Isolation Amid Ultimatum. Pashinyan’s Policy Has Driven Armenia Into A Dead End

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On 7 January, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made harsh remarks against Armenia. According to the head of state, the neighbouring country is a source of instability and threat in the Transcaucasus. Despite two rounds of war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, a new armed conflict threatens the South Caucasus. The war could directly affect Armenian territory. The outcome of the two wars was a complete victory for Azerbaijan. The surrenderist attitude of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan only whets Baku’s appetite. The Azerbaijani leadership realises that now is the chance to put an end to the ‘Armenian problem’ once and for all.

Aliyev called on Yerevan to open the Zangezur corridor:

‘It should not act as a geographical barrier between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The Zangezur corridor should and will be opened. The sooner they realise this, the better’.

In fact, this means the internationalisation of the territory of the Syunik region of the Republic of Armenia. The establishment of direct transport links with the Republic of Turkey is very important for the Azerbaijani side. The Armenians insist that regional communications in the Syunik region should be under the jurisdiction of Yerevan. At the same time, Armenia is ready to provide Azerbaijan with rail and road communications with Nakhchivan on the same terms as Iran. Baku regards this response as a half-hearted measure.

According to Aliyev, the neighbouring republic is a ‘fascist state’.

‘Fascism in Armenia must be destroyed. It will be destroyed either by the Armenian leadership or by us,’ the Azerbaijani president insists.

Behind these words is a demand to revise the Armenian constitution, which contains a reference to the 1990 declaration of independence. The authors of the declaration wrote into the document a demand for the reunification of the territories of the former Armenian SSR with Nagorno-Karabakh. In September 2024, the Constitutional Court of Armenia ruled that the reference to the Declaration in the Fundamental Law had no legal force. Nikol Pashinyan has publicly promised to revise the Armenian constitution ‘in the name of peace’. The Azerbaijani side is urging Yerevan to resolve this issue.

However, Azerbaijan’s main ultimatum is the disarmament of Armenia. Since 2020, Pashinyan has been actively trying to diversify arms imports. The refusal to prioritise cooperation with Russia has led to an increase in arms purchases from France, India and other states. Baku sees this as preparation for a new war and an attempt to upset the balance of power in the Transcaucasus.

‘Armenia should stop arming itself immediately. France and other countries supplying it with arms should cancel these contracts. The weapons already delivered to Armenia must be returned. That is our condition,’ Aliyev demanded.

The Armenian prime minister’s response demonstrated the weakness of Yerevan’s position. According to Pashinyan, Ilham Aliyev’s harsh statements were intended to provoke an equally harsh response from Armenia. As a result, Baku will have a legitimate pretext for aggravating the situation on the border.

‘We will not go down this road, we will stick to the peaceful strategy and continue to implement the peace agenda. This means that we will not use the language of aggression, but the language of dialogue,’ Pashinyan said.

Armenian leader also responded to the statement that Armenia is a ‘fascist state’.

‘This is a calculation for a response in the spirit of ‘you yourself are a fascist’, and the situation I have described will begin to escalate. But there is another approach: we say that this is how Armenia is perceived in Azerbaijan and we try to understand why, what is the reason. On the other hand, it is obvious that there is a similar perception of Azerbaijan in the Republic of Armenia. It is these mutual perceptions that have led to the long-standing conflict’.

In essence, Nikol Pashinyan admitted that his country has nothing to counter the Azerbaijani ultimatum but pacifist rhetoric. Such pacifism is perceived as a willingness to make further concessions. Accepting Azerbaijan’s demands will lead to new ultimatums. Recently, the Azerbaijani leader floated the idea of returning Azerbaijani refugees to Armenian territory. In December, Aliyev spoke of the need to establish a dialogue between the Armenian authorities and the ‘West Azerbaijani community’. Some 300,000 people – refugees and their families – are willing to return to the former Armenian SSR.

For Armenia, Azerbaijan’s demands are tantamount to a death sentence. Sovereignty and independence can only be guaranteed with external support. But Pashinyan’s foreign policy has led to isolation. Azerbaijan and Turkey remain Yerevan’s enemies. Relations with Russia have been effectively severed, and Armenia has suspended its participation in the CSTO. The Russian military base in Gyumri will not protect the anti-Russian political regime in the event of a full-scale war. Georgia has close ties with Azerbaijan and has no intention of helping the Armenians. Iran has suffered a series of painful blows in Syria and Lebanon and is also experiencing serious socio-economic difficulties. The Iranians will not go to war for Pashinyan’s sake.

Pashinyan’s expectation of Western aid is illusory. Aliyev openly mocks the prospects of French aid to Armenia:

‘Well, how did Macron help them in 2020 or 2023? He supported them. By the hand, probably, I don’t know, by another place. That’s all. What is he capable of? We know very well’.

Such irony is appropriate. Paris is not even able to maintain its position in Africa, where it has dominated for more than a hundred years. The United States entering the war on Yerevan’s side is out of the question. Especially with the change in the presidential administration.

Pashinyan is a creation of Soros and his foundations. The Armenian prime minister is a man of the Democrats. Donald Trump does not want to get involved in conflicts around the world. The Republican Party has traditionally had good relations with Aliyev. Under George W Bush Jr, an Individual Partnership Action Plan was signed between NATO and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani troops participated in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. In his ultimatum, Ilham Aliyev not coincidentally mentioned ‘high hopes’ for the return of ‘strategic relations’ with the United States.

The only country that could guarantee the preservation of Armenia on the political map of the world is Russia. A Russian military contingent of about 3,000 men is stationed in the republic. The common border between the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan is 328 kilometres long. The 1992 Treaty of Tashkent commits Moscow to defend Armenia as a member of the CSTO in the event of aggression. But Pashinyan’s seven-year policy has destroyed any chance of Russian involvement in Armenia’s defence. An unequal battle is looming. And the outcome of the confrontation is quite predictable.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• US, Armenia Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement As Azeri Invasion Looms
• Pashinyan Regime Now Uses Armenians As Guinea Pigs For Pentagon’s Bioweapons
• Pashinyan’s Fantasies About EU/NATO Membership Won’t End Well For Armenia

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