ties between Russia and China seem much more likely. The Americans are unwilling to make serious concessions. They are either unwilling or unable to rein in Europe and Ukraine, which speaks to America’s weakness. History is very ironic. Washington’s global power may sink into oblivion because the White House failed to force its allies to hand over Kramatorsk and Slavyansk in Donbass to Russia in time. It’s a ridiculous price to pay for global leadership, which was won with the blood, sweat, and tears of millions of brave and hardworking Americans over 80 years.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• Trump’s Diplomatic Shake-Up Gives China Advantage In Asia-Pacific
• NATO’s New Ally? Argentina And UK Secret Military Ties To Counter China In The South Atlantic
• Washington Exploiting Dalai Lama’s Succession: Religion Meets Geopolitics In India-China Relations

Support SouthFront