The situation of the Ukrainian army in Avdiivka is getting worse every day. Russian troops have already approached the strategically important fortified areas of the Ukrainian grouping in the city. In the nearest future, the Ukrainian grouping in Avdiivka may be cut into two parts. In the north, Ukrainian soldiers are hiding from Russian heavy bombs in the basements of the Coke and Chemical plant. In the southern part of the city, Ukrainian units will be forced to fight the advancing Russian units on the streets. Their main fortress there is the 9th microdistrict, called Khimik, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are equipping firing positions in high-raised buildings.
Over the past 24 hours, Russian assault groups operating, with the confident support of artillery and armored vehicles deployed in the city, have managed to significantly expand their zone of control, advancing from the northern part of the city.
Footage from the Coke and Chemical Plant:
At the southern shore of the Blue Lakes, which is a flooded sand quarry, Russian forces took control of several city districts. The AFU retain control over the heights on the eastern shore of the lake, which allows them to maintain fire control over the northeastern part of the city, but they still cannot stop the Russian advance.
Ukrainian units will have to withdraw to the southwestern outskirts of Avdiivka, otherwise thousands of their servicemen will be surrounded due to the Russian assault in the south-east of the city.
According to the latest reports from the front, the Russian military gained a foothold in the building of the Stroidetal plant and launched attacks on Ukrainian positions in the area of the Brevno restaurant. This restaurant is an important symbolic position, because control over it means control of the main and last paved road for the supply of reinforcements to the Ukrainian grouping in Avdiivka. Given the rapid pace of Russian advance in the city, Ukrainian soldiers will soon lose control of this strategically important area.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian forces:
The Russian military is attacking on a wide front. Having taken control of a large part of the railway, they are approaching Industrialny Avenue. The fighting reached the Avdiivka auto repair shop, where the AFU equipped another fortified stronghold.
In the central part of the city, the Russians reportedly reached the Avdiivka railway station.
The Russian military also had some success in the southern part of the city, where they broke through the railway tracks and partially took control of the village of Vinogradniki-2. This advance significantly worsened the positions of the AFU in the Zenit fortified area, where the former air defense base is located.
The Ukrainian command is forced to change supply routes and is already trying to transfer reserves across the fields to the southeast of the city. Given the Ukrainian control over the settlements in the area, the reduced flow of goods remains under Russian fire.
Ukrainian reserves are waiting on the outskirts of Avdiivka:
The Ukrainian command bravely declared that it will continue to fight for all positions in the city, despite the threat of the upcoming encirclement. By Zelensky’s order, the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, is transferring reserves to Avdiivka, weakening positions in other directions.
According to US and Ukrainian media reports, Syrsky transferred one of the most combat–ready and motivated units from the southern front to Avdeevka. This unit is the 3rd assault brigade, consisting of the remnants of the neo-Nazi Azov battalion, which was defeated in Mariupol in 2022. In the battle for Avdiivka, they will face the Russian units, largely consisting of fighters from the Donetsk militia, who have have an old bone to pick with the Kiev’s Nazis.
At the moment, there have been no significant Ukrainian counterattacks in an attempt to unblock the grouping in the city. It is expected that the transferred reserves will strengthen Ukrainian positions near the Brevno restaurant in order to prevent the Russians from cutting the road.
The AFU is also accumulating forces west of Avdiivka. Another possible direction of their flank counterattack lays from Novokalinovo towards Kamenka, where the AFU may attempt to cut the Russian grouping from the north.
However, Ukrainian manoeuvres in the Avdiivka region are closely monitored by the Russian Aerospace Forces, which bomb Ukrainian positions not only in Avdiivka, but also on its outskirts, preventing the AFU from accumulating a hammerhead.
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