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Written by Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts
While Moscow is making major investments in defense, Ukraine has stalled (in the battlefield) and so is the American aid package, writes Foreign Policy reporter Amy Mackinnon. “Ukraine will lose – on our present trajectory”, says Niall Ferguson, a senior fellow of the Centre for European Studies, Harvard, interviewed by John Anderson, former Deputy Prime Minister of Australia.
According to Ferguson, thus far the US-led West has given Kyiv enough weapons “not to lose, but not enough to win”. In addition, the United States’ “interest” is “clearly waning, particularly “among Republican voters and Republican politicians”, to the point that American aid to the Eastern European country “could be cut off if Donald Trump is reelected president in November 2024”. In this scenario, he says, it is hard to see how Ukraine could possibly win. Furthermore, he claims, the Ukrainians themselves admit that they have achieved a “stalemate” now, and in terms of resources it is “David versus Goliath,” with the latter being, more and more, “the likely favorite.” If Russia is, “to put it very, very modestly”, able to “retain control” of those parts of Ukraine it already does, that will be “the first big defeat of Cold War II, for the West.” Considering all the Western pro-Zelensky propaganda, all the “speeches”, “support” and “pledges” made, if Ukraine “loses”, the West’s credibility will be greatly undermined, Fergunson convincingly reasons.
Meanwhile, should an “all-out multifront assault on Israel” arise, in the Middle East, and the US fails to take meaningful action, then the expert argues, somewhat less convincingly, it would be “surprising” if Xi Jinping “didn’t take the opportunity to add Taiwan to the strategic mix” – and, in the scenario of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, it would be “rather difficult to send another major naval expedition across the Pacific” because of the risk of US-China “hostilities” in this case, which then would mean a “much larger war than anything we’ve seen so far.” What Ferguson fails to acknowledge is that tensions with Taiwan arose after a series of American provocations, and that the current crisis in the Levant and the Red Sea is largely the result of the Western resolve to keep aiding and funding its Israeli ally even in face of the latter’s disastrous and globally condemned ethnic cleansing campaign in Palestine.
Back to the Ukrainian conflict’s prospects, Mark Episkopos, Eurasia Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, writes that, at this point, there is “no magic weapon left”, and that Kyiv’s “backers” (on “both sides of the Atlantic”) have “no realistic theory of victory” accounting for “the dire conditions” faced by Ukraine and thus fail to offer “a sustainable framework for war termination on the best possible terms for Kyiv and the West.” In the same spirit, James Stavridis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe sees no future for Ukraine other than a land-for-peace deal.
Back to the aforementioned Ferguson’s interview, the Scottish–American historian concludes, from an Anglo-Western perspective, that “this is a very dangerous moment in world history”, and “we’ve stumbled into it, partly by forgetting the lessons of Cold War I”, namely that one must have “credible deterrence.” Such deterrence, he laments, has been lost. As I’ve written, the West has no such deterrence against Iran in the Middle East either.
As is often the case, notwithstanding any criticism one may have of the Russian president and of his choices pertaining to Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine, there is something missing in the conversation about the crisis, namely any mention of the Western role in at least partly bringing it about by NATO expansion or, for that matter, any mention of the Western white-washing and support for far-right paramilitary nationalism in Ukraine – which is often neo-Fascist – since the Maidan Revolution, and the role this factor played in the Donbass war (going on since 2014); not to mention the issue of the civil rights of ethnic Russians, Russian-speaking and pro-Russian people in Ukraine since the aforementioned Maidan.
In any case, it is not just into Eastern Europe that Washington has “stumbled”. It is also “stuck”, as I wrote, in the Middle East, where it acts as an undecided declining superpower, “torn”, as it is, according to a recent The Economist’s piece, “between leaving and staying and cannot decide what to do with the forces it still has in the region.”
