Illustrative image. (Ukrainian Air Force)
Ukraine could see most of its F-16 fighter fleet unavailable for combat by the end of the year because of lengthy maintenance delays in Belgium, the Wall Street Journal reported on September 29.
More than half of Ukraine’s F-16s are currently in what a Western source described to the WSJ as “maintenance limbo.” At the current pace of operations and repairs, the source said, Ukraine could exhaust the remainder of its available F-16s by the end of the year.
The maintenance bottleneck is linked in part to the intensive use of the fighters. After about 300 flight hours, F-16s require a detailed phase inspection covering their engines, avionics, hydraulic systems, fuel lines and other components. Such inspections generally take two to six weeks in the United States, but can take as long as 40 weeks in Belgium, according to retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who was cited by the report.
Ukraine relies heavily on Western facilities and contractors to keep the fighters operational. The U.S. has awarded Belgian company Sabena Aerospace Engineering a contract worth more than $230 million for maintenance of Ukraine’s F-16s, with subcontractors performing some of the work.
The long turnaround times are emerging as Russia increases its use of jet-powered drones. The WSJ reported that Russia has deployed about 2,000 such drones over Ukraine in September, compared with about 350 in June.
These drones are significantly faster than earlier generations of Geran-type systems, increasing the pressure on Ukraine’s fighter fleet and other air defense systems.
That makes the maintenance problem more consequential because F-16s have become an important part of Ukraine’s response to Russian drone attacks.
Ukraine is also trying to increase the number of fighters available to its forces. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on September 29 that Belgium would transfer three additional F-16s to Ukraine by the end of the year and that Kyiv was seeking to accelerate the deliveries. He also said Ukraine had received urgent deliveries of F-16 ammunition from Belgium, Spain and other allies.
Separate reports have also pointed to shortages of the weapons carried by the F-16s. Ukrainian F-16 commanders have reported shortages of AIM-120 and AIM-9 air-to-air missiles, forcing pilots in some cases to rely on the fighters’ internal 20 mm cannons against Russian drones.
The shortages were reported in early September and were described by Ukrainian officers as affecting the number of missiles that could be used during combat missions.
Ukraine is now seeking additional ammunition for the F-16s as well. Bloomberg reported on September 30 that Kyiv was seeking to purchase tens of thousands of 20 mm rounds for the fighters, with the ammunition intended in part for use against Russian jet-powered drones.
The combination of maintenance delays, limited spare parts and servicing capacity, and growing demand for F-16s is therefore putting pressure on both the size and availability of Ukraine’s fighter fleet.
Even with additional F-16s expected from Belgium, the number of fighters Kyiv can actually keep in service will depend on whether its Western backers can significantly reduce maintenance turnaround times and maintain supplies of the ammunition and weapons required for combat operations.
All in all, the WSJ’s latest report shed light on yet another problem facing Ukrainian forces, with no clear solution in sight. One thing is becoming increasingly clear: Western support for Kyiv is dwindling.
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i’m pretty sure ukraine is going to lose most of its conscripts due to maintenance delays like food, water, rest, training, arms, ammunition… you know, the usual stuff that supports an army.
it’s almost as if someone told them ‘we don’t care, it’s to the last ukrainian you go.’