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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
As Israel is trying to find the perfect timing to launch its ground operation in Gaza, all regional backers of Hamas are looking for ways to support it militarily. Iran is perhaps the most prominent ally of the Gaza-based group and is the only country that has the capacity to support it directly. However, there’s no evidence that Tehran ordered the surprise attack on October 7 or that it even intends to strike Israel with its long-range ballistic missiles. The threat and capability certainly exist and it could surely be contemplating such a possibility, but wise political leadership in both Iran and Israel would seek ways to avoid such a scenario. And yet, there’s the United States and its unrelenting drive to make sure war is inevitable.
First and foremost, Washington DC’s accusations against Tehran, despite no evidence to support them, are nearly a done deal for the mainstream propaganda machine that keeps parroting them as some sort of an axiom. This was then used to justify a massive US naval deployment of two carrier strike groups (CSGs) and one amphibious assault task force, which operate approximately 180 aircraft altogether. Such a massive amount of airpower is completely unnecessary to deal with Hamas, a guerrilla-like organization that has no air force, no long-range missiles, no viable long-range, high-altitude air defense systems, etc. However, it is enough to launch an immediate attack on Lebanon, Syria or any other country in the region that the US finds “non-compliant”.
Expectedly, this forced Russia to respond, as it operates strategically important military installations in the possible target countries, specifically Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate deployment of superfast, high-flying MiG-31K/I attack jets armed with “Kinzhal” air-launched hypersonic missiles, specifically designed to destroy strategic naval assets such as supercarriers and other large surface combatants. However, while this means Washington DC might leave Syria alone (specifically within the scope of its current deployment in support of Israel), the determination to get Iran involved stays. Namely, on October 21, the Pentagon announced that it had deployed new high and medium-altitude SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems to the Middle East.
According to the Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin, the US military had “activated the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, as well as additional ‘Patriot’ battalions” in several unspecified areas in the Middle East, all in order to “increase the protection of US forces”. Austin claims that he had “detailed discussions” with President Biden on the matter. In addition to the aforementioned air defense measures, he also redirected the CSG led by the USS “Dwight D. Eisenhower” supercarrier to the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (meaning that it was effectively ordered redeployment to the Persian Gulf). The USS “Gerald R. Ford” and the rest of its CSG will continue operating in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Austin also stated that “[he] will continue to assess [US] force posture requirements in the region and consider deploying additional capabilities as necessary”. In fact, this has already been done, as the Pentagon also deployed other assets such as the A-10 “Thunderbolt II” attack jets, F-15E “Strike Eagle” strike fighters, as well as the B-1B “Lancer” long-range bombers. The latter were sent from their home base in Texas on October 12 and forward deployed to RAF (Royal Air Force) Fairford airbase in the United Kingdom. From there, “Lancers” could launch strikes against targets across the Middle East and elsewhere. None of these are necessary to counter Hamas, as US President Joe Biden himself stated that Israel can handle Hamas on its own. Obviously, the target in this case is Iran.
This is particularly true when it comes to air defenses. Israel operates SAM and ABM (anti-ballistic missile) systems that are capable of intercepting tactical missiles and rockets. The most prominent of these is the “Iron Dome” that’s routinely used to intercept rockets fired by Hamas. However, the Gaza-based militant group operates no weapons that would require the deployment of the much-touted “Patriot” and even less so when it comes to THAAD. In fact, despite its massive arsenal of missiles and rockets, even the Lebanon-based Hezbollah doesn’t operate weapons that would require the use of the aforementioned air defense/ABM systems. However, Iran does and the belligerent thalassocracy seems to be determined to get Tehran involved, one way or the other.
Iran operates medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) such as the “Khorramshahr”, “Shahab-3”, “Fajr-3”, “Sejjil 1/2” and other types based and/or derived from them, as well as the “Shahab-5” and “Sejjil 3” intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). The former have varying ranges of up to 3000 km, while the latter can go over 4000. It’s safe to say that virtually all of these are based on (or at the very least inspired by) North Korean designs, which, in turn, were derived from Soviet-era missiles. In addition, Tehran also recently unveiled what it claims is its first hypersonic missile, the “Fattah”. Aside from Iranian claims that it’s maneuverable and that its speed and range are (up to) Mach 15 and 1400 km, respectively, not much is known about the missile. “Fattah” was officially unveiled in early June.
With the exception of hypersonic and similar maneuverable missiles, the “Patriot” and THAAD were designed specifically to intercept traditional ballistic missiles such as the ones operated by Iran. Even if its claims about “Fattah” are true, Tehran probably still doesn’t have enough of them to make a difference. And while Iran also doesn’t field weapons such as the Russian “Iskander” or its larger North Korean derivative KN-23 (known for their irregular trajectories and maneuverability that make them nearly impervious to interception by the aforementioned US systems), it still possesses a massive arsenal that would make even the deployment of long-range American SAM and ABM systems insufficient to defend against. However, that seems acceptable to the perpetually avaricious US Military Industrial Complex.
iran has long prepared for a war with the us. the us on the other hand, has never put plans to attack iran into action bc it knows it cannot win. a few thaads and patriots are a desperate attempt to contain iran. they are already at war.
hamas allies aren‘t trying to get help from iran, they‘ve gotten it for a long time and will continue to do so.
lastly, „israel is looking for a perfect time to…“ sounds like a bad commercial. a perfect time to grab a piece of iron that is glowing hot, or indeed to get slaughtered? no there is no good time for that let alone a perfect one. israel is so unready and afraid of a 2-front war… they‘re simply incapable of regaining the iniatitive.
sure dawarish
lol halt die fresse saudummes hurenkind. only some 1000-1500 hamas fighters with b class armament and equipment cause serious chaos and damage to south israel. imagine what would happen if hisbollah steps in, 10 time stronger than hamas, or iran, 10 times stronger than hisbollah. but lets lean back and watch the big show comming soon.
the us just doesn’t seem to be able to learn from its mistakes. iran is far from isolated an israel is really not making any friends at the moment.
iran has a few top secret military and strategic agreements with russia, china and north corea, so in case of an attack against iran this could cause a ww3 szenario. so again the ziotransatlantic hurenkinder playing with fire and may set up the whole world on fire, again.