Illustrative image.
Russia is preparing to significantly expand production of carbon fiber used in its Geran one-way attack drones, potentially allowing the country to add about 28,000 airframes to its annual output, according to an investigation by Politico based on alleged leaked Russian corporate and construction documents.
The expansion centers on the Alabuga-Volokno factory in Russia’s Tatarstan region, operated by Rosatom’s advanced materials division, UMATEX.
The alleged documents obtained by POLITICO show plans for a new production line capable of producing up to 500 tons of aerospace-grade carbon fiber a year by 2029.
Weapons expert David Albright, who independently examined the alleged plans and satellite imagery of the site, estimated that the additional carbon fiber could support production of about 28,000 Geran-type drone airframes annually. That would represent a roughly 78% increase over Ukraine’s estimate that Russia can currently produce more than 36,000 Geran attack drones a year.
Russia’s Geran-2 drones are based on Iran’s Shahed-136 design and have become a major component of Moscow’s long-range strike campaign against Ukraine. Their relatively low cost allows Russia to launch large numbers of drones in attacks intended to overwhelm air defenses.
The documents reviewed by POLITICO indicate that Russia approved the expansion in May. Satellite imagery from May and July showed land beside the existing Alabuga-Volokno plant being cleared for construction, while Albright said imagery he obtained from August showed preparations for the foundations of the new facility.
The expansion is also intended to strengthen Russia’s domestic supply chain. Alabuga-Volokno’s plans call for a new facility producing polyacrylonitrile, or PAN, a precursor used to manufacture high-grade carbon fiber.
Carbon fiber is used to reinforce the drones’ wings and internal structures while keeping their weight low. Expanding domestic production would therefore reduce Moscow’s dependence on imported materials.
The alleged expansion fits into a much larger Russian effort to increase domestic drone production. A Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis cited by POLITICO said Russia aims to manufacture about 130,000 unmanned aircraft under its national program by 2030, with a target of 350,000 by 2035.
The Alabuga expansion would therefore address both the immediate demand for Geran one-way attack drones and a broader Russian effort to reduce dependence on foreign components. POLITICO reported that Russian plans also call for the development of additional domestic carbon-fiber capacity to serve the aviation and defense industries.
The special military operation in Ukraine has turned Russia in just four years into one of the world’s largest drone powers, if not the largest.
The recent increase in Russian drone production — which was not limited to pusher-propeller models like the Geran-2 but also included newer jet-powered models like the Geran-4 and Geran-5 — has caused a state of panic throughout the West, especially in Europe.
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