In September last year, Former US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates described his country as a “divided” and “dysfunctional superpower”, unable to deter both China and Russia. “Torn”, “stuck”, “divided” – undecidedness could really be a key word with regards to the existential crisis haunting American exceptionalism: Washington seems unable to decide, for example, as Jerry Hendrix (formerly an adviser to Pentagon senior officials) puts it, whether it wishes to maintain its declining naval hegemony, as a sea power, in Mackinder’s terms, or to keep engaging in land wars in Eurasia in its struggle for the “Heartland”. It cannot decide whether to pivot away from the Middle East towards the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR) or to “stay” in the Middle East region. It seems to want it both ways always, as materialized in the different versions of the “dual containment” formula – now applied to both Beijing and Moscow simultaneously.
Thus, going beyond the issue of Ukraine, it is about time to acknowledge that the declining American superpower is currently overburdened and overstretched, in Stephen Wertheim’s words; that its policy of “dual containment” makes the world a far less stable place; and that Washington therefore must exercise restraint.
does anybody still believe in ukrainian victory?
not even the paid ukro fan boy trolls in this comment section truly do. it’s all for the couple of cents per comment.
the morons that used to be called journalists in the us do.
no they don’t, they just spin it to keep public support up to send more money to that little beggar
i believe that global elites like their profits from “aid” to ukraine. the ukraine oligarchs like their bribes. smugglers like their profits from smuggling weapons to lebanon, gaza, mexico. and eu politicians like the distraction of ukraine and warmongering against russia instead of clearing the mess they made with green policy and destroying of the jobs in the west. so many people can profit from bloodshed in ukraine even they dont believe in ukraine victory anymore.
the west is losing credibility on all fronts. the harvard fellow ferguson is correct about that. ukraine is just another nail in the western coffin.
afghanistan, ukraine… did not worked so well. so let’s start against iran or china over taiwan. or both of them at the same time ? or even better start a war against russia and china directly ? with nukes ? that’s how they are thinking…
u.s/nato need constant wars to prop up the dollar scam system. but they are old dogs with no new tricks and they are getting cornered, so full blown ww3 is all they can think of.
yes but afganistan managed to kick out the british, the sowjets and the americans – and all this in just one century !!! that’s really impressive !! as they did all that without even possesing an own weapon industry !! so from this experience alone every true analyst needs to admit that even if the enmy has maximum superior amounts of material or money, that not necessary means that he will win the war !
an extra dose of copium for the mother of all idiots.
another dumb amerikunt hillbilly—-soviets entirely defeated muhajadin—withdrew all troops—no city could be occupied by the amereikunt funded terrorists until 3 years later when yeltsin eded financial support
when did “the west” ever have credibility with anyone but themselves? when they saved constantinople? how about the crusades? opium wars? taiping rebellion? subjugation of mexico? rape of the congo? nuclear assault on japan? mass murder in indochina, along with poisoning the land with unexploded ordinance and defoliants? unrestrained onslaught against the living standards of the people of the soviet union after 1991?
the “credibility” they created in the minds of countless people all over the world through hollywood and media sponsored by western donors. all of this is crumbling. no u.s dollar no propaganda.
part 1: exactly! those western donors! once the dollars dry up the truth will shine. for example, there is this japanese girl who has lived in moscow for about a decade, she used to work in the japanese media. well, she came to japan to visit family and met with an acquaintance of hers who is a russian vlogger in japan for over a decade, sergey kuvaev.
part 2: she told him an interesting story on camera about how she ran into her old boss or coworker from the japanese media company she used to work for and told him about her living in moscow so he asked her to get him some footage of russian supermarkets and how stocked they are. well she emailed him the footage when she got back but then got another email back.
part 3: he basically rejected the footage said it was too positive about russia, won’t make them any money and will get them in trouble with their u.s donors who keep their media company afloat. surprise surprise.
not surprising about japans media it’s defo a western colony. and what does it get in return? depression, declining population, declining economy declining morale, lack of normal human relationships. that’s what you get when you associate with the rotten west.
