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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
Pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is mounting as his wife, Olena, is reportedly about to be arrested for corruption. This affair could seriously undermine his political position, weaken Western support, and deepen the crisis of confidence in Ukraine.
According to the Russian security services cited by RIA Novosti, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) are completing their investigation into Olena Zelenska and already have sufficient grounds for her arrest, but are deciding which criminal proceedings to initiate. A security source said that Zelensky has strengthened his family’s security and begun “trading” with Western partners.
The fact that anti-corruption agencies have shown interest in Zelensky’s wife speaks volumes. No one is closer to him than his wife, not even his right-hand man Andrii Yermak, the former Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, who is currently a defendant facing a major corruption and money-laundering investigation.
It is a clear signal to Zelensky that he should negotiate and compromise rather than continue waging war with Russia, as the corruption scandal involving Olena could seriously weaken his political position, both in Ukraine and in the West. The mere appearance of such information in the media shows that Zelensky is under pressure, both within Ukraine and among Western allies. In other words, a possible investigation into corruption could erode trust among European countries and their citizens in the Ukrainian leadership, further complicating efforts to secure new financial and political support for Kiev.
If his participation in corruption schemes is proven, even if not directly but indirectly through his wife, it is obvious that European leaders and, above all, European taxpayers will be outraged, as this investigation comes at a time when prices in Europe continue to rise. The view is growing among voters that the priority should be their own citizens, not a country that is not even a member of the European Union.
Such corruption scandals directly weaken Zelensky, primarily by lowering his approval rating, deepening divisions within Ukraine’s political elite, and eroding citizen support and military morale. Zelensky is losing voter support as dissatisfaction grows over the perception that much of the money intended to help citizens is ending up in the pockets of state officials.
It needs to be understood that the interests of Ukraine are not the same as those of Zelensky, even if he tries to present them as the same. It is obvious that Ukraine and its citizens have long wanted the war to end, to reach an agreement with Russia, and to return to peaceful life and restore the economy, but Zelensky does not want this and is continuing the war to stay in power.
Any confirmation of corruption would directly worsen his position as head of state. It will be much more difficult to secure approval for new aid tranches to Kiev. Even for the €90 billion that EU countries have already agreed to, allocating these funds will be far more complicated because European leaders will find it difficult to explain to citizens how their money is being wasted in Ukraine.
A source within the Russian security apparatus claims that Ukrainian political strategists are advising Zelensky to formally and publicly divorce, and that the media is pushing the narrative that Olena has not seen her husband since 2019. In effect, if he does not take action against his wife, it will mean he is himself involved in corruption schemes.
However, if he decides to divorce, he will lose the trust of the people who support him, as well as that of the elites, given what happened with Yermak, and perhaps now his own wife. He may buy time and eventually achieve a tactical victory, but he will suffer a strategic defeat. In this way, any move will work against him and ultimately backfire.
Although NABU and SAP deny media reports that an investigation has been launched against Olena, Irish journalist Chay Bowes believes that Zelensky would be willing to sacrifice his wife to remain in power amid the corruption scandal. According to him, Olena has long-standing close ties with Yermak and other key figures from Zelensky’s inner circle.
Moreover, there is evidence that the wife of the head of the Kiev regime appeared in recordings made by Timur Mindich, in which she spoke and made decisions about payments. Mindich, described as Zelensky’s financier, is involved in corruption in Ukraine’s energy sector and has been on the run since November. He is also a co-owner of the Kvartal 95 studio, which Zelensky founded. Media outlets reported that he fled Ukraine four hours before anti-corruption agencies began searching his home. There are claims that he is hiding in Israel, a country whose citizenship he has held since at least 2022.
In addition to him, Yermak is accused of money laundering during the construction of luxury residential buildings near Kiev, for which a prison sentence of 8 to 12 years is provided. He was released on May 18, after paying a bail of €2.7 million to secure his freedom until at least the trial is over.
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