Featured image: Ahead of the formal talks, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday in Geneva and told him Washington “would welcome genuine progress through diplomacy.” (Russian Mission in Geneva)
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Written by Scott Ritter. Originally published on Global Research.
Wendy Sherman thinks her aim in talks with Russian officials starting Monday is to lecture them on the cost of hubris. Instead she’s set to lead the U.S., NATO, and Europe down a path of ruin, warns Scott Ritter.
If ever a critical diplomatic negotiation was doomed to fail from the start, the discussions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine and Russian security guarantees is it.
The two sides can’t even agree on an agenda.
From the Russian perspective, the situation is clear: “The Russian side came here [to Geneva] with a clear position that contains a number of elements that, to my mind, are understandable and have been so clearly formulated—including at a high level—that deviating from our approaches simply is not possible,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the press after a pre-meeting dinner on Sunday hosted by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who is leading the U.S. delegation.
Ryabkov was referring Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands to U.S. President Joe Biden in early December regarding Russian security guarantees, which were then laid out by Moscow in detail in the form of two draft treaties, one a Russian-U.S. security treaty, the other a security agreement between Russia and NATO.
The latter would bar Ukraine from joining NATO and rule out any eastward expansion by the trans-Atlantic military alliance. At the time, Ryabkov tersely noted that the U.S. should immediately begin to address the proposed drafts with an eye to finalizing something when the two sides meet. Now, with the meeting beginning on Monday, it doesn’t appear as if the U.S. has done any such thing.
“[T]he talks are going to be difficult,” Ryabkov told reporters after the dinner meeting. “They cannot be easy. They will be business-like. I think we won’t waste our time tomorrow.” When asked if Russia was ready to compromise, Ryabkov tersely responded, “The Americans should get ready to reach a compromise.”
All the U.S. has been willing to do, it seems, is to remind Russia of so-called “serious consequences” should Russia invade Ukraine, something the U.S. and NATO fear is imminent, given the scope and scale of recent Russian military exercises in the region involving tens of thousands of troops. This threat was made by Biden to Putin on several occasions, including a phone call initiated by Putin last week to help frame the upcoming talks.
Yet on the eve of the Ryabkov-Sherman meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken simply reiterated these threats, declaring that Russia would face “massive consequences” if it invaded Ukraine.
“It’s clear that we’ve offered him two paths forward,” Blinken said, speaking of Putin. “One is through diplomacy and dialogue; the other is through deterrence and massive consequences for Russia if it renews its aggression against Ukraine. And we’re about to test the proposition of which path President Putin wants to take this week.”
Lessons of History
Moscow, June 23, 1941: Soviet soldiers on their way to the front. The sign reads: “Our cause is just. The enemy will be crushed. The victory will be ours! ” (Anatoliy Garanin .License: CC BY SA 3.0.)
It is as if both Biden and Blinken are deaf, dumb, and blind when it comes to reading Russia.
Ryabkov has alluded to a fact already made clear by the Russians—there will be no compromise when it comes to Russia’s legitimate national security interests. And if the U.S. cannot understand how the accumulation of military power encompassed in a military alliance which views Russia as a singular, existential threat to its members’ security is seen by Russia as threatening, then there is no comprehension of how the events of June 22, 1941 have shaped the present -day Russian psyche, why Russia will never again allow such a situation to occur, and why the talks are doomed before they even begin.
As for the American threats, Russia has given its response—any effort to sanction Russia would result, as Putin told Biden last month, in a “complete rupture of relations” between Russia and those countries attempting sanctions. One need not be a student of history to comprehend that the next logical step following a “complete rupture of relations” between two parties that are at loggerheads over matters pertaining to existential threats to the national security of one or both is not the peaceful resumption of relations, but war.
There is no mealy-mouthed posturing by Foggy Bottom peacocks taking place in Moscow, but rather a cold, hard, statement of fact—ignore Russia’s demands at you own peril. The U.S., it seems, believes that the worst-case scenario is one where Russia invades Ukraine, only to wilt under the sustained pressure of economic sanctions and military threats.
Russia’s worse-case scenario is one where it engages in armed conflict with NATO.
Generally speaking, the side that is most prepared for the reality of armed conflict will prevail.
Russia has been preparing for this possibility for more than a year. It has repeatedly shown a capability to rapidly mobilize 100,000-plus combat-ready forces in short order. NATO has shown an ability to mobilize 30,000 after six-to-nine-months of extensive preparations.
The Shape of War
What would a conflict between Russia and NATO look like? In short, not like anything NATO has prepared for. Time is the friend of NATO in any such conflict—time to let sanctions weaken the Russian economy, and time to allow NATO to build up sufficient military power to be able to match Russia’s conventional military strength.