eh, they’re all whores
true, but to me both are stupid. christian ukrainians fighting for the jew zelensky, same as christian russians fighting for the jew putin (born by miss shalomova). btw. look here to see the prove of what the jews themselves admit, see: https://www.bitchute.com/video/e5qsvqcm41kq/
his mother is an orthodox christian woman who baptized putin at 1 months old against the wishes of his communist father who ironically was also baptized at birth in a small village in the tver region. so you nazis can try to discredit putin all you want but it won’t make any difference. especially after the putin interview seen by millions upon millions of english speakers. your lies are breaking down.
i’ve noticed a trend since the putin interviews, the agenda of the trolls in the southfront comment section has now shifted to talking about how putin is with the western cabal instead of how “great” ukraine is.
you’re jew obsessed, fellow. explains your siding with this new crop of ukrops in temporary power.
dumb poko molo nazi oklahoma hillbilly retired janitor tiresome
i believe in nazis!
i believe in the tooth fairy…nazis…nah!
well i guess those who bought the farmland in donbas believed in it. and they are still pushing the western governments to throw money and ammo at ukraine hoping it works out. if you look at what happened before the war you will realise that this could have went differently if the revolutions in belarus and kazakhstan would have been successfull and if iran would have not sold them the drone tech the russian military had neglected to develop.
“if this and this and a million others things would have happened then ukraine would definitely be winning now”. lmao if if if if if if if if if if if to the millionth power.
well in other conflicts the plans of the west worked out so well that they got to used to them and calculated that it would work out here as well. their track record is not that bad. yugoslavia, iraq, lybia, armenian karabakh. all taken without any major problems for the west. and even those that they did not manage to take like syria, georgia and afghanistan did not have any dire consequenzes for the usa.
the dire circumstances for the u.s. is that it has been losing its (fake) credibility with the cowardly night time afghan pull out, its inability to topple assad its inability to take south ossetia, abkhazia and so forth. it doesn’t have the reputation it once did.
i doo. we stand with ukras untkll end of rustica. ukra will not loose and if they loose we will kollektivley jump from cliffs fx of souathern danmark.
sounds reasonable, sounds danish.
“jump from cliffs”…that’s what lemings do!
ukraine will get more monies from usa, more tens of thousands of the little guys will die, while the leaders will decide their fates.
ferguson is a fully fledged unionist scot. he believes that scotland and her resources should be controlled by england. he wrote about his fellow scots suffering a disportionate number of casualties in ww1 second only to serbia. i wouldn’t trust his opinion. he was one of the eminent british intellectuals who were opposed to scotland seceding in 2014 at a time when the then prime minister, now foreign secretary, david cameron was courting putin to oppose scottish independence.
the bbc still carry the article online from 2014 if you think i have made it up.
nobody, let me repeat this once again as sf does not allow capitals: ‘nobody’ believes in ukra victory anymore, not even biden
the money they pump into the ukro nazis is quite clearly a money laundering scheme…why else would the us and its satanic western alies do so when they all know the regime in kiev is done for.
does anybody still believe in a ukrainian victory? to answer that question…you still see the odd shittard on yt making that fu^^ing comment “slava ukraini”…these people are shittards and believe the titanic will stay affloat and make it to new york even with a 60 meter tear below the water line…yeh shittards still believe.
the number of “endsieg” the russians are falling youtube “analysts” is fascinating. just like the fact that some that pretended to be less biased in the past like the french le dessous des cartes/ in german mit offenen karten or the caspian report who all transitioned from analysing the situation to anlalysing the situation why the “insert enemy of the west” is losing.
we are idiots
it was never even a realistic scenario to begin with. the only way ukraine can get a victory is when nato tries to interfere. but they won’t, they need puppets and proxies to fight for them, otherwise everyone can see them for the paper tiger they really are
nato can’t win against russia at all even if it’s full scale. ww3 would quickly ensue. only if they are dumb and suicidal. as colonel douglas macgregor said, “nato is not prepared for a direct war with russia, nowhere near.”