Russia knows this, and as such, any Russian move will be designed to be both swift and decisive.
First and foremost, if it comes to it, when Russia decides to move on Ukraine, it will do so with a plan of action that has been well-thought out and which sufficient resources have been allocated for its successful completion. Russia will not get involved in a military misadventure in Ukraine that has the potential of dragging on and on, like the U.S. experience in Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia has studied an earlier U.S. military campaign—Operation Desert Storm, of Gulf War I—and has taken to heart the lessons of that conflict.
One does not need to occupy the territory of a foe in order to destroy it. A strategic air campaign designed to nullify specific aspects of a nations’ capability, whether it be economic, political, military, or all the above, coupled with a focused ground campaign designed to destroy an enemy’s army as opposed to occupy its territory, is the likely course of action.
Given the overwhelming supremacy Russia has both in terms of the ability to project air power backed by precision missile attacks, a strategic air campaign against Ukraine would accomplish in days what the U.S. took more than a month to do against Iraq in 1991.
On the ground, the destruction of Ukraine’s Army is all but guaranteed. Simply put, the Ukrainian military is neither equipped nor trained to engage in large-scale ground combat. It would be destroyed piecemeal, and the Russians would more than likely spend more time processing Ukrainian prisoners of war than killing Ukrainian defenders.
For any Russian military campaign against Ukraine to be effective in a larger conflict with NATO, however, two things must occur—Ukraine must cease to exist as a modern nation state, and the defeat of the Ukrainian military must be massively one-sided and quick. If Russia is able to accomplish these two objectives, then it is well positioned to move on to the next phase of its overall strategic posturing vis-à-vis NATO—intimidation.
While the U.S., NATO, the EU, and the G7 have all promised “unprecedented sanctions,” sanctions only matter if the other side cares. Russia, by rupturing relations with the West, no longer would care about sanctions. Moreover, it is a simple acknowledgement of reality that Russia can survive being blocked from SWIFT transactions longer than Europe can survive without Russian energy. Any rupturing of relations between Russia and the West will result in the complete embargoing of Russian gas and oil to European customers.
There is no European Plan B. Europe will suffer, and because Europe is composed of erstwhile democracies, politicians will pay the price. All those politicians who followed the U.S. blindly into a confrontation with Russia will now have to answer to their respective constituents why they committed economic suicide on behalf of a Nazi-worshipping, thoroughly corrupt nation (Ukraine) which has nothing in common with the rest of Europe. It will be a short conversation.
NATO’s Fix
If the U.S. tries to build up NATO forces on Russia’s western frontiers in the aftermath of any Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia will then present Europe with a fait accompli in the form of what would now be known as the “Ukrainian model.” In short, Russia will guarantee that the Ukrainian treatment will be applied to the Baltics, Poland, and even Finland, should it be foolish enough to pursue NATO membership.
Russia won’t wait until the U.S. has had time to accumulate sufficient military power, either. Russia will simply destroy the offending party through the combination of an air campaign designed to degrade the economic function of the targeted nation, and a ground campaign designed to annihilate the ability to wage war. Russia does not need to occupy the territory of NATO for any lengthy period—just enough to destroy whatever military power has been accumulated by NATO near its borders.
And—here’s the kicker—short of employing nuclear weapons, there’s nothing NATO can do to prevent this outcome. Militarily, NATO is but a shadow of its former self. The once great armies of Europe have had to cannibalize their combat formations to assemble battalion-sized “combat groups” in the Baltics and Poland. Russia, on the other hand, has reconstituted two army-size formations—the 1stGuards Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army—from the Cold War-era which specialize in deep offensive military action.
Even Vegas wouldn’t offer odds on this one.
Sherman will face off against Ryabkov in Geneva, with the fate of Europe in her hands. The sad thing is, she doesn’t see it that way. Thanks to Biden, Blinken and the host of Russophobes who populate the U.S. national security state today, Sherman thinks she is there to simply communicate the consequences of diplomatic failure to Russia. To threaten. With mere words.
What Sherman, Biden, Blinken, and the others have yet to comprehend is that Russia has already weighed the consequences and is apparently willing to accept them. And respond. With action.
One wonders if Sherman, Biden, Blinken, and the others have thought this through. Odds are, they have not, and the consequences for Europe will be dire.
Scott Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD.
The Communists who used to control Russia now dictate the US. Their Goal is vengeance against the Russian People for daring to throw the murdering bastards out of power. They will continue their effort of lies and disinformation against Russia until they are ready to use military means against them. God Bless Russia for throwing out the murdering communist scum thirty years ago and God give them Strength and Courage because communists never stop their evil unless force is used against them. To Gehenna with the Communists and their murdering rapist agenda. They lie so thoroughly because they quietly follow the father of lies who is the enemy of Jesus the Christ.
Ironically, the 90’s were a time of the US plundering Russia and the privations that the Russian populace were forced to endure. The life expectancy for the Russian general population in the 90’s dropped significantly during the period of US/UK/Israeli looting of Russian assets.
President Putin has been the saviour of Russia. This was only possible due to the President surrounding himself with talented staff who love Russia more than US dollars.
Ukraine collapse in few hours…in the moment that Russian troops takes the Poland/ Ukraine border , impose a non fly zone, cut gas&petrol and block Ukraine ports…..
A few hours? I’m thinking minutes.
RUSSIA SHOULD NUKE THE NAZI UKRAINE GOVT INTO ASH AND TAKE THEIR FOREX AND GOLD. THERE IS NOTHING ELSE VALUABLE IN UKRAINE
One word reply. Idiot. Simple.
To late for the gold, Biden took ik to the us the day he landed whit 300 blackwater murdrers and install a puppet on the trone. Nulland said that it costs the us 5 milion dollars to take the country.
Too late. The USA already stole the gold in 2014 on the night of the coup.
The US is finding it difficult get someone to fight Russia on their behalf, the secret to benefiting from war is to supply the winner or loser and pick up the pieces when its all over. Western Europe is wanting to pick up the pieces when US and Russian conflict is done.
Europe
Western Europe will burn the same. The US wants to be the one to pick cherries after the war by others in their name.
Can’t see am invasion starting before an air campaign (perhaps a fortnights worth) is mounted, when Ukrainian arms depots, air defences and radars start getting zapped and then it really is time for pro-Nato Ukraine to start settling up their accounts and perhaps even thinking of a Czechoslovakia solution.
I believe the Ukrainian people, in case the the rockets come from the east, will deal with national nazi traitors by them selves. And it will be a second bloodbath…
Good. As long as these two keep themselves tied up in diplomatic knots, China can continue her peaceful rise …
yes, let the white people destroy each other to make space for the chinese.. sounds perfect!
Oh lord trumptard. I’m sure Russia being a multi confessional state does not adhere to your white worries you Anglo Saxon shill. They know the fork tongue you posses.
I think they (the US chicken hawks) understand that reality, but you know that they like doing grandstanding to their uninformed population, otherwise you would have seen chicken hawks like Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, Rafael Cruz farting off their mouth about Russia/Putin.
There is no way to spin a Ukraine invasion other than blackening the history of Russia. But if say the Donbass, Crimea regions were to “do it themselves” a partial limited kinetic action might be palatable. lol Zelensky is now dangling peace to the donbass region. A more peaceful option would be to work with planting sympathetic people in the Ukrainian govt ultimately supporting a new presidential candidate. Give it more time, the capitalist system will be stretched allocating funds to Ukraine. There will also be dissatisfied portions of the population remaining at the bottom of the economy who could be realizing a return to Russian relations is better.
How about no missile stationed from 10-30 degrees E longitude in the European side and 30-50 degrees E longitude in the Russian side? Also, all US missiles in turkey are removed while Russia can station it at 50-45 N degrees latitude? At the same time, no American bases in the whole area. Drones will be able to counter any ground force anyway. With global warming, it will be easy for Russia to shift cities to the East. Time is on Russian side.
Global warming? Lol… you are obviously completely clueless to what’s going on. It has all to do with the climate and the disaster that will come.
Apostate Europe and Satans servants the US & UK will feel Gods call to repent and turn back to God through Russian wrath.
Nato bloodthirsty zionists must be thinking that Russia is Libya and Iraq where they were bombing swathes of land with ease and impugnity. they are in for a shock of their lives!
China’s wrath you mean.
The problem with the U.S. government is they by into their own hubris. The clowns there think they can go around telling the world what to do. They haven’t been challenged on that score since the end of the Cold War. The complete arrogance and downright dangerous ignorance of the U.S. State Department on matters of diplomacy is astounding. The author of this article is 100% correct. If conflict came, Russia would wipe out Ukraine from the air, and and overrun any Ukraine army positions with lightening efficiency. Russians aren’t stupid. To quote a line from the classic movie Hunt For Red October: “Russians don’t take a dump without a plan, son!” The points made about Europe are spot on. Europe would fold as soon as the energy supplies ceased coming in from Russia.
ผู้นำชาติตะวันตกถูกซาตานครอบงำ
#wef has a greater desire for the world to collapse than it does.
That is highly incorrect.
Afghanistan should have been enough to admit it is over, it failed. Instead the Americans and NATO may have to now lose conventional battles and lose thousands of soldiers before they realise their military superiority is over. Regimes quickly change once people realise they were on the losing side, so sanctions would be lifted anyway, after it. If NATO lost thousands of men to missiles, without Russian troops even entering Europe, they would be humiliated. Their leaders would clearly be at fault for all the carnage and Russia would not even have left its territory, proving the invasion scares false and that missiles are the only consideration.
WHAT WAR WITH RUSSIA WOULD LOOK LIKE?
Lots of noise, and then silence….
Russia isn’t some 3rd world country with outdated military hardware, poor military discipline, zero nukes that the US is used to fighting… and lost against. Russia, stood alone, has broken some of the most powerful militaries in the worlds and the US isn’t as powerful as it likes to think it is. War with Russia will destroy the US.
Amen to that.
Let the discussions proceed. This process has to occur out of site. There will be no war. What will emerge must have a little something for everyone. It’s called compromise.
There are good men on both sides bringing their constituents interests to the table. To quote Kipling in his famous poem, The Female of the Species (you should read it):
“Man, a bear in most relations, worm and savage otherwise, Man propounds negotiations, Man accepts the compromise; Very rarely will he squarely push the logic of a fact To its ultimate conclusion in unmitigated act.
Fear, or foolishness, impels him, ere he lay the wicked low, To concede some form of trial even to his fiercest foe. Mirth obscene diverts his anger; Doubt and Pity oft perplex Him in dealing with an issue – to the scandal of the Sex!”
So don’t be too hard on who ever you claim as your leader when he emerges with a compromise. Half a load of bread is better than a rock, and peace is better than war!
There will be no war. Because Russia doesn’t start one. This NATO bs is still just bs. A ‘Putins palace’ story, bigger in size, but of quality the same western bs. No history to be made from it. Just the usual noise going together with the decline of the west. Russia just needs to sit and wait for to win this. And make the west look stupid once more (1). Smart NATO strategy, as usual. Loosers at work here everywhere. And nobody explains why winter for the russians to come. Why not May or June? 1 – english soldiers in russian uniforms attacking ukranian soldiers? Very good, we think of Herr Hitler having Sender Gleiwitz attacked – and know, it’s fashism at work. If London England wants us all to know – please. And the ukranians will not be thankfull.
A good article full of truthful insights concerning real political actuality, anyhow the political processes which followed the deceptions that caused the breakup of the Soviet Union have ended and been replaced by my recognition as Jesus Christ replacing the stand-in Sid Loder using my mantel to project his naive understandings, in the end he realised he’d been cheated, the jew maggots never had any intention of granting his desires to be a financial tycoon so he took his own life. Anyhow Russia will not attack and is merely statin if the two break away Republics are attacked Russia will declare war on Ukraine.
Russians would do well to remember what happened to Carthage. Cato the Elder ended every speech for nearly four decades with the words “And, Carthage must be destroyed.” Carthage was already a defeated client state of Rome when these speeches were made. The year after Cato’s death Rome found a pretext to destroy Carthage, and proceeded to do so.
NATO and its members have been making speeches for thirty years about the so-called Russian threat. It would not be at all surprising if such a posture eventually leads to an attempt to destroy Russia. Therefore the Kremlin has every reason to be vigilant against further encroachment by NATO.
Spot on. Psychotic U.S. politicians and media repeating “Russia delenda est” more than Cato. They are obsessed with destroying Russia and quite frankly I don’t see any other option for Russia but to destroy them first. Even if they make some deal now, the Empire will continue its dirty war against Russia.
If anyone would attack Russia from Ukraine they have right to nuke them. No one is going to attack Russia. The fact that the European plane is indefensible by conventional warfare for the Russians, is irrelevant. Focus on doing business people, the Russians are our bothers.
Good analysis in many ways, but it misses a very important factor; the moral of NATO troops. Most active soldiers in Europe hate their political leaderships and even more so in Western Europe. There are no true nations (with a feeling of unity and belonging) left and Covid tyranny have been the nail in the coffin for Western leaderships, no matter they know it or not. Start a war and they will find out the fast and hard way.
Western Europe has not been able to win a war since the 1800’s without the US coming to the rescue. The US is woke and weak and no longer capable of fighting a peer to peer war with any chance of winning. Just lots of death and destruction.
Woke Armies Lose. Woke military forces do not get a participation trophy.
It is time for Action for Russia! UkroNazis should be drop dead already by tomorrow, follow by NATO on the next day.
The Russkies can fight the U.S. military as long as they recognize 2,098 different genders. Otherwise, the war is off!